Community structure changes of macrobenthos in the South Yellow Sea

The ecological environment in the Yellow Sea has changed greatly from the 1950s to 1990s and this has had significant impact on marine organisms. In this study, data on soft-sediment macrobenthos occurring in depths from 25 m to 81 m in the South Yellow Sea were used to compare changes in community structure. The agglomerative classification (CLUSTER) and multidimensional scaling (MDS) methods were applied. Five communities were recognized by cluster analysis: 1. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass community dominated by cold water species, which changed slightly in species composition since the 1950s; 2. The mixed community with the coexistence of cold water species and warm water species, as had been reported previously; 3. The polychaete-dominated eurythermal community in which the composition changed considerably as some dominant species disappeared or decreased; 4. The Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuarine community, with some typical estuarine species; 5. The community affected by the Yellow Sea Warm Current. The greatest change occurred in the coastal area, which indicated that the change may be caused by human activities. Macrobenthos in the central region remained almost unchanged, particularly the cold water species shielded by the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass. The depth, temperature and median grain size of sediments were important factors affecting the distributions of macrobenthos in the South Yellow Sea.     

Thinning and shrinkage of Laohugou No. 12 glacier in the Western Qilian Mountains, China, from 1957 to 2007

Landsat images, real-time kinematic GPS measurements, and topographic maps were used to determine changes in ice elevation, volume, and areal extent of the Laohugou No. 12 glacier (Qilian Mountains, China) between 1957 and 2007. The glacier experienced significant thinning and areal shrinkage in the ablation zone, but slight thickening in part of the accumulation zone. Elevation decreased by 18.6±5.4 m between 1957 and 2007 in the regions covered by the GPS measurements. The total volume loss for the entire glacier was estimated to be 0.218 km3 using a third-order polynomial fit method. The area diminished by 0.28 km2 between 1957 and 1994, 0.26 km2 between 1994 and 2000, and 0.28 km2 between 2000 and 2007, suggesting that the rate of loss in glacial coverage has increased since the mid-1990s. Significant increases in annual mean air temperature may have contributed to shrinkage and thinning of the glacier.     

席状岩浆房中的岩浆冷却及动力稳定性

关于岩浆房中岩浆的结晶分异方式一直存在着争议,其基本矛盾在于对岩浆冷却历史及热不稳定性可能引起的对流形式的理解各不相同。本文在充分考虑席状岩浆房的基本物理特征的基础上,建立了稳定岩浆体系的动态冷却模型,并以攀枝花层状岩体为例,计算了相应的温度场、密度场及粘度场。同时,提出了一种基于能量守恒的、对热不稳定性进行分析的新方法。计算了热不稳定性可能引起的对流强度、对流区域及对流时间,并深入讨论了在一定的热不稳定状态下,不同的岩浆屈服强度对对流特征参量的影响。结果表明,在该岩体的整个固化过程中,如果曾发生过自发对流,其对流也是极微弱而短暂的,不会影响中下部岩浆房中岩浆的固化和结晶。这一结论与对该岩体的实际观察相符。     

渤海盆地现代构造应力场与强震活动

渤海位于北华北新生代裂陷盆地的东部,是一个晚第四纪形成的内陆海盆. 渤海盆地活动断裂发育,地震活动强烈,交会于渤海中部的NE向营口——潍坊断裂带北段、庙西北——黄河口——临邑断裂带及NW向北京——蓬莱断裂带是主要的活动构造带,将海区分成4个次级新构造区,成为现代应力场作用的构造基础. 综合研究38个震源机制解和75个井区应力场等资料,以及构造应力场二维数值模拟计算结果表明,渤海及其邻区现代构造应力场的压应力方向为NE60～90,张应力为SN——NW30;以水平和近水平应力作用为主;不同构造区主应力方向存在一定的差异. 现今渤海地区地壳发育以NNE——NE和NW——WNW走向的共轭剪切破裂为特征,是控制地震活动的主要构造.     

