Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unstructured,anisotropic mesh generation for the Northwestern European continental shelf,the continental slope and the neighbouring ocean

A new mesh refinement strategy for generating high quality unstructured meshes of the Northwestern European continental shelf, the continental slope and the neighbouring ocean is presented. Our objective is to demonstrate the ability of anisotropic unstructured meshes to adequately address the challenge of simulating the hydrodynamics occurring in these three regions within a unique mesh. The refinement criteria blend several hydrodynamic considerations as the tidal wave propagation on the continental shelf and the hydrostatic consistency condition in steep areas. Several meshes illustrate both the validity and the efficiency of the refinement strategy. The selection of the refinement parameters is discussed. Finally, an attempt is made to take into account tidal ellipses, providing another cause for anisotropy in the mesh.     

The November 2002 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano,La Réunion Island: ground deformation,seismicity, and pit crater collapse

An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence. After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns, the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally 5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano, causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage 5.     

First comparisons of precipitable water vapor estimation using GPS and water vapor radiometers at the Royal Observatory of Belgium

We compare precipitable water vapor (PWV) time series measured by water vapor radiometers (WVRs) to PWV time series estimated using global positioning system (GPS) observations in a regional network of stations in western Europe. Inside this network, we focus on the baseline Brussels – Wettzell which presents the advantage to have the collocation of a GPS receiver and a WVR at both endpoints. The comparison between our GPS and WVR estimations of precipitable water vapor shows an agreement at the millimeter level. In addition, we show that the zenith total delay (ZTD) estimations computed with our GPS processing strategy agrees with the GPS estimations of ZTD done by the CODE analysis center at the millimeter level. Electronic Publication     

Conjoint modeling of residential group preferences: A comparison of the internal validity of hierarchical information integration approaches

 In this paper, two approaches for measuring residential group preferences, based on the method of Hierarchical Information Integration (HII), are compared. In particular, the hypothesis that group-based preference models estimated from integrated HII experiments better predict group preferences than part individual-based group models estimated from classical HII experiments is tested. To that effect, the models' ability to predict group preferences for new residential alternatives is compared in a study of residential preferences of co-ops. Results indicate that integrated HII group experiments indeed result in better predictions of residential preferences.     

晚更新世以来南天山阿克苏地区地壳缩短率

作者研究南天山中段阿克苏—库车山前带活动断层,发现断层切过托木尔峰山麓第四纪冰碛物和阶地,形成2条断层崖。通过测量阶地和冰碛物的变形量,推断阶地和冰碛物的沉积年代,估算南天山中段阿克苏地区晚更新世以来的地壳缩短率可能为1.85mm/a。这个缩短率与库尔勒地区(2mm/a)和柯坪地区(1.8mm/a)的地壳缩短率一致,但是小于南天山西段喀什地区(10±2mm/a)和天山东段玛纳斯地区(6±3mm/a)的地壳缩短率,表明天山不同地段的地壳缩短率存在明显差异。     

Predicting channel patterns

The proposed distinction between meandering and braided river channel patterns, on the basis of bankfull specific stream power and bed material size, is analysed and rejected. Only by using regime-based estimates of channel widths (rather than actual widths) has discrimination been achieved, and it is argued that this procedure is unacceptable.An alternative is to explore the patterning processes underlying the marked pattern scatter on bankfull stream power/bed material size plots. Of the five sets of patterning processes, large-scale bedform development and stability is seen as especially important for meandering and braiding. For gravel-bed rivers, bedforms developed at around or above bankfull stage appear important for pattern generation, with braiding relating to higher excess shear stress and Froude number. There seems to be an upper threshold to both meandering and braiding which is achieved at extreme discharges and steep gradients, as on steep alluvial fans, rather than for the rivers with available flow data here considered. For sand-bed rivers with greater excess shear stress, the equivalent upper plane bed threshold may occur below bankfull, with bed material mobility and bedform modification occurring over a wider range of sub-bankfull discharges. Sand-bed channel margin outlines appear to be less perturbed by bedform effects than gravel bed planforms, and they may have naturally straight or sinuous planforms. Bedform relief may nevertheless lead to some being designated as braided when viewed at low flows.It is concluded that the use of a single-stage stream power measure and bed material size alone is unlikely to achieve meandering/braiding discrimination.     

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.