Dynamics of close binary systems with mass exchange

The effects of non-isotropic ejection of mass from either component of a binary system on the orbital elements are studied, for the case of a small initial eccentricity of the relative orbit, when all the ejected mass falls on the other component. The problem is transformed to an equivalent two-body problem with isotropic variation of mass, plus a perturbing force which is a function of the intial conditions of ejection of the particles and their final, positions and velocities when they fall on the surface of the other star. The variation of the orbital elements are derived. It is shown that, to first-order terms in the eccentricity, the secular change of the semimajor axis is equal to the one corresponding to the case of zero initial eccentricity. On the contrary, the secular change of the eccentricity is smaller and it depends on the variations of mass ejection due to the finite eccentricity.     

Dissolved chromium in the St. Lawrence estuary

A study of dissolved chromium in the St. Lawrence estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence has been carried out. A chromium concentration of 0·7 μg l^?1 was found in the St. Lawrence River. In the turbidity maximum of the upper estuary, chromium is removed from solution onto fine-grained resuspended sediments and internally produced organic-rich floccules. A simple flux calculation shows that these processes remove ～50% of the total dissolved chromium input of the river. At salinities greater than 5‰ dissolved chromium mixes conservatively.     

A note on frame transformations with applications to geodetic datums

Rigorous equations in compact symbolic matrix notation are introduced to transform coordinates and velocities between ITRF frames and modern GPS-based geocentric geodetic datums. The theory is general but, after neglecting higher than second-order terms, it is shown that the equations revert to the formulation currently applied in most major continental datums. We discuss several examples: the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83), the European Terrestrial Reference System of 1989 (ETRS89), the Geodetic Datum of Australia of 1994 (GDA94), and the South American Geocentric Reference System (SIRGAS). Electronic Publication     

The permeability of the Elkhorn fault zone,South Park,Colorado

The purposes of this study are to use both field and modeling approaches to characterize the permeability of a fault and to assess the role of the fault on regional ground water flow. The study subject is the Elkhorn fault, a low-angle reverse fault that brings Precambrian crystalline rocks over the sediments of Colorado's South Park Basin. The fault is hypothesized to act as a low-permeability barrier to flow, restricting interaction between the crystalline aquifer and the basin sediments. To test this hypothesis and to better predict the permeability structure of the fault, we synthesized geologic data to create a geologic model of the fault, conducted aquifer tests to estimate the hydrogeologic properties of the fault zone, and used ground water modeling to test the influence of a range of hydraulic properties for the fault zone on ground water flow in the region. Our study suggests that the fault is a low-permeability feature. Estimated heads are best matched to observations by modeling the fault as a 10-foot-thick interval of low-permeability fault gouge. Steady-state flow models show that much of the flow in the study area is topographically driven near land surface. Flow rates decrease with depth in the aquifers. In the footwall, ground water moves updip in the Michigan-San Isabel syncline to discharge in the South Park Basin. In the hanging wall, ground water moves east to a regional ground water divide. Sensitivity analyses indicate that hydraulic heads are most sensitive to changes in hydraulic conductivity and recharge.     

From models to performance assessment: the conceptualization problem

Today, models are ubiquitous tools for ground water analyses. The intent of this paper is to explore philosophically the role of the conceptual model in analysis. Selection of the appropriate conceptual model is an a priori decision by the analyst. Calibration is an integral part of the modeling process. Unfortunately a wrong or incomplete conceptual model can often be adequately calibrated; good calibration of a model does not ensure a correct conceptual model. Petroleum engineers have another term for calibration; they refer to it as history matching. A caveat to the idea of history matching is that we can make a prediction with some confidence equal to the period of the history match. In other words, if we have matched a 10-year history, we can predict for 10 years with reasonable confidence; beyond 10 years the confidence in the prediction diminishes rapidly. The same rule of thumb applies to ground water model analyses. Nuclear waste disposal poses a difficult problem because the time horizon, 1000 years or longer, is well beyond the possibility of the history match (or period of calibration) in the traditional analysis. Nonetheless, numerical models appear to be the tool of choice for analyzing the safety of waste facilities. Models have a well-recognized inherent uncertainty. Performance assessment, the technique for assessing the safety of nuclear waste facilities, involves an ensemble of cascading models. Performance assessment with its ensemble of models multiplies the inherent uncertainty of the single model. The closer we can approach the idea of a long history with which to match the models, even models of nuclear waste facilities, the more confidence we will have in the analysis (and the models, including performance assessment). This thesis argues for prolonged periods of observation (perhaps as long as 300 to 1000 years) before a nuclear waste facility is finally closed.