Stochastic evaluation of fluvial to marginal marine sealing facies

Hydrocarbon top seal analyses are particularly difficult in fluvial and marginal marine settings. Although these settings often contain beds comprised of a low-permeability, clay-rich lithology associated with high quality seals, their presence does not guarantee an effective seal because individual beds within the stratal unit may be laterally discontinuous. Lateral facies changes, truncation of fine-grained beds, or the presence of crevasse splays may provide cross-stratal migration pathways, reducing the effective sealing capacity to a magnitude less than the closure height.     

Practical kinetic modeling of petroleum generation and expulsion

Models for petroleum generation used by the industry are often limited by (a) sub-optimal laboratory pyrolysis methods for studying hydrocarbon generation, (b) over-simple models of petroleum generation, (c) inappropriate mathematical methods to derive kinetic parameters by fitting laboratory data, (d) primitive models of primary migration/expulsion and its coupling with petroleum generation, and (e) insufficient use of subsurface data to constrain the models. Problems (a), (b) and (c) lead to forced compensation effects between the activation energies and frequency factors of reaction kinetics that are wholly artificial, and which yield poor extrapolations to geological conditions. Simple switch or adsorption models of expulsion are insufficient to describe the residence time of species in source rocks. Yet, the residence time controls the thermal stresses to which the species are subjected for cracking to lighter species.     

A control-volume finite-element method for three-dimensional multiphase basin modeling

In this paper we describe a 3D control-volume finite-element method to solve numerically the coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) governing geological processes involved in the evolution of sedimentary basins. These processes include sediment deposition and deformation, hydrocarbon generation, multiphase fluid flow, and heat transfer in deforming porous media.     

The thermal structure of the Dvurechenskii mud volcano and its implications for gas hydrate stability and eruption dynamics

The sediment temperature distribution at mud volcanoes provides insights into their activity and into the occurrence of gas hydrates. If ambient pressure and temperature conditions are close to the limits of the gas hydrate stability field, the sediment temperature distribution not only limits the occurrence of gas hydrates, but is itself influenced by heat production and consumption related to the formation and dissociation of gas hydrates. Located in the Sorokin Trough in the northern Black Sea, the Dvurechenskii mud volcano (DMV) was in the focus of detailed investigations during the M72/2 and M73/3a cruises of the German R/V Meteor and the ROV Quest 4000 m in February and March 2007. A large number of in-situ sediment temperature measurements were conducted from the ROV and with a sensor-equipped gravity corer. Gas hydrates were sampled in pressurized cores using a dynamic autoclave piston corer (DAPC). The thermal structure of the DMV suggests a regime of fluid flow at rates decreasing from the summit towards the edges of the mud volcano, accompanied by intermittent mud expulsion at the summit. Modeled gas hydrate dissociation temperatures reveal that the gas hydrates at the DMV are very close to the stability limits. Changes in heat flow due to variable seepage rates probably do not result in changes in sediment temperature but are compensated by gas hydrate dissociation and formation.     

Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation,sea-level rise,and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation

Salt marshes accrete both organic and inorganic sediments. Here we present analytical and numerical models of salt marsh sedimentation that, in addition to capturing inorganic processes, explicitly account for above- and belowground organic processes including root growth and decay of organic carbon. The analytical model is used to examine the bias introduced by organic processes into proxy records of sedimentation, namely ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. We find that accretion rates estimated using ²¹⁰Pb will be less than accretion rates estimated using the ¹³⁷Cs peak in steadily accreting marshes if (1) carbon decay is significant and (2) data for ²¹⁰Pb extend below the ¹³⁷Cs peak. The numerical model expands upon the analytical model by including belowground processes such as compaction and root growth, and by explicitly tracking the evolution of aboveground biomass and its effect on sedimentation rates. Using the numerical model we explore how marsh stratigraphy responds to sediment supply and the rate of sea-level rise. It is calibrated and tested using an extensive data set of both marsh stratigraphy and measurements of vegetation dynamics in a Spartina alterniflora marsh in South Carolina, USA. We find that carbon accumulation in marshes is nonlinearly related to both the supply of inorganic sediment and the rate of sea-level rise; carbon accumulation increases with sea-level rise until sea-level rise reaches a critical rate that drowns the marsh vegetation and halts carbon accumulation. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependent on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.     

