Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.     

Sensitivity of European glaciers to precipitation and temperature – two case studies

A nonlinear backpropagation network (BPN) has been trained with high-resolution multiproxy reconstructions of temperature and precipitation (input data) and glacier length variations of the Alpine Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland (output data). The model was then forced with two regional climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation derived from a probabilistic approach: The first scenario (“no change”) assumes no changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2000–2050 period compared to the 1970–2000 mean. In the second scenario (“combined forcing”) linear warming rates of 0.036–0.054°C per year and changing precipitation rates between −17% and +8% compared to the 1970–2000 mean have been used for the 2000–2050 period. In the first case the Lower Grindelwald Glacier shows a continuous retreat until the 2020s when it reaches an equilibrium followed by a minor advance. For the second scenario a strong and continuous retreat of approximately −30 m/year since the 1990s has been modelled. By processing the used climate parameters with a sensitivity analysis based on neural networks we investigate the relative importance of different climate configurations for the Lower Grindelwald Glacier during four well-documented historical advance (1590–1610, 1690–1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1820) and retreat periods (1640–1665, 1780–1810, 1860–1880, 1945–1970). It is shown that different combinations of seasonal temperature and precipitation have led to glacier variations. In a similar manner, we establish the significance of precipitation and temperature for the well-known early eighteenth century advance and the twentieth century retreat of Nigardsbreen, a glacier in western Norway. We show that the maritime Nigardsbreen Glacier is more influenced by winter and/or spring precipitation than the Lower Grindelwald Glacier.     

Thermomechanical behavior of Pravcicka Brana Rock Arch (Czech Republic)

The paper discusses the results of research devoted to the preservation of a natural heritage site carried out at Pravcicka Brana Rock Arch, the largest natural sandstone bridge in Europe, located in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park, Czech Republic. One of the objectives of the study was to explore natural diurnal and annual temperature oscillations at the shallowest part of the rock mass and to acquire an insight into the heat balance both at the surface and within the rock mass. In 2009, four thermocouples were embedded at two positions (eastern and western sides) in a longitudinal direction sequence: rock surface and three different depths 0.10, 0.40, and 0.90 m. Calculation of heat flux inside the rock mass was treated with Fourier’s series which analyzes periodic temperature variation into a set of harmonics of the dominant diurnal or annual waves. Based on the results of Fourier’s analysis, fundamental thermophysical parameters were determined. These were used as the input data to establish a numerical model of temperature distribution in the near surface depth and thermomechanical (kinematic) behavior of the rock arch. Apart from in situ temperature monitoring data, the displacement time series data for the period 1993–2012 recorded by portable crack gauges in 1-month intervals were available. Finally, the rate of displacements in the model simulations was analyzed and compared with those recorded by on site displacement monitoring. Model simulations detected the existence of thermally driven deformation comprising both quasi-cyclic (reversible) movements and irreversible (plastic) deformations which in fact affirm the idea that temperature oscillations are the most contributing factor to the total displacement rate observed at the Pravcicka Brana Rock Arch. Based on the results of model simulation, the authors address the key issue whether the actual deformation mechanism and dynamics will have any influence on the stability of the Pravcicka Brana Rock Arch.     

MELIMEX,an experimental heavy metal pollution study: Regulation of trace metal concentrations in limno-corrals

In three limno-corrals of the MELIMEX project the transport paths of the trace metals Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb and the reaction of the systems on increased metal loads were investigated. The metal balances lead to the conclusion that the biomass is the main factor responsible for the regulation of trace metal concentration. The observed sequence of relative residence times of the trace metals can be described with a steady-state model. Additional metal load decreases the ability of the limnic system to lower the metal concentration. The production of phytoplankton and its assimilation capacity for metals are reduced leading to relatively higher metal concentrations in the lake.     

Pre-variscan,Variscan and Early Alpine thermo-tectonic history of the north-eastern Bohemian Massif: An 40Ar/39Ar study

