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海底双相随机介质声反射的SVM神经网络分类识别研究

考虑海底沉积介质为双相介质,为了更好地模拟实际海底底质的不均匀性,将随机介质理论引入双相介质理论。首先,通过基于随机-双相介质理论的高阶有限差分数值技术模拟计算海底底质分别为泥质砂、泥、泥质砾时的地震反射波信号。然后利用小波变换分别求取不同底质的一次反射波的包络作为其特征向量,最后利用基于粒子群智能算法优化的支持向量机神经网络对这些反射波信号进行分类识别。为了进一步考察所用方法的抗噪能力,对正演得到的海底底质反射波信号分别加入10%、30%、50%的高斯白噪音之后再进行分类,支持向量机仍然取得了较好的分类预测效果。基于上述正演模拟及分类识别方法的论证,提出了一套行之有效的微机软件模拟海底沉积物分类识别的一般化流程,这将有利于开展海底沉积物反射特征的进一步研究。     

Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.     

Site selection in municipal solid waste management with extended VIKOR method under fuzzy environment

Nowadays, selection of the suitable disposal site in municipal solid waste (MSW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities, especially in fast-growing areas. Site selection can be viewed as a complicated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem requiring consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting quantitative and qualitative criteria. In this paper, linguistic variables, which can be expressed as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the selection criteria. The ordered weighted averaging operator is utilized to transform the fuzzy decision matrix into crisp values considering the decision maker’s attitudinal character. For selecting the best site, the extended VIsekriterijumska optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method is applied to determine the priority ranking of alternatives. As a result, a hierarchy MCDM model based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method is proposed to deal with the site selection problems in the MSW management system. An empirical study in Shanghai, China, is provided and comparison with the existing approach is conducted to illustrate the applicability and benefits of the proposed method.     

声波测试法在判别地下厂房EDZ中的应用

洞室开挖不可避免地会损伤岩体, 对于规模巨大、布置异常复杂的水电地下厂房围岩尤甚, 合理地确定开控损伤区(EDZ)分布成为地下洞室的信息化设计、施工和安全运营的关键性问题.在引入EDZ概念及强EDZ、弱EDZ和基本未损区分区的基础上, 提出采用声波测试方法来确定强EDZ和弱EDZ的分布.将声波波速-深度曲线划分为Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型和Ⅲ型等3种曲线类型, 根据曲线特征点, 对EDZ进行定性、半定量的初判.根据波速计算得出的损伤因子D, 对强、弱EDZ和基本未损区进行定量的判别.首次提出的基于声波测试法, 定性、半定量和定量相结合的综合研判法具有创新性, 为客观评价地下洞室EDZ提供了科学的方法.      

深部开采圆形巷道围岩破损区与支护压力的确定

应用经典塑性力学理论确定的圆形巷道围岩弹塑性应力场存在一些问题,这影响深部圆形巷道的稳定性评价及支护设计的合理性。应用塑性力学求解新体系确定的圆形巷道围岩弹塑性应力场准确解,进行了各向同性均质地层中圆形巷道破损区、地层残余强度与支护压力关系方面的研究,取得了如下成果:(1)破损区随开采深度的增加而增大,它们基本呈线性关系。(2)建立了支护压力与巷道埋深、围岩强度、围岩破坏后残余强度、围岩泊松比和重度之间的关系。研究成果可为支护设计提供重要参考。     

Emergency alternative evaluation and selection based on ANP,DEMATEL, and TL-TOPSIS

With the increasing occurrence frequency of emergency events, emergency management (EM) has been a very important issue in management science. One of the major activities of EM is to evaluate and select the most desirable emergency alternative(s). This paper proposes a new framework combining the analytic network process (ANP) method, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, and 2-tuple linguistic technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TL-TOPSIS) method to solve the emergency alternative evaluation and selection problem. This study has been done in three stages. In the first stage, we use DEMATEL technique to obtain the network relation map (NRM) among emergency alternative evaluation criteria or sub-criteria. In the second stage, we use ANP method to calculate the global weight of each sub-criterion based on the NRM among emergency alternative evaluation sub-criteria. In the third stage, the ratings of emergency alternative with respect to each sub-criterion are described by linguistic items, and the TL-TOPSIS method is used to rank the emergency alternative. Finally, a practical example of urban fire emergency alternative selection is given to illustrate the application of the proposed framework.

     

航空矢量重力测量水平分量的带限直接地形影响

基于第二类Helmert凝聚法的级数展开式,独立推导了航空矢量重力测量水平分量带限直接地形影响的计算公式。在中国西部山区选取了两条沿纬圈方向4000m航线高度上的航线,采用 的数字高程模型基于解析核计算了水平分量的直接地形影响,经低通滤波后与基于带限公式计算的地形影响进行了比较。数值计算结果表明,二者吻合较好,本文给出的带限地形影响公式可用于航空矢量重力测量水平分量的地形归算。     

长江三峡库区地震地形变监测研究

三峡地壳形变监测网络结合空间大地测量(GPS、InSAR)和传统大地测量的优点，在1998年以来的三峡工程建设期间和2003年水库首次蓄水中获取了大量监测成果。结果显示库区地壳运动的基本图像：垂直形变较为显著，主要来自因蓄水荷载而产生的形变，水平形变不明显．库区主要断层的活动性在蓄水期间有明显加强迹象。水准测量反映从1998年首期观测至2003年10月首次蓄水后的库区垂直位移．沉降范围较大；GPS给出了2003年蓄水前后库区的垂直位移，形变的范围主要集中在水库近岸区域。水准测量与GPS观测反应的垂直位移的量级基本一致，沉降的最大幅度在3～4cm左右。水准监测、GPS观测与重力监测结果有一定的对应性。从地壳形变监测与研究结果分析，近期负荷改变而诱发中强地震的可能性不大。