Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

Modelling landscape evolution

Geomorphology is currently in a period of resurgence as we seek to explain the diversity, origins and dynamics of terrain on the Earth and other planets in an era of increased environmental awareness. Yet there is a great deal we still do not know about the physics and chemistry of the processes that weaken rock and transport mass across a planet's surface. Discovering and refining the relevant geomorphic transport functions requires a combination of careful field measurements, lab experiments, and use of longer‐term natural experiments to test current theory and develop new understandings. Landscape evolution models have an important role to play in sharpening our thinking, guiding us toward the right observables, and mapping out the logical consequences of transport laws, both alone and in combination with other salient processes. Improved quantitative characterization of terrain and process, and an ever‐improving theory that describes the continual modification of topography by the many and varied processes that shape it, together with improved observation and qualitative and quantitative modelling of geology, vegetation and erosion processes, will provide insights into the mechanisms that control catchment form and function. This paper reviews landscape theory – in the form of numerical models of drainage basin evolution and the current knowledge gaps and future computing challenges that exist. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure-specific selection of earthquake ground motions for the reliable design and assessment of structures

A decision support process is presented to accommodate selecting and scaling of earthquake motions as required for the time domain analysis of structures. Code-compatible suites of seismic motions are provided being, at the same time, prequalified through a multi-criterion approach to induce response parameters with reduced variability. The latter is imperative to increase the reliability of the average response values, normally required for the code-prescribed design verification of structures. Structural attributes like the dynamic characteristics as well as criteria related to variability of seismic motions and their compliance with a target spectrum are quantified through a newly introduced index, δ _sv–sc , which aims to prioritize motions suites for response history analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure presented, the structural model of a multi-story building was subjected to numerous suites of motions that were highly ranked according to both the proposed approach (δ _sv–sc ) and the conventional one (δ _conv ), that is commonly used for earthquake records selection and scaling. The findings from numerous linear response history analyses reveal the superiority of the proposed multi-criterion approach, as it extensively reduces the intra-suite structural response variability and consequently, increases the reliability of the design values. The relation between the target reliability in assessing structural response and the size of the suite of motions selected was also investigated, further demonstrating the efficiency of the proposed selection procedure to achieve higher response reliability levels with smaller samples of ground motion.     

Tidal evolution in close binary systems,III

In this paper we shall investigate the energy of close binary systems of constant momentum takng into consideration the first-order effects of rotation and tidal attraction of the components of finite size. The equations for the momentum and the energy of the system will be set up in Section 2, making use of terms including the effects of finite size of the components of finite degree of central condensation. In Section 3 perturbation theory is applied to these equations using the results of Kopal (1972b) as our initial values. In Section 4 we shall compare our results with the initial values and then discuss variations in our constants and the application to various real systems.     

Growth of multilayered polycrystalline reaction rims in the MgO–SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> system,part II: modelling

Part I of this contribution (Gardés et al. in Contrib Mineral Petrol, 2010) reported time- and temperature-dependent experimental growth of polycrystalline forsterite-enstatite double layers between single crystals of periclase and quartz, and enstatite single layers between forsterite and quartz. Both double and single layers displayed growth rates decreasing with time and pronounced grain coarsening. Here, a model is presented for the growth of the layers that couples grain boundary diffusion and grain coarsening to interpret the drop of the growth rates. It results that the growth of the layers is such that (Δx)² ∝ t ^1−1/n , where Δx is the layer thickness and n the grain coarsening exponent, as experimentally observed. It is shown that component transport occurs mainly by grain boundary diffusion and that the contribution of volume diffusion is negligible. Assuming a value of 1 nm for the effective grain boundary width, the following Arrhenius laws for MgO grain boundary diffusion are derived: log D _gb,0^Fo (m²/s) = −2.71 ± 1.03 and E _gb^Fo = 329 ± 30 kJ/mol in forsterite and log D _gb,0^En (m²/s) = 0.13 ± 1.31 and E _gb^En = 417 ± 38 kJ/mol in enstatite. The different activation energies are responsible for the changes in the enstatite/forsterite thickness ratio with varying temperature. We show that significant biases are introduced if grain boundary diffusion-controlled rim growth is modelled assuming constant bulk diffusivities so that differences in activation energies of more than 100 kJ/mol may arise. It is thus important to consider grain coarsening when modelling layered reaction zones because they are usually polycrystalline and controlled by grain boundary transport.     

The fluvial and pyroclastic deposits of the Cagayan Basin, Northern Luzon, Philippines—an example of non-marine volcaniclastic sedimentation in an interarc basin

ABSTRACT The Cagayan basin of Northern Luzon, an interarc basin 250 km long and 80 km wide, contains a 900 m thick sequence of Plio-Pleistocene fluvial and pyroclastic deposits. These deposits are divided into two formations, the Ilagan and Awidon Mesa, and three lithofacies associations. The facies, which are interpreted as meandering stream, braided stream, lahar, and pyroclastic flow and fall deposits, occur in a coarsening upward sequence. Meandering stream deposits interbedded with tuffs are overlain by braided stream deposits interbedded with coarser pyroclastic deposits; lahars and ignimbrites. The coarsening upward volcaniclastic deposits reflect the tectonic and volcanic evolution of the adjacent Cordillera Central volcanic arc. Uplift of the arc resulted in the progradation of coarser clastics further into the basin, the development of an alluvial fan, and migration of the basin depocentre away from the arc. The coarsening of the pyroclastic deposits reflects the development of a more proximal calc-alkaline volcanic belt in the maturing volcanic arc. The Cagayan basin sediments serve as an example of the type and sequence of non marine volcaniclastic sediments that may form in other interarc basins. This is because the tectonic and volcanic processes which controlled sedimentation in the Cagayan basin also affect other arc systems and will therefore control or significantly influence volcaniclastic sedimentation in other interarc basins.     

震后快速钻探:历史、现状与未来

大地震发生后立即在断层带上进行钻探可以帮助我们获取更多的地震信息,尤其是可获得决定断层动态破裂的摩擦水平和强度,观测断层的愈合过程及可能触发余震的应力变化,并可获取控制破裂过程的重要的物理和化学属性。在2008年11月由国际大陆科学钻探项目（ICDP）和南加州地震中心（SCEC）联合在日本东京举办的为期3天的“震后快速钻探：历史、现状与未来”研讨会上,