基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文)

It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.     

基于水平集的海岛（礁）提取

提出了适合航空影像区域分割的水平集运算策略,将原始影像首先进行格网分类,对分类后的海岸线格网进行水平集运算提取精确海岛（礁）边缘,并采用多核编程策略提高运算效率。实验表明该方案效果理想,能够正确提取海岛（礁）区域。     

雨雪冰冻天气多普勒雷达产品特征

2008年1月下旬至2月上旬福建省西部北部出现了历史罕见的雨雪冰冻灾害。利用多普勒雷达反射率、回波顶高、径向速度、垂直风廓线等产品对此次雨雪冰冻天气进行特征分析,通过分析发现:①冰晶和雪的回波强度通常比连续性降水回波弱,在反射率图上,回波表现为边缘毛松,丝缕状纹理结构明显,边缘模糊不清,没有确定的边界;②回波顶高和零度层较低,因为垂直方向大气相对较稳定,不利于对流发展,降水粒子没有发展到高空;③在径向速度图上存在牛眼,说明在低空有急流存在。在低层有环形的零速度线,中高层的零速度线为倒"S"形,表明低层有风切变存在,中高层有冷平流;④风廓线图上高层为西南风,中层为西北风,低层为西南风,近地层为东北风。说明从近地层到高层为"冷-暖-冷-暖"的层结结构,有利于冻雨天气形成。     

利用手机气象短信平台打造公共服务信息发布中心

手机气象短信因快捷、准确、定时、一对一服务,深受用户欢迎,但也面临着与报业、广电集团等运营商的竞争.气象部门应发挥自己的网络、品牌、用户众多等优势,拓宽服务范围,加强与公共事业部门合作,发布环保、供电、供水等关系群众生活的实时信息,把气象短信平台打造成公共服务信息发布中心.     

城市热岛效应和迁址对赤峰站温度的影响

选取赤峰站和周围3个站1959-2007年年平均气温资料,分析了热岛效应和迁址对赤峰站温度的影响.结果认为,迁址前赤峰站受到了城市热岛效应的影响,热岛效应使得赤峰站平均温度上升了0.7℃.热岛效应强度呈增强的趋势,增温率为0.29℃/10年.迁址后热岛效应消失,升温幅度减小,使得温度变化趋势出现了不连续现象,同时导致了气候变暖突变点的变化.     

"郑汴一体化"进程中生态廊道系统建设探讨

研究了废水中不同含盐量对生化处理效果以及生物学变化规律的影响.在废水含盐量低于22 g/L时,废水生化处理系统对COD的去除率可稳定在70%左右,污泥活性良好;随着进水盐浓度的增加,含盐量达到22 g/L时,污泥活性开始受到抑制,COD去除率急剧下降到50%左右;当废水含盐量达到31 g/L时,污泥活性明显受到抑制,污泥絮体开始部分解体,COD去除率下降到40%左右.     

Observational Study of a Peculiar Solar Limb Event Occurred on 11 January 2002

On 11 January 2002, using the Multi-channel Infrared Solar Spectrograph (MISS) at the Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO), we obtained Hα, Ca ii 8542 Å and He i 10?830 Å spectra and slit-jaw Hα images of a peculiar solar limb event. A close resemblance of its intensity to that of a small flare and the GOES X-ray flux indicates that it was an active prominence. However, its morphological evolution and velocity variation were different from general typical active prominences, such as limb flares, post-flare loops, surges and sprays. It started with the ejection of material from the flare site. In the early phase, the ejecta was as bright as a limb flare and kept rising until reaching the height of (8????10)×10⁴ km at an almost constant velocity of 91.7 km? s ^?1 with its lower part always connected to the solar surface. EUV images in 195 Å show similar structure as in the Hα line, indicating the coexistence of plasmas with temperatures differing by more than two orders of magnitude. Later some material started to fall back to another bright area on the solar surface. The falling material did not show the collimated structure of surges or the arc structure of flaring arches. A red-shift velocity of more than 200 km? s ^?1 was detected in a bright point close to the outer edge of the closed loop system formed later, which dispersed in a few minutes and became a part of the newly formed large loop. The ejected material did not leave the sun, indicating that the magnetic reconnection was not sufficient to remove the overlying field lines during the process. The spectral line profiles showed large widths and variable velocities, and therefore the line-pair method is not applicable to this event for the estimation of physical parameters.     

北太平洋500hpa候高度场的主成分分析

对太平洋500hPa候高度场和距平场进行了主成分分析,得出反映500hPa候高度特征的典型场。指出候高度场的第1特征向量的空间型是季节变化的主要型,它可解释总方差的74.5％,候高度场的其余特征向量与距平场的特征向量是按顺序的对应相似。这些典型场可以很好地描述北太平洋的大气环流特征。距平场的第1特征向量空间型清楚地反映了与厄尔·尼诺现象有关的环流型。     

深部地质资源地球物理探测技术研究发展

随着经济发展,人类经济社会对资源与能源的需求日益增加.我国在采资源正在枯竭,供需矛盾不断加大,对外依存度较高.国家对陆地盲区、深地和深海的资源勘探极为重视,同时未来勘探对象更为隐蔽、地质条件更为复杂,勘探与开采难度越来越大.地球物理方法作为勘查技术中最有效准确的预测方法之一,为满足勘探任务的需求,近年来地球物理勘探在研究新技术、新方法、仪器研发和数据处理解释等方面取得突破性进展.本文详细阐述我国的金属矿、煤矿、油气以及非常规油气资源的勘探开发现状,归纳了相应领域的地球物理技术新进展,对深地资源的勘探开发进行了展望,为资源与能源开发提供参考.     

论与核电厂址安全有关的自然灾害调查——以福建长乐漳港仙岐显应宫遗址埋没原因调查为例

本文以福建长乐显应宫遗址埋没原因调查为例,论述了对于可能影响核电站厂址安全的自然灾害,开展调查评价的技术思路和内容。希望对类似灾害的调查评价有所帮助。