Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century

Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L _max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L _max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Longshore drift estimation using fluorescent tracers: New insights from an experiment at Comporta Beach, Portugal

A fluorescent sand-tracer experiment was performed at Comporta Beach (Portugal) with the aim of acquiring longshore sediment transport data on a reflective beach, the optimization of field and laboratory tracer procedures and the improvement of the conceptual model used to support tracer data interpretation.

The field experiment was performed on a mesotidal reflective beach face in low energetic conditions (significant wave height between 0.4 and 0.5 m). Two different colour tracers (orange and blue) were injected at low tide and sampled in the two subsequent low tides using a high resolution 3D grid extending 450 m alongshore and 30 m cross-shore. Marked sand was detected using an automatic digital image processing system developed in the scope of the present experiment.

Results for the two colour tracers show a remarkable coherence, with high recovery rates attesting data validity. Sand tracer displayed a high advection velocity, but with distinct vertical distribution patterns in the two tides: in the first tide there was a clear decrease in tracer advection velocity with depth while in the second tide, the tracer exhibited an almost uniform vertical velocity distribution. This differing behaviour suggests that, in the first tide, the tracer had not reached equilibrium within the transport system, pointing to a considerable time lag between injection and complete mixing. This issue has important implications for the interpretation of tracer data, indicating that short term tracer experiments tend to overestimate transport rates. In this work, therefore, longshore estimates were based on tracer results obtained during the second tide.

The estimated total longshore transport rate at Comporta Beach was 2 × 10^− 3 m³/s, more than four times larger than predicted using standard empirical longshore formulas. This discrepancy, which results from the unusually large active moving layer observed during the experiment, confirms the idea that most common longshore transport equations under-estimate total sediment transport in plunging/surging waves.     

Overview of integrative tools and methods in assessing ecological integrity in estuarine and coastal systems worldwide

In recent years, several sets of legislation worldwide (Oceans Act in USA, Australia or Canada; Water Framework Directive or Marine Strategy in Europe, National Water Act in South Africa, etc.) have been developed in order to address ecological quality or integrity, within estuarine and coastal systems. Most such legislation seeks to define quality in an integrative way, by using several biological elements, together with physico-chemical and pollution elements. Such an approach allows assessment of ecological status at the ecosystem level ('ecosystem approach' or 'holistic approach' methodologies), rather than at species level (e.g. mussel biomonitoring or Mussel Watch) or just at chemical level (i.e. quality objectives) alone. Increasing attention has been paid to the development of tools for different physico-chemical or biological (phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, algae, phanerogams, fishes) elements of the ecosystems. However, few methodologies integrate all the elements into a single evaluation of a water body. The need for such integrative tools to assess ecosystem quality is very important, both from a scientific and stakeholder point of view. Politicians and managers need information from simple and pragmatic, but scientifically sound methodologies, in order to show to society the evolution of a zone (estuary, coastal area, etc.), taking into account human pressures or recovery processes. These approaches include: (i) multidisciplinarity, inherent in the teams involved in their implementation; (ii) integration of biotic and abiotic factors; (iii) accurate and validated methods in determining ecological integrity; and (iv) adequate indicators to follow the evolution of the monitored ecosystems. While some countries increasingly use the establishment of marine parks to conserve marine biodiversity and ecological integrity, there is awareness (e.g. in Australia) that conservation and management of marine ecosystems cannot be restricted to Marine Protected Areas but must include areas outside such reserves. This contribution reviews the current situation of integrative ecological assessment worldwide, by presenting several examples from each of the continents: Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and North America.     

Impacts of macroalgal spores on the dynamics of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary: high versus low hydrodynamic seasons and long-term simulations for global warming scenarios

A model describing macroalgal early life stages and adult dynamics was used to quantify the effects of non-adult forms on the productivity of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary. Predictions indicate that during years with mild winters and low rainfall, spring blooms will occur at the expense of the growth and reproduction of overwintering adults and without the contribution of the spore bank. In these circumstances, there is a positive correlation between the intensity of the blooms and the biomass of overwintering adults until a maximum threshold value. On the contrary, in years with high rainfall and low or inexistent biomass of overwintering adults, the onset of adult’s growth depends on the biomass of viable dormant spores, the growing season occurs later and adult productivity is very limited. Long-term predictions for climate change scenarios suggest that, in general, global warming will have adverse affects on Ulva intestinalis productivity, with the adults being more affected than the early life stages.     