溢油乳化过程C波段微波散射特性实验研究

本文基于水槽溢油观测实验,研究溢油乳化过程中表面散射特性的变化。利用全极化C波段微波散射计和矢量网络分析仪等测量设备对易发生乳化反应沥青含量小于3%的原油（A型油）、油田中开采出的新鲜原油（B型油）和经过脱水去杂质处理的工业原油（C型油）进行观测。文中详细分析了在C波段微波下乳化油膜与平静水面的后向散射差异,以及油膜乳化过程对后向散射的影响,结果显示在低风速、无浪的条件下（最大波高低于3mm）,原油的乳化反应可通过表面粗糙度和自身介电常数的变化来调制雷达后向散射,并且这两种方式中表面粗糙度的影响占主导地位。对比B型和C型原油在乳化状态和未乳化状态下的表面后向散射,结果显示在各状态下B型油膜表面后向散射均大于C型油,且在VV、HH、HV/VH极化方式下两者后向散射平均差异分别为2.19 dB、2.63 dB、2.21 dB,在20%油膜含水率的乳化状态下差异较未乳化状态时小,平均差异分别为0.98 dB、1.49 dB、1.5 dB,结果表明不同类型油种间由于成分和油膜属性的不同会在一定程度上导致油膜表面粗糙度存在差异,影响油膜表面后向散射。     

塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘地区奥陶系一间房组岩溶储集层地震识别与控制因素*

哈拉哈塘地区位于塔里木盆地北部隆起轮南低凸起奥陶系潜山背斜西翼上,其中奥陶系一间房组碳酸盐岩岩溶储集层具有成因复杂、非均质性强和识别困难等特点。以该地区现有钻井资料、地震解释成果为基础,在现代岩溶研究成果的指导下,利用分时窗提取、断裂属性(Fault Fracture Attribute,FFA)裂缝预测等特色技术,详细刻画了一间房组孔洞、裂缝型储集层空间分布特征。利用地层CT扫描古河道识别、残厚法古地形恢复、基于优化算法的构造识别体断裂精细刻画等特色技术开展了岩溶储集层控制因素分析,指出古地形较高、水系发达、小断裂发育等是一间房组岩溶储集层发育的有利控制因素。面对现有碳酸盐岩岩溶储集层勘探难题,以现代岩溶理论为指导,钻井-地震结合,综合利用多种地震预测技术是开展研究区碳酸盐岩岩溶储集层识别和控制因素分析的重要手段。     

Source parameters determination for earthquakes in Kushiro,Japan considering source time function

This paper applies a new formulation to do moment tensor inversion for earthquakes in the Kushiro area of Japan. Comparing with conventional moment tensor inversion method, the new one takes the effect of source time function into consideration. For the inversion, best solution is obtained by minimizing the difference between the observed seismograms and the synthetic ones. And the best-fitting focal depth is determined from the variance reduction. The results indicate that half duration of source time function is proportional to the magnitude of earthquakes. Large earthquakes have long half duration, whereas that of moderate-small earthquakes is comparatively shorter. The focal mechanisms of all three earthquakes are of thrust fault type, which is mainly ascribed to the collision of the North American plate with the Eurasia plate in the late Cretaceous or Paleogene.     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古中西部地区中小地震矩震级研究

基于S震相"S窗"内的波形信号识别、品质因子Q(f)和22个台站场地响应,利用2009~2016年3月内蒙古中西部地区地震的波形资料,反演了182次中小地震的震源波谱参数,得到这些小震的零频幅值及其拐角频率,据此计算了这些地震的地震矩M_0、矩震级M_W和应力降Δσ。利用回归分析方法得到了近震震级与矩震级、矩震级与应力降的关系式。分析表明,近震震级与矩震级、矩震级与应力降呈线性关系。可见,将矩震级纳入地震的快报与正式目录中,可以丰富地震观测报告内容,更好地为地震应急和地震科研服务。     

三层模式背风波的理论研究

文中建立了一个背风波的三层理论模式 ;当三层Scorer参数在中层最大、高层次之、下层最小的情况下 ,利用该模式求得了背风波的理论波长及扰动的解析解 ,并对一个典型的个例计算了其背风波波长 ,并在此基础上分析了背风波波长对上、中、下三层Scorer参数变化的敏感性 ,结果表明波长对中层Scorer参数的变化比较敏感 ,对下层Scorer参数的大小和符号都不敏感 ,但在计算背风波波长时不能忽略下层的Scorer参数。