Short‐term flood inundation prediction using hydrologic‐hydraulic models forced with downscaled rainfall from global NWP

A short‐term flood inundation prediction model has been formulated based on the combination of the super‐tank model, forced with downscaled rainfall from a global numerical weather prediction model, and a one‐dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. Different statistical methods for downscaled rainfall have been explored, taking into account the availability of historical data. It has been found that the full implementation of a statistical downscaling model considering physically‐based corrections to the numerical weather prediction model output for rainfall prediction performs better compared with an altitudinal correction method. The integration of the super‐tank model into the 1D hydraulic model demonstrates a minimal requirement for the calibration of rainfall–runoff and flood propagation models. Updating the model with antecedent rainfall and regular forecast renewal has enhanced the model's capabilities as a result of the data assimilation processes of the runoff and numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the predicted water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement with those measured by stream gauges and comparable to those reproduced using the actual rainfall. Moreover, the predicted flood inundation depth and extent exhibit reasonably similar tendencies to those observed in the field. However, large uncertainties are observed in the prediction results in lower, flat portions of the river basin where the hydraulic conditions are not properly analysed by the 1D flood propagation model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Fourteen-Year Climatology of the Southwest Vortex in Summer

Statistical studies were conducted on the southwest vortex（SWV） during the summers of 2000–13 using high-resolution reanalysis data with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°× 0.5°. A total of 578 SWVs were detected, with a maximum interannual frequency of 55. The variation of the interannual frequency featured a period of around six years. The most active period of SWVs was early July and the maximum occurrence of SWVs appeared in early morning（0200–0800 Beijing Standard Time（BST））. Most of the SWVs were short-lived, with only 66 cases（11.4%） lasting for more than 24 h. In addition, the moving tracks and three-dimensional shape of long-lived（≥ 36 h） SWVs are also presented. For those SWVs that lasted for more than 12 h, four types of SWVs（Types I–IV） were identified using a new method, and the results indicated that the dynamical and thermodynamical conditions before the formation of SWVs are effective indicators of the subsequent evolution of the vortex and associated severe weathers. Moreover, a further level of classification was also constructed for Type II SWVs, which accounted for the largest proportion out of Types I–IV, and the results indicated that the lifespan, radius and maximum 6-h precipitation were all closely related to the intensity of precipitation before the formation of SWVs.     

Predicting water flow in fully and partially saturated porous media: a new fractal-based permeability model

Hydrogeology Journal - Predicting the permeability of porous media in saturated and partially saturated conditions is of crucial importance in many geo-engineering areas, from water resources to...     

Formation process of two massive dams following rainfall-induced deep-seated rapid landslide failures in the Kii Peninsula of Japan

Extreme heavy rainfall due to Typhoon Talas on September 2–4, 2011 in the Kii Peninsula, Japan, triggered numerous floods and landslides. This study investigates the mechanism and the entire process of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides forming two massive dams in the Kuridaira and Akatani valleys, respectively. The mechanism of the rapid deep-seated landslides is examined through a series of laboratory experiments on samples from sliding surfaces by using undrained high-stress dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus. The test results indicate that the failure of samples is triggered by excess pore water pressure generation under a shear displacement from 2 to 7 mm with a pore pressure ratio ranging from 0.33 to 0.37. The rapid movement of landslides is mainly attributed to high mobility due to the liquefaction behavior of both sandstone-rich and shale samples. Geomorphic settings and landslide mobility are major contributing factors to the dam formation. Additionally, shear displacement control tests show that a certain amount of shear displacement between 2 and 7 mm along the sliding surfaces of the gravitationally deformed slopes might have led to the failures. Importantly, computer simulation with LS-RAPID software using input parameters obtained from physical experiments is employed to interpret the entire formation process of the abovementioned two landslide dams. The simulation results are examined in accordance with the observed on-site geomorphic features and recorded data to explain the possibility of sliding processes. The results further point out that local failures are initiated from the lower middle part of the landslide bodies where the geological boundary exists. This condition most probably influences the landslide initiation in the two case studies. This research is therefore helpful for hazard assessment of slopes that are susceptible to deep-seated landslides and other sequential processes in areas with geology and geomorphology similar to that of the Kii Peninsula.     

Experimental study of the seismic behavior of partially concrete‐filled steel bridge piers under bidirectional dynamic loading

The seismic behavior of steel bridge piers partially filled with concrete under actual earthquake conditions was investigated by using 20 square section specimens subjected to static cyclic loading tests and single‐directional and bidirectional hybrid loading tests. Acceleration records of two horizontal NS and EW directional components for hard (GT1), medium (GT2), and soft grounds (GT3), obtained during the 1995 Kobe earthquake, were adopted in dynamic tests. Experimental results clearly showed that maximum and residual displacements under actual earthquake conditions cannot be accurately estimated by conventional single‐directional loading tests, especially for GT2 and GT3. A modified admissible displacement was proposed on the basis of bidirectional loading test results. The concrete fill can effectively improve the seismic resistance performance if the concrete inside the steel bridge piers is sufficiently high in quantity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridges under steel reinforcement corrosion due to chloride attack

