Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

Understanding and partitioning future climates for Australian regions from CMIP3 using ocean warming indices

The patterns of large-scale climate change over the 21st century simulated by 23 CMIP3 global climate models are analyzed to provide understanding of the range of projected temperature T and precipitation P changes for Australia published in 2007. Means of change, standardized by the global warming, within each of 11 regions are calculated for each model. Correlations between regions across the 23 models indicate that the changes are rather coherent across much of the mainland. The all-Australian average changes are also well correlated with a pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures. A Pacific-Indian Dipole index, representing this pattern, correlates strongly with Australian P. It also correlates well with variables in Southeast Asia. The global warming itself correlates well with Australian warming. These two indices of large-scale ocean warming are used to partition the 23 models into four representative future climates. For Australia overall, these can be described as much warmer and drier, much warmer, warmer and drier, and warmer. The four climates span much of the range of the earlier Australian projections over most of the continent. Further, they may be reproduced by a downscaling model forced with the SST anomalies. An assessment of the realism of the ocean pattern changes has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of projections, both for Australia and beyond.     

Between coercion and consent: the politics of “Cooperative Governance” at a time of “Austerity Localism” in London

At a time of “austerity localism”, this paper explores how local authorities in London, England, are simultaneously addressing the dual pressures of delivering fiscal retrenchment and of enrolling citizens in new participatory public service arrangements, asking whether “these trends pull against one another, in opposite directions, or whether they are the tough and tender dimensions of a singular process: austerian management” Drawing on empirical research into the London Borough of Lambeth’s Cooperative Council agenda, as well as Foucauldian and Gramscian critiques of participatory network governance theories and practice, this paper shows how participatory forms of governance can be folded into the logic of hierarchy and coercion through various governmental technologies of performance and agency (consent), and through tactics of administrative domination (coercion). As budget cuts continue to affect local government in England, this paper concludes that although small experiments in participatory governance may persist, the dominant mode of governance is likely to shift towards more hierarchical and coercive forms.     

A new record of Colpocoryphe (Trilobita) from the Skiddaw Group of the Cross Fell inlier,northern England

The trilobite Colpocoryphe sp. is described for the first time from the Kirkland Formation, Llanvirn, of the Skiddaw Group in the Cross Fell inlier. It is considered to be closely related to a form previously recorded from the upper Arenig of the Lake District. This new record supports the previously suggested Gondwanan aspects of the northern England Avalonian fauna during the early Ordovician. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of Stock Market Development and CO2 Emissions on OECD Countries via an Empirical Model

Accompanying economic growth, CO₂ emissions have polluted the natural environment worldwide. This study highlights the special problems with stock market development and CO₂ emissions in 25 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during 1971–2007 to trace the trend of CO₂ emissions while countries grow their economies. A panel‐data model is applied to analyze the relationships between stock market (SM) development, energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), and CO₂ emissions in 25 OECD countries. Low‐GDP countries show different results from high‐GDP countries in the trends of SM development and CO₂ emissions, and dynamic effects occur in SM development and CO₂ emissions under various GDP conditions. There is a negative relationship between SM development and CO₂ emissions if countries enjoy high economic growth, which means that these countries avoid CO₂ emissions through SM development. However, a positive relationship is found between SM development and CO₂ emissions if countries experience low economic growth, which means that SM development does not show the boycott‐effect relationship with CO₂ emissions when countries experience low levels of economic development. This study shows a correlation between SM development and CO₂ emissions among OECD countries.     

Research Note: Experimental measurements of Q‐contrast reflections

While seismic reflection amplitudes are generally determined by real acoustical impedance contrasts, there has been recent interest in reflections due to contrasts in seismic‐Q. Herein we compare theoretical and modelled seismic reflection amplitudes for two different cases of material contrasts. In case A, we examine reflections from material interfaces that have a large contrast in real‐valued impedance () with virtually no contrast in seismic‐Q. In case B, we examine reflections from material interfaces that have virtually no contrast in but that have very large seismic‐Q contrasts. The complex‐valued reflection coefficient formula predicts non‐zero seismic reflection amplitudes for both cases. We choose physical materials that typify the physics of both case A and case B. Physical modelling experiments show significantly large reflections for both cases – with the reflections in the two cases being phase shifted with respect to each other, as predicted theoretically. While these modelling experiments show the existence of reflections that are predicted by theory, there are still intriguing questions regarding the size of the Q‐contrast reflections, the existence of large Q‐contrast reflections in reservoir rocks and the possible application of Q‐reflection analysis to viscosity estimation in heavy oilfields.     

Roundhouse (RND) Mountain Top Research Site: Measurements and Uncertainties for Winter Alpine Weather Conditions

The objective of this work is to better understand and summarize the mountain meteorological observations collected during the Science of Nowcasting Winter Weather for the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics (SNOW-V10) project that was supported by the Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling (FRAM) project. The Roundhouse (RND) meteorological station was located 1,856 m above sea level that is subject to the winter extreme weather conditions. Below this site, there were three additional observation sites at 1,640, 1,320, and 774 m. These four stations provided some or all the following measurements at 1 min resolution: precipitation rate (PR) and amount, cloud/fog microphysics, 3D wind speed (horizontal wind speed, U _h; vertical air velocity, w _a), visibility (Vis), infrared (IR) and shortwave (SW) radiative fluxes, temperature (T) and relative humidity with respect to water (RH_w), and aerosol observations. In this work, comparisons are made to assess the uncertainties and variability for the measurements of Vis, RH_w, T, PR, and wind for various winter weather conditions. The ground-based cloud imaging probe (GCIP) measurements of snow particles using a profiling microwave radiometer (PMWR) data have also been shown to assess the icing conditions. Overall, the conclusions suggest that uncertainties in the measurements of Vis, PR, T, and RH can be as large as 50, >60, 50, and >20 %, respectively, and these numbers may increase depending on U _h, T, Vis, and PR magnitude. Variability of observations along the Whistler Mountain slope (~500 m) suggested that to verify the models, model space resolution should be better than 100 m and time scales better than 1 min. It is also concluded that differences between observed and model based parameters are strongly related to a model’s capability of accurate prediction of liquid water content (LWC), PR, and RH_w over complex topography.