Remnant riparian vegetation,sediment and nutrient loads,and river rehabilitation in subtropical Australia

A decline in the ecosystem health of Australia's Moreton Bay, a Ramsar wetland of international significance, has been attributed to sediments and nutrients derived from catchment sources. To address this decline the regional management plan has set the target of reducing the loads by 50%. Reforestation of the channel network has been proposed as the means to achieve this reduction, but the extent of revegetation required is uncertain. Here we test the hypothesis that sediment and nutrient loads from catchments decrease proportionally with the increasing proportion of the stream length draining remnant vegetation. As part of a routine regional water quality monitoring program sediment and nutrient loads were measured in 186 flow events across 22 sub‐catchments with different proportions of remnant woodland. Using multiple linear regression analysis we develop a predictive model for pollutant loads. Of the attributes examined a combination of runoff and the proportion of the stream length draining remnant vegetation was the best predictor. The sediment yield per unit area from a catchment containing no remnant vegetation is predicted to be between 50 and 200 times that of a fully vegetated channel network; total phosphorus between 25 and 60 times; total nitrogen between 1.6 and 4.1 times. There are ~48 000 km of streams in the region of which 32% drain areas of remnant vegetation. Of these 17 095 km are above the region's water storage dams. We estimate that decreasing the sediment and phosphorus loads to Moreton Bay by 50% would involve rehabilitating ~6350 km of the channel network below the dams; halving the total nitrogen load would require almost complete restoration of the channel network. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the upper bounding approach to thermal convection at moderate rayleigh numbers

Abstract

Two upper bounding problems for thermal convection in a layer of fluid contained between perfectly conducting stress-free boundaries are treated numerically. Since the Euler equations resulting from this variational approach are simpler than the Navier-Stokes equations, they allow numerical calculations to be carried out economically to fairly large values of the Rayleigh number. The upper bounding problem formulated by Howard (1963), which yields a Nusselt number independent of Prandtl number, diverges from the correct behavior as the Rayleigh number increases. In hopes of coming closer to results of previous investigations of the Boussinesq equations of motion, a more restrictive upper bounding problem is formulated. For large Prandtl numbers the momentum equation is linearized and is used as an explicit side constraint on the variational problem, thereby forcing the solutions to more closely resemble the solutions of the Boussinesq equations. Numerical calculations at values of the Rayleigh number up to 1.5 × 10⁵ indicate that the additional constraint decreases the upper bound on the Nusselt number; it appears that this upper bound differs by only a multiplicative factor from that calculated from solutions of the full equations of motion and may be a reasonable approximation for large Rayleigh numbers.     

Spatial Risk Analysis of Hydraulic Fracturing near Abandoned and Converted Oil and Gas Wells

Interaction between hydraulically generated fractures and existing wells (frac hits) could represent a potential risk to groundwater. In particular, frac hits on abandoned oil and gas wells could lead to upward leakage into overlying aquifers, provided migration pathways are present along the abandoned well. However, potential risk to groundwater is relatively unknown because few studies have investigated the probability of frac hits on abandoned wells. In this study, actual numbers of frac hits were not determined. Rather, the probability for abandoned wells to intersect hypothetical stimulated reservoir sizes of horizontal wells was investigated. Well data were compiled and analyzed for location and reservoir information, and sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying assumed sizes of stimulated reservoirs. This study used public and industry data for the Eagle Ford Shale play in south Texas, with specific attention paid to abandoned oil and gas wells converted into water wells (converted wells). In counties with Eagle Ford Shale activity, well‐data analysis identified 55,720 abandoned wells with a median age of 1983, and 2400 converted wells with a median age of 1954. The most aggressive scenario resulted in 823 abandoned wells and 184 converted wells intersecting the largest assumed stimulated reservoir size. Analysis showed abandoned wells have the potential to be intersected by multiple stimulated reservoirs, and risks for intersection would increase if currently permitted horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford Shale are actually completed. Results underscore the need to evaluate historical oil and gas activities in areas with modern unconventional oil and gas activities.     

