NCL在气象数据图形化中的应用

介绍了NCL在PC_LINUX上的安装，以及NCL数据图形化的编程方法，结合常用气象数据处理方法在NCL中的实际应用，与一般的图形显示软件GRADS对比，表明NCL在图形绘制方面的优越性。     

The Dependence of the Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Flux Rope on Its Orientation,with Possible Application to Geomagnetic Storm Prediction

Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B ₀ (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R ₀ (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B ₀ and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly.     

Preliminary study on the spore-pollen assemblages found in the Cenozoic sedimentary rocks in Grove Mountains, east Antarctica and its climatic implications

Glaciogene sedimentary rocks have been found in modem tills of the Grove Mountains, east Antarctica during the 1998 - 1999 Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition （CHNARE）. Based on the lithilogic and sedimentary features, these sedimentary rocks are correlated with Cenozoic sedimentary strata of the Pagodroma Group in the neighboring Prince Charles Mountains and the Sorsdal Formation in VestFold Hills. Sedimentary clasts contain sparsely Late Tertiary spores and pollens, including ： Toroisporis （ Lygodiaceae）, Osmunda, Granulatisporites （ Pteridaceae？） , Polypodiaceae, Podocarpus , Araucariaceae, Artemisia , Rhus , Nothofagidites , Proteacidites （Proteaceae） , Quercus , Fraxinoipollenites （ Oleaceae ） , Oleoidearumpollenites（ Oleaceae ）, Operculumpollis, and Tricolpopollenites. Most of the pollen and spores contained in these samples originate from local sources according to the conditions of their preservations as well as correlations with the microfossil assemblages found in the neighboring areas. The majority of the pollen assemblages, as represented by Podocarpus and Nothofagus, belong to the Weddellian biogeocenose, however some exotic components from the old sedimentary basement rocks may have been included during erosion of the proximal ice sheet. If the source areas of glaciogenic sedimentary rocks that bear the pollen and spores are assumed to be local, or in the up glacier areas, the pollen assemblages in these samples might represent an inland flora during a warmer period of the ice-sheet evolutionary history. The finding of the Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae in the pollen assemblages implies that they may belong to late Tertiary （most probably Pliocene）. The absence of diatoms in the samples analyzed may indicate that there are no Cenozoic marine strata in the interior of the east Antarctica beyond the Grove Mountains. The significances of the finding of the Nothofagus in these pollen assemblages are discussed on the basis of current knowledge about the age, distribution and ecological conditions of this kind of fossils found in Sirius Group or other strata outcropped in Antarctica. As a preliminary conclusion, we think that the existence of the Cenozoic glaciogenenic rocks and their pollen assemblages present new evidence for a large scale glacial retreat history in Grove Mountains of east Antarctica, and thus support a dynamic East Antarctic Ice Sheet （EAIS）. This is consistent with the interpretations of Webb et al. （1984）.     

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.     

Variations in the Ice Phenology and Water Level of Ayakekumu Lake,Tibetan Plateau,Derived from MODIS and Satellite Altimetry Data

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are highly sensitive to variations in climate changes, and the lake ice phenology and water level are considered to be direct indicators of regional climate variability. In this study, we first used 14 years of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover products to analyse the freeze dates, ablation dates, and ice coverage durations. The lake level changes during 2002–2015 were estimated, derived from satellite altimetry and Hydroweb data. Unexpectedly, the freeze dates of lake ice greatly advanced, and the ablation dates were markedly delayed. The complete freezing duration lengthened by approximately 77 days. As a result of the warm-wet climate in the northern TP, the lake area expanded from 770 to 995 km² during 2002–2015, and the water levels rose by 4.2 m in total, at a rate of 0.3 m/year. The progressive expansion of Ayakekumu Lake profoundly affected the ice phenology. Larger water volume with larger thermal capacity likely led to the delaying of ablation dates, with the freezing point depression caused by decreasing salinity. Some new narrow and shallow bays located in southern and eastern Ayakekumu Lake were conducive to early freezing of ice. Additionally, the changes in air temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation, and sunshine duration may be related to the prolonged ice cover duration since 2002. In sum, accurate measurements of lake ice and water levels are critical for understanding the water resource balance and hydrologic cycle in arid or semi-arid regions of China.     

Hydrocarbon Alteration Characteristics of Soils and Mechanism for Detection by Remote Sensing in East Sichuan Area,China

The type, strength, and spatial distributions of hydrocarbon alteration of the surface soil are studied in two sections in East Sichuan area through the simultaneous analysis of soil organic geochemistry, soil mineralogy, and soil chemistry. The spectral response and remote-sensing mechanism are studied through the soil spectral analysis in the range of VIS--NIR bands. The results of this study demonstrate that long-time hydrocarbon microseepage can induce mineral and chemical alteration of surface soil, including the increase of clay-mineral content and carbonate-mineral content, the increase of ferrous-iron content, and decrease of ferric-iron content. Soil mineral components related to hydrocarbon alteration have spatial coincidence with soil organic geochemical components. Increase of clay- and carbonate-mineral contents in the soil can cause decrease of reflectance in VIS–NIR bands and increase of Landsat band ratio TM5/TM7. Increase of ferrous-iron content and decrease of ferric-iron content in the soil may cause increase of reflectance in the range of 400 nm to 600 nm, and higher reflectance of Landsat band ratios of TM1/TM3 and TM2/TM3.     