The Orlica-Snieznik and Jeseník Mountains correspond to three main domes from west to east: the Snieznik, Keprnfk and Desna domes. They are composed of a basement of autochthonous gneisses, a thick series of blastomylonites and a supposed para-autochthonous or allochthonous metamorphic pre-Devonian to Devonian cover. Their broad direction is NNE-SSW. ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar radiometric measurements allow three main groups of ages to be defined. (1) 300–310 Ma, represented in the Keprník and Desná domes. This age is interpretated following the constraints on the age of the metamorphism, which is linked with the extensional process occurring during the Westphalian. (2) 320–340 Ma, represented mainly in the Snieznik Dome, but not in the Keprnfk Massif. The nappe structure of Orlik-Vysoká hole, in the northern area of the Desna Dome, also exhibits this age, which is interpretated as reflecting the period of the major Variscan Barrowian metamorphism, which accompanied the compressional process. It is only represented in the zones where the extensional process was not strong enough to result in a complete overprinting. (3) 340–440 Ma, corresponding to a very strictly defined area in the eastern rim of the Desná Dome occupied by ultramylonites and mylonites. These ages, obtained on muscovites, result from an incomplete resetting of the minerals developed during the cooling of a granitic protolith and mylonitized during the extensional process. A laser probe analysis confirms the extreme inhomogeneity of the ages of the muscovites and their different resetting from one grain to another. The Late Alpine overprinting is more discrete, but can be deciphered through the low extraction temperatures with ages between 80 and 120 Ma. These ages can be compared with Alpine ages in the close Western Carpathians.     

Wintertime European circulation patterns during the Late Maunder Minimum cooling period (1675–1704)

Summary The North Atlantic and Western Europe regions comprise a key area to study climate variations in the form of cold relapses which may be a possible manifestation of reduced ocean circulation. By using multi-proxy data of the late Maunder Minimum period, temperature and precipitation distribution during winter was studied in connection with atmospheric circulation, with the goal of obtaining an insight into the feedbacks between ocean, sea ice and temperature. The study shows that the Late Maunder Minimum was a relatively cool and dry period with low ocean temperatures and a large sea ice extent, although Alpine glaciers did not grow during this time. A comparison of the winter weather types of the three decades from 1675 to 1704 with the recent 30 year period (1961–1990) shows that the late Maunder Minimum was characterized by strong sea level pressure reversals with high pressure centres over Northern or Northwestern Europe and large outbreaks of northeasterly cold continental air.With 3 Figures     

Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation

We present seasonal precipitation reconstructions for European land areas (30°W to 40°E/30–71°N; given on a 0.5°×0.5° resolved grid) covering the period 1500–1900 together with gridded reanalysis from 1901 to 2000 (Mitchell and Jones 2005). Principal component regression techniques were applied to develop this dataset. A large variety of long instrumental precipitation series, precipitation indices based on documentary evidence and natural proxies (tree-ring chronologies, ice cores, corals and a speleothem) that are sensitive to precipitation signals were used as predictors. Transfer functions were derived over the 1901–1983 calibration period and applied to 1500–1900 in order to reconstruct the large-scale precipitation fields over Europe. The performance (quality estimation based on unresolved variance within the calibration period) of the reconstructions varies over centuries, seasons and space. Highest reconstructive skill was found for winter over central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation variability over the last half millennium reveals both large interannual and decadal fluctuations. Applying running correlations, we found major non-stationarities in the relation between large-scale circulation and regional precipitation. For several periods during the last 500 years, we identified key atmospheric modes for southern Spain/northern Morocco and central Europe as representations of two precipitation regimes. Using scaled composite analysis, we show that precipitation extremes over central Europe and southern Spain are linked to distinct pressure patterns. Due to its high spatial and temporal resolution, this dataset allows detailed studies of regional precipitation variability for all seasons, impact studies on different time and space scales, comparisons with high-resolution climate models as well as analysis of connections with regional temperature reconstructions. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Climate Variability-Observations, Reconstructions, and Model Simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine Region from 1500-2100 AD

A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.     

A European pattern climatology 1766–2000

Using monthly independently reconstructed gridded European fields for the 500 hPa geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation covering the last 235 years we investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of these key climate variables and assess the leading combined patterns of climate variability. Seasonal European temperatures show a positive trend mainly over the last 40 years with absolute highest values since 1766. Precipitation indicates no clear trend. Spatial correlation technique reveals that winter, spring, and autumn covariability between European temperature and precipitation is mainly influenced by advective processes, whereas during summer convection plays the dominant role. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is applied to the combined fields of pressure, temperature, and precipitation. The dominant patterns of climate variability for winter, spring, and autumn resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation and show a distinct positive trend during the past 40 years for winter and spring. A positive trend is also detected for summer pattern 2, which reflects an increased influence of the Azores High towards central Europe and the Mediterranean coinciding with warm and dry conditions. The question to which extent these recent trends in European climate patterns can be explained by internal variability or are a result of radiative forcing is answered using cross wavelets on an annual basis. Natural radiative forcing (solar and volcanic) has no imprint on annual European climate patterns. Connections to CO₂ forcing are only detected at the margins of the wavelets where edge effects are apparent and hence one has to be cautious in a further interpretation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.