Multi-stage evolution of a sub-aerial volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr: S. Jorge Island, Azores Triple Junction

New K/Ar dating and geochemical analyses have been carried out on the WNW–ESE elongated oceanic island of S. Jorge to reconstruct the volcanic evolution of a linear ridge developed close to the Azores triple junction. We show that S. Jorge sub-aerial construction encompasses the last 1.3 Myr, a time interval far much longer than previously reported. The early development of the ridge involved a sub-aerial building phase exposed in the southeast end of the island and now constrained between 1.32 ± 0.02 and 1.21 ± 0.02 Ma. Basic lavas from this older stage are alkaline and enriched in incompatible elements, reflecting partial melting of an enriched mantle source. At least three differentiation cycles from alkaline basalts to mugearites are documented within this stage. The successive episodes of magma rising, storage and evolution suggest an intermittent re-opening of the magma feeding system, possibly due to recurrent tensional or trans-tensional tectonic events. Present data show a gap in sub-aerial volcanism before a second main ongoing building phase starting at about 750 ka. Sub-aerial construction of the S. Jorge ridge migrated progressively towards the west, but involved several overlapping volcanic episodes constrained along the main WNW–ESE structural axis of the island. Mafic magmas erupted during the second phase have been also generated by partial melting of an enriched mantle source. Trace element data suggest, however, variable and lower degrees of partial melting of a shallower mantle domain, which is interpreted as an increasing control of lithospheric deformation on the genesis and extraction of primitive melts during the last 750 kyr. The multi-stage development of the S. Jorge volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr has most likely been greatly influenced by regional tectonics, controlled by deformation along the diffuse boundary between the Nubian and the Eurasian plates, and the increasing effect of sea-floor spreading at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.     

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Morphology and dynamics of the intertidal floodplain along the Amazon tidal river

Depositional environments along the tidal river downstream of Óbidos have been proposed as important sinks for up to one third of the sediment discharge from the Amazon River. However, the morphology of the intertidal floodplain and the dynamics of sediment exchange along this reach have yet to be described. River-bank surveys in five regions along the Amazon tidal river reveal a distinct transition in bank morphology between the upper, central and lower reaches of the tidal river. The upper tidal-river floodplain is defined by prominent natural levees that control the transfer of water and sediment between the mainstem Amazon River and its floodplain. Greater tidal influence in the central tidal river suppresses levee development, and tidal currents increase sediment transport into the distal parts of the floodplain. In the lower tidal river, the floodplain morphology closely resembles marine intertidal environments (e.g. mud flats, salt marshes), with dendritic tidal channels incising elevated vegetated flats. Theory, morphology and geochronology suggest that the dynamics of sediment delivery to the intertidal floodplain of the Amazon tidal river vary along its length due to the relative influence and coupling of fluvial and tidal dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is the soil moisture precipitation feedback enhanced by heterogeneity and dry soils? A comparative study

The interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere is a crucial driver of atmospheric processes. Soil moisture and precipitation are key components in this feedback. Both variables are intertwined in a cycle, that is, the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for which involved processes and interactions are still discussed. In this study the soil moisture – precipitation feedback is compared for the sempiternal humid Ammer catchment in Southern Germany and for the semiarid to subhumid Sissili catchment in West Africa during the warm season, using precipitation datasets from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), from the German Weather Service (REGNIE) and simulation datasets from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the hydrologically enhanced WRF-Hydro model. WRF and WRF-Hydro differ by their representation of terrestrial water flow. With this setup we want to investigate the strength, sign and variables involved in the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for these two regions. The normalized model spread between the two simulation results shows linkages between precipitation variability and diagnostic variables surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence above the surface and convective available potential energy in both study regions. The soil moisture – precipitation feedback is evaluated with a classification of soil moisture spatial heterogeneity based on the strength of the soil moisture gradients. This allows us to assess the impact of soil moisture anomalies on surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence, convective available potential energy and precipitation. In both regions the amount of precipitation generally increases with soil moisture spatial heterogeneity. For the Ammer region the soil moisture – precipitation feedback has a weak negative sign with more rain near drier patches while it has a positive signal for the Sissili region with more rain over wetter patches. At least for the observed moderate soil moisture values and the spatial scale of the Ammer region, the spatial variability of soil moisture is more important for surface-atmosphere interactions than the actual soil moisture content. Overall, we found that soil moisture heterogeneity can greatly affect the soil moisture – precipitation feedback.