Satellite- and radar-based investigations of heavy precipitation systems on the southern side of the European Alps

Summary In autumn 1999 during the field phase of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP), the geostationary satellite Meteosat-6 performed 5-minute rapid scan imagery over central Europe. The rapid scan data of 11 heavy precipitation events are investigated by analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of cloud top structures. The objectives are to separate convective from stratiform cloud regions by satellite data alone and to gain insight into the life cycle of heavy precipitation systems. For verification of the satellite-based results, radar data from the operational Mt. Lema C-band radar is interpolated on the spatial grid of the infrared and visible Meteosat images. The interpolated radar data of each single grid cell is then classified by a convective-stratiform algorithm and compared to the analysed rapid scan imagery.The satellite- and radar-based approaches do only rarely produce matching classifications concerning the identification of convective areas. Since convection during the field phase of MAP occurred mostly embedded within stratiform cloud regions, no temporal and spatial characteristics of convective activity within clouds can be systematically derived from satellite imagery. This lack of characteristic cloud top structures prevented the unambiguous identification of typical cloudiness associated with stratiform precipitation. It is one of the major findings of this study, that in several cases being classified as stratiform by radar, strong cloud development is observed in satellite imagery. The preferred area of strong cloud development is located ahead of the Alpine barrier in a precipitation-free atmosphere. Two contrasting examples of life cycles of heavy precipitation systems are given based on the complementary information extracted from satellite and radar data.     

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications.     

New Semi-Automated Photometric Telescope at the Skalnate Pleso Observatory

A semi-automated photometric telescope built at the Skalnate Pleso Observatory is described. In December 2000, the 0.3-m f/5 Zeiss astrograph was replaced by a 0.61-m f/4.3 mirror telescope equipped with a CCD camera. The observing programme is created to conform to the photometry of asteroids which are suspected to be of binary nature; photometry of NEAs and MBAs; a long-term photometry for theoretical modelling of the shape of asteroids; and photometry and astrometry of active comets and asteroids. Some results concerning the binary character of the asteroids are described in the paper.     

Alpine climate during the Holocene: a comparison between records of glaciers,lake sediments and solar activity

The European Alps are very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Recent improvements in Alpine glacier length records and climate reconstructions from annually laminated sediments of Alpine Lake Silvaplana give the opportunity to investigate the relationship between these two data sets of Alpine climate. Two different time frames are considered: the last 500–1000 years as well as the last 7400 years. First, we found good agreement between the two different climate archives during the past millennium: mass accumulation rates and biogenic silica concentration are largely in phase with the glacier length changes of Mer de Glace and Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher, and with the records of glacier length of Grosser Aletschgletscher and Gornergletscher. Secondly, the records are compared with temporally highly resolved data of solar activity. The Sun has had a major impact on the Alpine climate variations in the long term, i.e. several centuries to millennia. Solar activity varies with the Hallstatt periodicity of about 2000 years. Hallstatt minima are identified around 500, 2500 and 5000 a. Around these times grand solar minima (such as the Maunder Minimum) occurred in clusters coinciding with colder Alpine climate expressed by glacier advances. During the Hallstatt maxima around 0, 2000 and 4500 a, the Alpine glaciers generally retreated, indicating a warmer climate. This is supported by archaeological findings at Schnidejoch, a transalpine pass in Switzerland that was only accessible when glaciers had retreated. On shorter timescales, however, the influence of the Sun cannot be as easily detected in Alpine climate change, indicating that in addition to solar forcing, volcanic influence and internal climate variations have played an important role. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901?C1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales.     

Geologie von Westtimor

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Spatially distributed observations in constraining inundation modelling uncertainties

The performance of two modelling approaches for predicting floodplain inundation is tested using observed flood extent and 26 distributed floodplain level observations for the 1997 flood event in the town of Usti nad Orlici in the Czech Republic. Although the one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model and the integrated one‐ and two‐dimensional model are shown to perform comparably against the flood extent data, the latter shows better performance against the distributed level observations. Comparable performance in predicting the extent of inundation is found to be primarily as a result of the urban reach considered, with flood extent constrained by road and railway embankments. Uncertainty in the elevation model used in both approaches is shown to have little effect on the reliability in predicting flood extent, with a greater impact on the ability in predicting the distributed level observations. These results show that reliability of flood inundation modelling in urban reaches, where flood risk assessment is of more interest than in more rural reaches, can be improved greatly if distributed observations of levels in the floodplain are used in constraining model uncertainties. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.