Influence of Hydraulic Fracturing on Overlying Aquifers in the Presence of Leaky Abandoned Wells

The association between hydrocarbon‐rich reservoirs and organic‐rich source rocks means unconventional oil and gas plays usually occur in mature sedimentary basins—where large‐scale conventional development has already taken place. Abandoned wells in proximity to hydraulic fracturing could be affected by increased fluid pressures and corresponding newly generated fractures that directly connect (frac hit) to an abandoned well or to existing fractures intersecting an abandoned well. If contaminants migrate to a pathway hydraulically connected to an abandoned well, upward leakage may occur. Potential effects of hydraulic fracturing on upward flow through a particular type of leaky abandoned well—abandoned oil and gas wells converted into water wells were investigated using numerical modeling. Several factors that affect flow to leaky wells were considered including proximity of a leaky well to hydraulic fracturing, flowback, production, and leaky well abandonment methods. The numerical model used historical records and available industry data for the Eagle Ford Shale play in south Texas. Numerical simulations indicate that upward contaminant migration could occur through leaky converted wells if certain spatial and hydraulic conditions exist. Upward flow through leaky converted wells increased with proximity to hydraulic fracturing, but decreased when flowback and production occurred. Volumetric flow rates ranged between 0 and 0.086 m³/d for hydraulic‐fracturing scenarios. Potential groundwater impacts should be paired with plausible transport mechanisms, and upward flow through leaky abandoned wells could be unrelated to hydraulic fracturing. The results also underscore the need to evaluate historical activities.     

Sea-level data for parts of the Bering-Chukchi shelves of Beringia from 19,000 to 10,000 14C yr B.P.

Sea-level changes in Beringia are especially significant because they affect the migration of land plants and animals between Asia and North America, and marine plants and animals between the Pacific and Arctic oceans. Previous studies of cores from the Bering and Chukchi shelves produced sea-level curves. Evaluation of these data suggests that nine of the radiocarbon-dated estimates of sea-level position are most reliable for the time period 19,000 to 10,000 yr B.P. The trend of these nine points is proposed as the basis for a regional sea-level curve for central Beringia. Constraints on the data must be noted, however, by anyone using them.     

Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3°C, +17% rainfall; +2°C, ?7% rainfall; and +3°C, ?46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO₂ were found to offset declines in forage production under 2°C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.     

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior by overlaying simulated fire perimeters with mapped HVRA polygons to estimate conditional distributions of HVRA area burned. This information can be especially useful for assessing risks where cumulative effects and the spatial pattern and extent of area burned influence HVRA response to fire. We illustrate our modeling approach and demonstrate application across real-world landscapes for two case studies: first, a comparative analysis of exposure and area burned across ten municipal watersheds on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Montana, USA, and second, fireshed delineation and exposure analysis of a geographically isolated and limited area of critical wildlife habitat on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests in Colorado, USA. We highlight how this information can be used to inform prioritization and mitigation decisions and can be used complementarily with more traditional pixel-based burn probability and fire intensity metrics in an expanded exposure analysis framework.     

Effect of groundwater pH and ionic strength on strontium sorption in aquifer sediments: Implications for Sr mobility at contaminated nuclear sites