Patterns and processes in the California Current System

The California Current System (CCS) is forced by the distribution of atmospheric pressure and associated winds in relation to the west coast of North America. In this paper, we begin with a simplified case of winds and a linear coast, then consider variability characteristic of the CCS, and conclude by considering future change. The CCS extends from the North Pacific Current (～50°N) to off Baja California, Mexico (～15–25°N) with a major discontinuity at Point Conception (34.5°N). Variation in atmospheric pressure affects winds and thus upwelling. Coastal, wind-driven upwelling results in nutrification and biological production and a southward coastal jet. Offshore, curl-driven upwelling results in a spatially large, productive habitat. The California Current flows equatorward and derives from the North Pacific Current and the coastal jet. Dominant modes of spatial and temporal variability in physical processes and biological responses are discussed. High surface production results in deep and bottom waters depleted in oxygen and enriched in carbon dioxide. Fishing has depleted demersal stocks more than pelagic stocks, and marine mammals, including whales, are recovering. Krill, squid, and micronekton are poorly known and merit study. Future climate change will differ from past change and thus prediction of the CCS requires an understanding of its dynamics. Of particular concern are changes in winds, stratification, and ocean chemistry.     

Evaluation of policy options for the live reef food fish trade in the province of Palawan,Western Philippines

The live reef food fish (LRFF) trade has an estimated annual retail value of US$1 billion in the Asia-Pacific region and at least US$30 million in the Philippines. Palawan Province is the trade's center accounting for as much as 55% of the commodity's total export. Concern about the LRFF trade has caused the Palawan Provincial government to take action to regulate the trade. Four key policy options to address the short-term policy objective of developing a sustainable LRFF industry through the reduction of threats associated with destructive fishing and overfishing were proposed. These four policy options and associated analyses were presented to stakeholders at three separate policy consultations. The stakeholders reached a consensus that a regulated LRFF trade was the most sensible option. As a result, the Provincial Government of Palawan took action to enact “The Palawan Live Reef Fish Ordinance of 2006”, which provides for the sustainable and integrated regulation of the LRFF industry. This provincial ordinance will assist in crafting a national policy for the LRFF trade and may also be useful in revising the 1998 Philippine Fisheries Code. The key challenge is how to translate the ordinance provisions into effective on-the-ground actions.     

Shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries

Substantial ecological, economic and social problems result from shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries. Improved understanding of industry attitudes and practices towards shark interactions assists with managing these problems. Information on fisher knowledge and new strategies for shark avoidance may benefit sharks and fishers. A study of 12 pelagic longline fisheries from eight countries shows that incentives to avoid sharks vary along a continuum, based on whether sharks represent an economic disadvantage or advantage. Shark avoidance practices are limited, including avoiding certain areas, moving when shark interaction rates are high, using fish instead of squid for bait and deeper setting. Some conventionally employed fishing gear and methods used to target non-shark species contribute to shark avoidance. Shark repellents hold promise; more research and development is needed. Development of specifically designed equipment to discard sharks could improve shark post release survival prospects, reduce gear loss and improve crew safety. With expanding exploitation of sharks for fins and meat, improved data collection, monitoring and precautionary shark management measures are needed to ensure that shark fishing mortality levels are sustainable.     

The effect of a topographic high on the morphological stability of a two-inlet bay system

The cross-sectional stability of two tidal inlets connecting the same back-barrier lagoon to the ocean is investigated. The condition for equilibrium is the cross-sectional area tidal prism relationship. In an earlier study [Van de Kreeke, J., 1990. Can multiple inlets be stable? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 30: 261–273.], using the same equilibrium condition, it was concluded that where two inlets connect the same basin to the ocean ultimately one inlet will close. One of the major assumptions in that study was that the water level in the basin fluctuated uniformly. In hindsight this assumption might be too restrictive. For example, in the Wadden Sea the back barrier lagoon consists of a series of basins, rather than one single basin, separated by topographic highs. These topographic highs limit but do not exclude the exchange of water between the sub-basins. For this reason in the present study, a topographic high in the form of a weir was added, separating the back-barrier lagoon in two sub-basins. The water level in the sub-basins, rather than in the back-barrier as a whole, is assumed to fluctuate uniformly. For this schematization the hydrodynamic equations are solved using a finite difference method. The results, together with the equilibrium condition, yield the equilibrium flow curve for each of the inlets. The intersections of the two equilibrium flow curves represent combinations of cross-sectional areas for which both inlets are in equilibrium. The stability of the equilibriums was investigated using a non-linear stability analysis resulting in a flow diagram. Calculations were carried out for different inlet and weir characteristics. Sinussoidal tides were the same for both inlets. The results show that for relatively large wetted cross-sectional areas over the topographic high, approaching the situation of a single basin, there are no combinations of inlet cross-sectional areas for which both inlets are in a stable equilibrium. This supports the conclusion in the earlier study. For relatively small wetted cross-sectional areas over the topographic high there is one set of stable equilibriums. In that case the two-inlet bay system approaches that of two single-inlet bay systems.