Stern’s Review and Adam’s fallacy

The Stern Review has played an enormous role in making the world of business aware of the challenge of long-term climate change. In order to make real progress on the basis of this awareness, it is important to pay attention to the difference between human suffering and losses of gross domestic product (GDP). The Review has compared climate change to experiences of suffering like World War I. That war, however, hardly affected global GDP. The long-term damages to be expected from business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions include loss of the coastal cities of the world over the next millennia. This would be an act of unprecedented barbarism, regardless of whether it would slow down economic growth or perhaps even accelerate it. Business leaders worried about climate change need to pay attention to the tensions between ethical and economic concerns. Otherwise, a credibility crisis threatens global climate policy. An important step to establish the credibility needed for effective climate policy will be to gradually move towards a regime where emission permits are auctioned, not handed out as hidden subsidies. The revenues generated by permit auctions should be used to establish a global system of regional climate funds.     

Die Bedeutung der vertikalen Durchmischung für die phytoplanktische Sauerstoffproduktion in einem gestauten Fliessgewässer

Measured oxygen concentrations over the depth in an impounded river showed considerable vertical gradients. Their numerical calculation based on concepts to be found in the literature was yet not possible. For assessing the signification of the mixing over the depth for the phytoplanktic oxygen production a mathematical concept will be developped. This enables the quantification of the influence of the turbulence dependent permanent light-dark changes upon the phytoplanktic production. The results lead to the conclusion that the mixing processes may have a stimulating effect upon the algae which rises their photosynthetic production by a factor from about 2 up to 4.     

Effect of Surface Morphology on the Dissipation During Shear and Slip Along a Rock–Rock Interface that Contains a Visco-elastic Core

High resolution topography measurements of the Vuache–Sillingy fault (Alps, France) reveal a characteristic roughness of the fault zone. We investigate the effect of roughness on the rheology of a planar shear configuration by using a model system consisting of a visco-elastic layer embedded into a rigid solid. The model is discussed in the context of several geological cases: a damage fault zone, a fault smeared with a clay layer, and a shear zone with strain weakening. Using both analytical approaches and finite element simulations, we calculate to linear order the relation between wall roughness and the viscous dissipation in the fault zone as well as the average shear rate.     

On the recording characteristics of the original Wiechert seismographs at Göttingen (Germany)

The mechanical, automatically recording seismological instruments developed by Emil Wiechert in Göttingen at the beginning of the 20th century are still in use today. I comparethe recording characteristics of these seismographswith a modern, electrodynamic MARK L4-3D instrument. The frequency-dependent transfer functions are determined and used to restitute the`true' ground displacement. The displacement waveforms at the different instruments are well correlated at frequencies between 0.05 and 4.0 Hz.Amplitudes differ by a factor of less than two. This is sufficientfor the determination of seismological magnitudes which are defined on a logarithmicbasis. The timing accuracy is less favourable due to theslow recording speed on the smoked paper. However, relativetime differences within one second may be resolved, allowing the use of variousmodern seismological interpretation techniques.     

Tube wave modeling by the finite-difference method with varying grid spacing

A finite-difference approach of aP-SV modeling scheme is applied to compute seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous isotropic media, including fluid-filled boreholes. The discrete formulation of the equation of motion requires the definition of the material parameters at the grid points of the numerical mesh. The grid spacing is chosen as coarse as possible with respect to the accurate representation of the shortest wavelength. If we assume frequencies lower than 250 Hz then the grid spacing is usually chosen in the range of a few meters. One encounters difficulties because of the large-scale difference between the grid spacing and the size of the borehole, usually several centimeters.These difficulties can be overcome by a grid refinement technique. This technique provides the construction of grids with varying grid spacing. The grid spacing in the vicinity of the borehole is chosen such that the borehole is properly represented. An example demonstrates the accuracy of this technique by comparisons with other methods. Unlike many analytical methods, the FD method can handle complex subsurface geometries. Further numerical examples of walk-awayVSP configurations show tube wave propagation within fluid-filled boreholes of realistic diameters.     