Strontium-90 is a beta emitting radionuclide produced during nuclear fission, and is a problem contaminant at many nuclear facilities. Transport of ⁹⁰Sr in groundwaters is primarily controlled by sorption reactions with aquifer sediments. The extent of sorption is controlled by the geochemistry of the groundwater and sediment mineralogy. Here, batch sorption experiments were used to examine the sorption behaviour of ⁹⁰Sr in sediment–water systems representative of the UK Sellafield nuclear site based on groundwater and contaminant fluid compositions. In experiments with low ionic strength groundwaters (<0.01 mol L⁻¹), pH variation is the main control on sorption. The sorption edge for ⁹⁰Sr was observed between pH 4 and 6 with maximum sorption occurring (K_d ∼ 10³ L kg⁻¹) at pH 6–8. At ionic strengths above 10 mmol L⁻¹, and at pH values between 6 and 8, cation exchange processes reduced ⁹⁰Sr uptake to the sediment. This exchange process explains the lower ⁹⁰Sr sorption (K_d ∼ 40 L kg⁻¹) in the presence of artificial Magnox tank liquor (IS = 29 mmol L⁻¹). Strontium K-edge EXAFS spectra collected from sediments incubated with Sr²⁺ in either HCO₃-buffered groundwater or artificial Magnox tank liquor, revealed a coordination environment of ∼9 O atoms at 2.58–2.61 Å after 10 days. This is equivalent to the Sr²⁺ hydration sphere for the aqueous ion and indicates that Sr occurs primarily in outer sphere sorption complexes. No change was observed in the Sr sorption environment with EXAFS analysis after 365 days incubation. Sequential extractions performed on sediments after 365 days also found that ∼80% of solid associated ⁹⁰Sr was exchangeable with 1 M MgCl₂ in all experiments. These results suggest that over long periods, ⁹⁰Sr in contaminated sediments will remain primarily in weakly bound surface complexes. Therefore, if groundwater ionic strength increases (e.g. by saline intrusion related to sea level rise or by design during site remediation) then substantial remobilisation of ⁹⁰Sr is to be expected.     

Channel evolution of Des Moines Lobe till drainage ditches in southern Minnesota (USA)

Some drainage ditches in the intensively managed row-crop agricultural region of southern Minnesota evolved from a trapezoidal form to multi-staged channel forms similar to natural streams. Older ditches constructed in cohesive sediment of the Des Moines Lobe till tend to follow a channel evolution model developed by Simon and Hupp. Site cross sections, longitudinal water and bed profiles and bed material particle size were determined according to Harrelson and others at 24 older ditch reaches, 5 newly constructed ditch reaches and 13 natural stream reaches. Morphological features were hypothesized to change from trapezoidal form to flat bench banks, similar to benches found in natural stream channels. All data were statistically analyzed with respect to drainage area using regression, because channel form is directly related to drainage area for a given climate, geology and land use. Results show similar regression slope and intercept for bankfull channel width and bankfull cross-sectional area (CSA) of older ditches and natural streams compared to typical trapezoidal designed ditches. Evolved ditches developed a small floodplain bench above the ditch bed and adjusted their bankfull widths similar to natural stream channels with respect to drainage area. Old ditches showed a relatively strong R ² (0.82, 0.68) for channel CSA and width, a weaker R ² (0.45) for water surface slope, and little to no correlation with bed particle size. Channel form appears to have adjusted more quickly than bed facets and/or bed particle size distribution. However, stepwise regression determined that D₈₄, width/depth ratio and mean bankfull depth explained 83?% of the variability of channel features across varying drainage areas. Findings suggest a possible reduction of long-term maintenance costs if older ditches are allowed to evolve over time. A stable ditch form similar to natural streams is typically self-sustaining, suggesting that prior to a scheduled clean-out, the ditch should be examined for hydraulic capacity, sediment transport and bank stability.     

The origin and persistence of alpine vernal ponds in mineral soils

Little is known of the processes that create and maintain vernal ponds in mineral soils in alpine environments. On the Central Plateau, Tasmania, we tested the hypotheses that vernal pond complexes on mineral soils formed in response to the underlying topography of a glacio-fluvial plain; relate to present day topography; resulted from past damming by organic accumulation; are moulded by wind. The underlying topography did not relate to the surface ponds, nor were they on steeper slopes than adjacent areas without ponds. The morphology of the ponds and the morphological and edaphic characteristics of the pond complexes and adjacent areas are consistent with an origin by organic material damming. The strongest winds orientate most ponds, rather than the aspect of the slope. Sediments were preferentially caught on sticky traps to the northeast of the ponds, away from fierce prevailing southwesterly winds. Temperature measurements and fortnightly observation showed non-concordant patterns of variation in water levels in the ponds. We deduce that the complexes of vernal ponds may have formed in previous moister conditions more favourable to organic matter accumulation, possibly in the early Holocene, and are maintained by a faster rate of accumulation of mineral and organic particles in the tussock grassland adjacent to the ponds than in the ponds themselves. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.