Classifying natural-language spatial relation terms with random forest algorithm

The exponential growth of natural language text data in social media has contributed a rich data source for geographic information. However, incorporating such data source for GIS analysis faces tremendous challenges as existing GIS data tend to be geometry based while natural language text data tend to rely on natural language spatial relation (NLSR) terms. To alleviate this problem, one critical step is to translate geometric configurations into NLSR terms, but existing methods to date (e.g. mean value or decision tree algorithm) are insufficient to obtain a precise translation. This study addresses this issue by adopting the random forest (RF) algorithm to automatically learn a robust mapping model from a large number of samples and to evaluate the importance of each variable for each NLSR term. Because the semantic similarity of the collected terms reduces the classification accuracy, different grouping schemes of NLSR terms are used, with their influences on classification results being evaluated. The experiment results demonstrate that the learned model can accurately transform geometric configurations into NLSR terms, and that recognizing different groups of terms require different sets of variables. More importantly, the results of variable importance evaluation indicate that the importance of topology types determined by the 9-intersection model is weaker than metric variables in defining NLSR terms, which contrasts to the assertion of ‘topology matters, metric refines’ in existing studies.     

1989-2019年中国滑雪场时空特征及其演变规律

滑雪场空间分布特征、集聚演变状况与分布方向性变化深刻影响着中国滑雪旅游乃至冰雪产业的发展。运用地统计学空间分析原理,通过最邻近指数分析、空间自相关分析、核密度分析、标准差椭圆及平均中心分析,对1990年前后每10 a 中国滑雪场空间特征及其演变规律进行了综合分析。结果显示：① 1990年之前,仅在黑龙江和吉林省有7家滑雪场,且分布较为离散。② 1990—1999年,滑雪场数量呈小幅增长,空间上出现向新疆、河北和四川扩散的现象。③ 2000—2009年,滑雪场增速较快,并形成了以哈尔滨?牡丹江、北京?张家口两地区为核心的滑雪场双核驱动模式。④ 2010—2019年,是滑雪场数量增速最快的10 a,期间新增滑雪场522家,并在双核驱动模式基础上,逐步形成了以长白山、燕山–太行山为主要条带的联通南北的滑雪场空间结构。总体上,近30 a中国滑雪场呈现出了“南展西扩东进”的空间演变特征。该研究结果对于未来中国滑雪场空间布局、优化及其区域间的协调发展具有一定的理论指导意义。     

甘肃省河东地区气象干旱灾害风险评估与区划

干旱灾害是世界上危害最为严重的自然灾害之一。通过对干旱灾害风险成因的深入分析,结合灾害学理论,从干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力等4个方面入手,构建干旱灾害风险评估模型,然后依据甘肃省河东地区相关气象、生态和社会经济数据,在GIS平台下将干旱灾害的自然属性和社会属性统一起来进行干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：（1）研究区致灾因子危险性等级有自中部向东西两边逐渐降低的趋势,7个地区中干旱灾害危险性自大到小依次是天水、平凉、陇南、定西、临夏、甘南和庆阳。（2）研究区孕灾环境脆弱性有自北向南逐渐降低的趋势,脆弱性自大到小依次是庆阳、临夏、定西、平凉、天水、甘南和陇南。（3）研究区承灾体暴露性自大到小依次是天水、平凉、临夏、定西、陇南、庆阳和甘南。（4）防灾减灾能力自大到小依次是临夏、天水、平凉、定西、陇南、庆阳、甘南。（5）河东地区自北向南干旱灾害风险逐渐降低,干旱风险自大到小依次是定西、天水、庆阳、平凉、临夏、甘南和陇南。     

时空约束下的地铁可达性研究：以北京为例

以北京市为例,基于340个站点的时刻表构建地铁组织网络,采用网络分析法和累积机会法,对比在“工作日”和“双休日”“高峰期”和“非高峰期”等时空约束下的可达性动态。研究发现：① 由于起始地空间区位特征及沿线土地利用功能结构的多样性,不同线路的时刻组织模式各异。② 基于运营组织网络的地铁可达性存在时刻上的动态变化,一日内早晚高峰可达性最优,双休日可达性略低于平时。③ 基于运营组织网络的地铁可达性与基于设施网络的可达性存在明显空间差异,且距市中心15~20 km处的站点工作日和双休日的可达性差异最大,与地铁网络结构特征有关。综上,基于时刻组织时空约束下的可达性分析有利于了解地铁系统的精细化管理,并有助于进一步剖析居民出行规律和城市空间结构。