Simulating the Taipei basin response by numerical modeling of wave propagation

Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, suffered from destructive earthquakes four times during the 20th century (M _L = 7.3 on April 15, 1909; M _L = 6.8 on November 15, 1986; the Chi–Chi M _L = 7.3 earthquake on September 21, 1999; and M _L = 6.8 on March 31, 2002). Analysis of recorded data shows a strong dependence of spectral amplification in the Taipei Basin on earthquake depth and azimuth. At low frequencies (f < 3 Hz) significant larger amplifications are observed for shallow earthquakes as compared to intermediate depth events. The former ones also display strong azimuthal dependence. As structures with large response periods such as bridges and tall buildings are sensitive to these low frequencies the understanding of the associated wave effects within the basin and their role for site effect amplification is critical. The tool we employ is 3D finite-difference modeling of wave propagation of incident wave fronts. The available detailed model of the basin allows studying the wave effects. Modeling clearly reveals that basin edge effects as observed in data are related to surface wave generation at the basin edges with a high degree of azimuthal dependency. The reproduced site amplification effects are in qualitative agreement with the observations from strong motion data.     

Creep stress analysis of frozen soils under multiaxial states of stress

Creep behaviour of the so called Emscher-Marl is investigated in uniaxial compression tests under a temperature of −10°C. Similar to the results of creep tests published elsewhere, it is shown that the secondary creep controls the deformation. In cases of stationary creep the material behaves like a nonlinear elasto-viscous Maxwell fluid. Assuming no hydrostatic pressure effect, the power law applied to the uniaxial case can be transformed to multiaxial states of stress. For structures of frozen soil with a long-term deformation process Norton's power relationship between stress and rate of steady flow leads to reasonable results. As a numerical solution a finite-element computer program in connection with incremental procedure is developed for treatment of creep problems in groundfreezing technology. The calculation of a simply supported beam demonstrates the important influence of the high nonlinearity in stress and strain for frozen soils.     

Drought and famine in Ethiopia and Sudan: An ongoing tragedy

Published with permission from Drought Network News, Vol. 2(3), 1990.     

An anticlockwise P–T–t path at high‐pressure,high‐temperature conditions for a migmatitic gneiss from the island of Fjørtoft,Western Gneiss Region,Norway, indicates two burial events during the Caledonian orogeny

The Blåhø Nappe on the island of Fjørtoft, which represents an isolated portion of the Seve Nappe Complex in the Western Gneiss Region, Norway, has been suggested to have experienced two deep burial cycles during the Caledonian orogeny. However, evidence on this multiple burial process by the derivation of a pressure–temperature–time (P–T–t) path has never been given in the literature. In this study, the ‘diamondiferous’ kyanite–garnet gneiss from the Blåhø Nappe on Fjørtoft was revisited to determine if such a process was correct. Two types of garnet, porphyroblastic garnet‐1 and fine‐grained garnet‐2, were recognized in the gneiss. The core of garnet‐1 is poor in Ca and documents P–T conditions of 1.2–1.3 GPa at c. 880°C based on pseudosection modelling. The inner rims of garnet‐1 and the core of garnet‐2 are both richer in Ca, recording P–T conditions of 1.35–1.45 GPa and 770–820°C. Application of conventional geothermobarometry on the outer rim of garnet‐1 and the rim of garnet‐2 yielded retrograde P–T conditions of 0.75–0.90 GPa and 610–685°C. These estimates define an anticlockwise P–T path at pressures below 1.5 GPa. Accessory monazite was dated with the electron microscope. Relicts of detrital monazite in the gneiss point to Sveconorwegian and possibly also Cryogenian provenance for the detritus of the sedimentary protolith. Metamorphic monazite in the gneiss records a wide age range from 460 to 380 Ma, with a peak c. 435 Ma and a shoulder at 395 Ma. These data suggest that the original (Ediacaran?) Baltica margin sediment (gneiss protolith) was transported to the base of an overlying plate during the early Caledonian (pre‐Scandian) orogeny. A long residence time of the metasedimentary rock at this base caused its heating to 880°C and homogenization of the early garnet chemistry. The late Caledonian (Scandian) collision between Baltica and Laurentia led to further burial, during which the studied gneiss was close to the former surface of the downgoing continental plate and, thus, cooled. The reconstructed P–T–t path confirms the multiple burial history of the Blåhø Nappe but contradicts previous ideas of deep burial of the Fjørtoft gneiss to more than 100 km.