Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.     

A quantitative investigation into the temporal and spatial variations in the emergence of adult blackflies (Diptera: Simuliidae) from the Breitenbach, a small upland stream in Germany

As a contribution to the long-term emergence studies carried out as part of the “Breitenbach ecosystem project”, this paper presents the results obtained on emergence patterns and population dynamics of blackflies from 1984 to 1988. The Breitenbach is a small first order stream near Schlitz/Hesse, running into the Fulda river. Adult blackflies were caught in 4 greenhouse emergence traps, each spanning the whole width of the stream for a length of 6 m. A manual and then a partly automated method for collecting trapped insects was applied for three years and one year, respectively. Sixteen blackfly-species of different origin were found in the traps: a) autochthonous species: Prosimulium tomosvaryi, Simulium vernum s.l., S. cryophilum s.l., S. ornatum s.l. (common); S. costatum, S. trifasciatum, S. monticola, S. argyreatum (rare); b) species of doubtful origin: S. lundstromi, S. angustitarse, S. angustipes, S. aureum (very rare); c) allochthonous species: S. lineatum, S. equinum, S. erythrocephalum, S. noelleri. It was shown that the last 4 species had not emerged from the Breitenbach but had flown into the traps as adults. In addition, females of autochthonous species with blood or with mature eggs were trapped, which were also considered to have flown in. Besides revealing a limitation of the trap construction, they supported the detailed interpretation of some intricated patterns of appearance. Variations in emergence patterns and specimen numbers between years and traps were pronounced, but only in a few cases could they be attributed to changes in abiotic factors such as water temperature or discharge. P. tomosvaryi had the most simple and regular life cycle, with one well synchronised emergence peak annually from April to May (or even to June). No gradient of specimen numbers along the stream was evident. The two closely related species S. vernum and S. cryophilum had quite similar emergence patterns: There were two broad peaks per year, extending mainly from March to June and from July to October or November. In some cases the number and separation of consecutive generations was not clear. The abundance of both species clearly decreased downstream, more so for S. cryophilum than for S. vernum. In a trap closest to a tributary spring, S. cryophilum was the dominant species during three of the four years examined. The adults of S. ornatum displayed an intricate pattern of appearance, with very low specimen numbers in spring and medium to very high numbers in July/August and September/October. S. ornatum is the only blackfly species that inhabits both the Breitenbach and the adjacent section of the Fulda river. It was shown that females emerging from the Fulda river regularly invade the Breitenbach valley in greatly varying numbers and oviposit there. This leads to overlapping larval cohorts with corresponding emergence peaks. Although S. ornatum was the most abundant species in one year in the lower traps (60 to 80% of all individuals), it remains uncertain whether it is a long-term, permanent member of the autochthonous blackfly fauna of the Breitenbach. Estimates of total numbers of flown-in adults, actual emergence, dry weight biomass, the ecological separation of the species and their life cycle strategies are discussed.     

North-south transfer zones and paleo-morphological reconstruction of the Xylokastro area (Corinth Gulf, Greece)

A large number of studies have documented the structural and sedimentary architecture of the Corinth Gulf, especially the major E–W trending normal faults important in accommodating the main extensional strain and associated growth of the Gilbert fan deltas. However, the role of several N–S oriented structures that crop out at the surface and are detectable at depth by seismic reflection and gravity surveys are not clearly understood. Based on new geological data, collected near Xylokastro, we describe the N–S oriented tectonic activity of this area. The mapped inland faults correspond to off-shore structures identified in re-interpreted seismic lines and appear to have acted as a major transfer zone during the opening of the Corinth Gulf. Reconstruction of the paleo-topography based on sedimentary facies and the environment of clay mineral formation suggest these transfer zones played an important role in controlling both local structural relief and depositional conditions of the Gilbert fan deltas.     

Deflation during caldera unrest: constraints on subsurface processes and hazard prediction from gravity–height data

We have evaluated published gravity-height ((g/(h) data on Campi Flegrei, Kilauea, Askja and Krafla, in order to discriminate between subsurface processes during caldera subsidence. With respect to end member gravity-height correlations, such as the free air gradient (FAG) and the Bouguer corrected free air (BCFAG), (g/(h gradients must be interpreted in terms of subsurface mass redistribution, density changes or some combination of these. (g/(h gradients during subsidence plot (1) along or below the BCFAG, (2) between the BCFAG and the FAG or (3) along or above the FAG. We have evaluated each of these three regions in terms of subsurface processes during volcano subsidence. We have interpreted (g/(h gradients as possible indicators of precursors of volcanic activity and propose that gravity-height surveys may help to detect precursors of caldera collapse caused by magma drainage. In this context, the 1875 eruption of Askja in Iceland has been re-interpreted in terms of the beginning of the eruptive episode being induced by roof collapse of an evacuating magma chamber. Based on other examples of recent volcanic roof collapses, we evaluate the contribution of gravity-height surveys in assessing volcanic risks during caldera subsidence. Caldera-forming eruptions are environmentally and economically the most devastating volcanic events. Inflation is usually considered to be an important precursor to activity. Here, we show that deflation may be associated with the trigger mechanism for caldera-forming explosive eruptions.