Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

Coastal pollution hazards in southern California observed by SAR imagery: stormwater plumes, wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps

Stormwater runoff plumes, municipal wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps are important pollution hazards for the heavily populated Southern California Bight (SCB). Due to their small size, dynamic and episodic nature, these hazards are difficult to sample adequately using traditional in situ oceanographic methods. Complex coastal circulation and persistent cloud cover can further complicate detection and monitoring of these hazards. We use imagery from space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), complemented by field measurements, to examine these hazards in the SCB. The hazards are detectable in SAR imagery because they deposit surfactants on the sea surface, smoothing capillary and small gravity waves to produce areas of reduced backscatter compared with the surrounding ocean. We suggest that high-resolution SAR, which obtains useful data regardless of darkness or cloud cover, could be an important observational tool for assessment and monitoring of coastal marine pollution hazards in the SCB and other urbanized coastal regions.     

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.     

Continental shelf nurseries and recruitment variability in American plaice and yellowtail flounder on the Grand Bank: insights into stock resiliency

In 1994, a directed fishing moratorium was declared for Grand Bank American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) stocks because both stocks showed severe declines in abundance from heavy exploitation during the mid 1980s and early 1990s. Four years later, the fishery for yellowtail re-opened while the plaice stock has shown little recovery and the moratorium is still in effect. To assess the possible causes of the differences in recovery between species, we examined the spatial structure and environmental characteristics of the continental shelf nursery habitats of plaice and yellowtail, and their relationship to recruitment variability and overall population size. Depth plays a major influential role determining the spatial pattern and the abundance of juveniles of both species and in the case of plaice the spatial structure of the adult population also determines the amount of nursery area utilised by juveniles. Recruitment variability was higher in plaice than in yellowtail. We found year class synchrony in both species indicating that common environmental conditions and/or biological processes are affecting recruitment in a similar manner. Density-dependent regulation appears to be more severe in yellowtail and this should contribute to a more stable population when compared to plaice. These results are discussed in terms of resiliency of both stocks to over-exploitation.     

Molecular line mapping of the giant molecular cloud associated with RCW 106 – II. Column density and dynamical state of the clumps

We present a fully sampled C¹⁸O (1–0) map towards the southern giant molecular cloud (GMC) associated with the H  ii region RCW 106, and use it in combination with previous ¹³CO (1–0) mapping to estimate the gas column density as a function of position and velocity. We find localized regions of significant ¹³CO optical depth in the northern part of the cloud, with several of the high-opacity clouds in this region likely associated with a limb-brightened shell around the H  ii region G333.6−0.2. Optical depth corrections broaden the distribution of column densities in the cloud, yielding a lognormal distribution as predicted by simulations of turbulence. Decomposing the ¹³CO and C¹⁸O data cubes into clumps, we find relatively weak correlations between size and linewidth, and a more sensitive dependence of luminosity on size than would be predicted by a constant average column density. The clump mass spectrum has a slope near −1.7, consistent with previous studies. The most massive clumps appear to have gravitational binding energies well in excess of virial equilibrium; we discuss possible explanations, which include magnetic support and neglect of time-varying surface terms in the virial theorem. Unlike molecular clouds as a whole, the clumps within the RCW 106 GMC, while elongated, appear to show random orientations with respect to the Galactic plane.     

The variation and controls of mean transit times in Australian headwater catchments

Determining mean transit times in headwater catchments is critical for understanding catchment functioning and understanding their responses to changes in landuse or climate. Determining whether mean transit times (MTTs) correlate with drainage density, slope angle, area, or land cover permits a better understanding of the controls on water flow through catchments and allows first-order predictions of MTTs in other catchments to be made. This study assesses whether there are identifiable controls on MTTs determined using ³H in headwater catchments of southeast Australia. Despite MTTs at baseflow varying from a few years to >100 years, it was difficult to predict MTTs using single or groups of readily-measured catchment attributes. The lack of readily-identifiable correlations hampers the prediction of MTTs in adjacent catchments even where these have similar geology, land use, and topography. The long MTTs of the Australian headwater catchments are probably in part due to the catchments having high storage volumes in deeply-weathered regolith, combined with low recharge rates due to high evapotranspiration. However, the difficulty in estimating storage volumes at the catchment scale hampers the use of this parameter to estimate MTTs. The runoff coefficient (the fraction of rainfall exported via the stream) is probably also controlled by evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Correlations between the runoff coefficient and MTTs in individual catchments allow predictions of MTTs in nearby catchments to be made. MTTs are shorter in high rainfall periods as the catchments wet up and shallow water stores are mobilized. Despite the contribution of younger water, the major ion geochemistry in individual catchments commonly does not correlate with MTTs, probably reflecting heterogeneous reactions and varying degrees of evapotranspiration. Documenting MTTs in catchments with high storage volumes and/or low recharge rates elsewhere is important for understanding MTTs in diverse environments.     

Groundwater age,mixing and flow rates in the vicinity of large open pit mines,Pilbara region,northwestern Australia

Determining groundwater ages from environmental tracer concentrations measured on samples obtained from open bores or long-screened intervals is fraught with difficulty because the sampled water represents a variety of ages. A multi-tracer technique (Cl, ¹⁴C, ³H, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and SF₆) was used to decipher the groundwater ages sampled from long-screened production bores in a regional aquifer around an open pit mine in the Pilbara region of northwest Australia. The changes in tracer concentrations due to continuous dewatering over 7 years (2008–2014) were examined, and the tracer methods were compared. Tracer concentrations suggest that groundwater samples are a mixture of young and old water; the former is inferred to represent localised recharge from an adjacent creek, and the latter to be diffuse recharge. An increase in ¹⁴C activity with time in wells closest to the creek suggests that dewatering of the open pit to achieve dry mining conditions has resulted in change in flow direction, so that localised recharge from the creek now forms a larger proportion of the pumped groundwater. The recharge rate prior to development, calculated from a steady-state Cl mass balance, is 6 mm/y, and is consistent with calculations based on the ¹⁴C activity. Changes in CFC-12 concentrations with time may be related to the change in water-table position relative to the depth of the well screen.