Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Tropospheric Ozone in a Global-Scale Three-Dimensional Lagrangian Model and Its Response to NOX Emission Controls

A three-dimensional Lagrangian tropospheric chemistry modelis used toinvestigate the impact of human activities on the tropospheric distributionofozone and hydroxyl radicals. The model describes the behaviour of 50 speciesincluding methane, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide andnineorganic compounds emitted from human activities and a range of other sources.Thechemical mechanism involves about 100 chemical reactions of which 16 arephotochemical reactions whose diurnal dependence is treated in full. The modelutilises a five minute chemistry time step and a three hour advection timestepfor the 50,000 air parcels. Meteorological data for the winds, temperatures,clouds and so on are taken from the UK Meteorological Office global model for1994 onwards. The impacts of a 50% reduction in European NO_Xemissions onglobal ozone concentrations are assessed. Surface ozoneconcentrations decrease in summertime and rise in wintertime, but to differentextents.     

On the evaluation of an integral connected with the thermonuclear reaction rate in closed form

The standard expression of the reaction rate for low-energy, nonresonant nuclear reactions in nondegenerate plasma contains a parameter-dependent integral which in all previous calculations with physical or astrophysical background is considered as not capable of being evaluated in a closed form. So one usually resorts to approximation methods concerning large values of the parameter. At first we point out that CONSUL (1964) has given a series representation of the integral which was identified with a MEIJER 's G-function by MATHAI (1971). Next, in view of a physically more exact determination of the reaction rate formula, especially in connection with calculations concerning stellar energy generation, we consider a more general integral containing the mentioned one as special case and give an approximation-free representation by means of MEIJER 's G-function. The G-function so obtained may be conceived as complex-valued continuation of CONSUL 's series representation of a certain class of integrals contained in the considered one. From the series we extract a small parameter approximation of the special integral.     

Application of topo-edaphic factors and remotely sensed vegetation indices to enhance biomass estimation in a heterogeneous landscape in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania

Estimating tropical biomass is critical for establishment of conservation inventories and landscape monitoring. However, monitoring biomass in a complex and dynamic environment using traditional methods is challenging. Recently, biomass estimates based on remotely sensed data and ecological variables have shown great potential. The present study explored the utility of remotely sensed data and topo-edaphic factors to improve biomass estimation in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. Twenty-nine vegetation indices were calculated from RapidEye data, while topo-edaphic factors were taken from field measurements. Results showed that using topo-edaphic variables or vegetation indices, biomass could be predicted with an R² of 0.4. A combination of topo-edaphic variables and vegetation indices improved the prediction accuracy to an R² of 0.6. Results further showed a decrease in biomass estimates from 1162 ton ha^?1 in 1980 to 285.38 ton ha^?1 in 2012. This study demonstrates the value of combining remotely sensed data with topo-edaphic variables in biomass estimation.     

Engineering geomorphological characterisation of the Vajont Slide,Italy, and a new interpretation of the chronology and evolution of the landslide

Although the 1963 Vajont Slide in Italy has been extensively studied for over 50 years, its regional geological and geomorphological context has been neglected. In this paper, we use field observations and remote sensing data to elucidate the interaction between endogenic and exogenic processes that brought the north slope of Monte Toc to failure. We present the first detailed pre- and post-failure engineering geomorphology maps of the slide area. The maps delineate two main landslide blocks, several sub-blocks, compressional and extensional zones, and secondary failures in the deposit. The maps provide new insights into the kinematics, dynamics and evolution of the slide. Finally, we discuss the origin of Vajont Gorge and a prehistoric failure that occurred at the same location as the 1963 slide. We propose, as part of a newly developed multi-stage landscape evolution sequence, that the prehistoric failure was a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (sackung) that initiated during deglaciation and continued to slowly move until the catastrophic failure in 1963. We argue that the gorge was created by these deep-seated slow movements.