Comparison between measured and modelled cloudless‐sky solar irradiances at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere

Abstract

Cloudless‐sky solar fluxes calculated by the radiative transfer algorithm used in the Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation climate model are compared with measurements of upwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and downwelling radiation at the surface. The 12‐layer model partitions the solar spectrum into two broad wavebands (0.25–0.68 and 0.68–4.00 μm). The comparison utilized TOA fluxes estimated from Nimbus‐ 7 measurements and measured downwelling fluxes at the surface for Kalgoorlie, West Australia, and downwelling fluxes at the surface for Woodbridge, Ontario. Model estimates and measurements agreed to within experimental error for most solar zenith angles. Estimates improved, especially at Woodbridge, when aerosol effects were included. The mean bias error was less than 4% for surface irradiance and less than 6% for upwelling TOA irradiance, which produces a TOA albedo error of about 0.01.     

The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability.     

Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF22 study, with a limited set of model solutions for the 2 °C target. They have applied the methodology of observational meta-analysis inappropriately to policy meta-analysis, where the number of results is often very small and the basis for imputing a statistical distribution does not usually exist. They have mixed direct costs with net costs in terms of %GDP. Their method of “correcting” for missing data with (high) costs of stringent mitigation could equally be applied to correcting the data for omission of mitigation options such as biomass energy with carbon capture so reducing the cost estimates. And finally they implicitly assume that the same policy combinations and mitigation options are applied for all climate scenarios, when more stringent scenarios may require more stringent policies and options, such as regulation or BECCS. The conclusion from the literature is more appropriately that the costs are highly uncertain, that they can equally be positive or negative (gains) and that models which fail to solve for stringent mitigations are not fit for purpose.     

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Super-speed centrifugation at sea using a gimballed platform

The use of a super-speed centrifuge at sea for the recovery of suspended solids or interstitial pore fluids requires a stabilizing platform. In this report, we describe a simple platform gimball and magnetic rotor stabilizer that have been fitted to a Sorvall model SS_?3 super-speed centrifuge. In principle, any centrifuge of comparable weight (86 kg) could be easily adapted for use at sea with gimbals of similar design.The magnetic rotor coupler is designed to eliminate rotor precession when the centrifuge is operated at sea. This attachment is particularly useful when the Sorvall SS_?3 (equipped with a conventional rotor) is used to recover interstitial pore fluids.     

The angular dimensions of extragalactic radio sources

The angular dimensions of compact components of extragalactic radio sources are calculated theoretically on three hypotheses: (a) magnetic field and relativistic particles energy equipartition; (b) equilibrium between synchrotron and Compton losses; (c) radiative lifetime of the same order as the source's light-travel time. Using angular measurements of 73 radio components, divided into two groups (multicomponent and single-component sources), a correcting formulae is derived to reduce the theoretical values to the observed values.This work was partially supported by the Brasilian research agency CNPq.     

Geochemical investigation of Archaean Bimodal and Dwalile metamorphic suites,Ancient Gneiss Complex,Swaziland

The bimodal suite (BMS) comprises leucotonalitic and trondhjemitic gneisses interlayered with amphibolites. Based on geochemical parameters three main groups of siliceous gneiss are recognized: (i) SiO₂ < 73%, Al₂O₃ > 14%, and fractionated light rare-earth element (REE) and flat heavy REE patterns; (ii) SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ contents similar to (i) but with strongly fractionated REE patterns with steep heavy REE slopes; (iii) SiO₂ > 73%, Al₂O₃ < 14%, Zr ～ 500 ppm and high contents of total REE having fractionated light REE and flat heavy REE patterns with large negative Eu anomalies. The interlayered amphibolites have major element abundances similar to those of basaltic komatiites, Mg-tholeiites and Fe-rich tholeiites. The former have gently sloping REE patterns, whereas the Mg-tholeiites have non-uniform REE patterns ranging from flat (～ 10 times chondrite) to strongly light REE-enriched. The Fe-rich amphibolites have flat REE patterns at 20–30 times chondrite.The Dwalile metamorphic suite, which is preserved in the keels of synforms within the BMS, includes peridotitic komatiites that have depleted light REE patterns similar to those of compositionally similar volcanics in the Onverwacht Group, Barberton, basaltic komatiites and tholeiites. The basaltic komatiites have REE patterns parallel to those of the BMS basaltic komatiites but with lower total REE contents. The Dwalile tholeiites have flat REE patterns.The basic and ultrabasic liquids were derived by partial melting of a mantle source which may have been heterogeneous or the heterogeneity may have resulted from sequential melting of the mantle source. The Fe-rich amphibolites were derived either from liquids generated at shallow levels or from liquids generated at depth which subsequently underwent extensive fractionation.