This work presents a new seismic evaluation methodology for corroded reinforced concrete bridges on the basis of nonlinear static pushover analysis. Corrosion of steel reinforcement by chloride attack is considered. At the material level, the effects of corrosion are considered by modeling the degradation of the mechanical properties of steel reinforcement, softening of cover concrete under compression, degradation of core concrete due to confinement steel corrosion, and reduction of bond strength between concrete and steel reinforcement. At the structural level, the effects of corrosion on both flexural behavior and shear behavior, and their interaction are considered. Eleven bridges of various structural types in Taiwan that are located within 6.5 km of their nearest coastline are analyzed to identify their long‐term seismic performance. Relationships between the yield and collapse peak ground accelerations (PGAs), and service time and corrosion level are established for each bridge. Analysis results show that chloride corrosion starts in 2–32 years. The transverse steel reinforcement typically starts corroding before the longitudinal steel reinforcement, as the former has a thicker cover. Research results show that collapse PGA reduces by 0.94% or 1.23% per 10 years when the mean value plus 1 or 2 standard deviation of the collapse PGA values are considered, respectively. Therefore, we suggest increasing the design PGA from 4.70% to 6.15% for a bridge adjacent to a coastline to ensure adequate long‐term seismic performance for 50 years, the typical design life span of a regular bridge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The occurrence of cyanobacteria and microcystins in the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir (North Vietnam)

The occurrence of increasing blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in freshwaters has received much attention due to the ability of many cyanobacteria to produce potent cyanotoxins. In this paper, the occurrence of dominant cyanobacteria and the concentration of microcystins (MCs) analysis were investigated monthly from July 2008 to April 2009 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from February to April 2009 in the Nui Coc reservoir. Concentrations of intracellular MCs from water, bloom samples, and isolated strains were quantified by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). During the study period, the microscopic examination of the phytoplankton samples showed the dominance of the genus Microcystis in the water environment of the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir. The toxin analysis by HPLC demonstrated the presence of two MC variants: MC-LR and MC-RR in water samples. Total concentrations of the toxins in filtered samples from surface water ranged from non-detected to 0.91 μg L^?1 at Nui Coc reservoir and they ranged from 2.1 to 46.0 μg L^?1 at Hoan Kiem Lake. The results of the HPLC analysis confirmed the production of MCs in bloom samples (ranged from 115.9 to 184.6 μg L^?1 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from 726.5 to 1116 μg L^?1 in the Nui Coc reservoir) and isolated strains of Anabaena sp. and Microcystis with the concentration of MC ranging from 152 to 396.2 μg g^?1 dry mass, respectively.     

Long-term riverbed response of lower Tedori River,Japan, to sediment extraction and dam construction

Effects of sediment extraction and dam construction on changes of riverbed characteristics over yearly to decadal scales in the lower Tedori River of Japan are clarified. Over 1950–1991, the riverbed degraded in excess of 0.5–3.5 m. Concurrently, riverbed sediment volume of the 0–16 km reach decreased by 12.7 × 10⁶ m³. Intensive sediment extraction was the dominant cause of riverbed degradation during the period. During 1991–2007, an increase in riverbed sediment volume of 0.6 × 10⁶ m³ resulted in accretion of the riverbed by average depth 0.04 m. The cessation of sand and gravel mining (SGM), coupled with Tedorigawa Dam operation since 1980, was responsible for that accretion. Temporal change in riverbed elevation during 1950–2007 indicates that there were five phases of vertical adjustment. Combination of nonlinear regression models described four of these phases well. During 1950–1979, the first four modes of empirical orthogonal function analysis successfully captured temporal and spatial responses of the riverbed to natural and anthropogenic impacts. That is, the first mode explained the mean riverbed profile and temporal variation in riverbed sediment volume. The second through fourth spatial eigenfunctions reflected spatial variation in vertical adjustment rate for phases II, III and I, respectively. The corresponding temporal eigenfunctions explained the respective effects on the riverbed of SGM, of imbalance between sediment transport capacity and sediment supply, and of dredging activity.     

干旱区绿洲城市城镇化发展状况及协调性浅析——以吐鲁番地区为例

城镇化是一个国家或地区经济发展的必经途径,同时也是衡量某地区经济发展水平的重要标志之一。城镇化进程不仅关系到区域人口、经济和环境的可持续发展,还关系到区域平衡与区域生产效率,以致关系到区域的综合竞争力。利用2001—2011年吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态方面的相关数据,剖析吐鲁番地区城镇化系统,选出并构建吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态4个城镇化系统的6个评价指标体系,对指标进行定量分析;计算城镇化4个系统以及城镇化发展水平的综合评价指数及其各系统的协调度,根据各子系统评价指数建立数学模型,分析吐鲁番地区城镇化驱动因子以及制约该地区城镇化进程的影响因素;并推算出吐鲁番地区城镇化的变化和发展趋势。     

Farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: a study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Adaptation to climate change in agricultural settings depends on understanding farmers’ perceptions of the nature of climate change, their agency in adapting and the efficacy of adaptive measures themselves. Such knowledge can improve mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses the limited understanding of how farmers appraise their private adaptive measures and influential factors. It uses data from structured interviews with 598 rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Based on protection motivation theory, farmers’ assessments of private adaptive measures were measured by perceived self-efficacy, perceived adaptation efficacy and perceived adaptation cost. Multiple regressions were used to understand significant factors affecting those assessments. Some demographic and socio-economic factors, belief in climate change, information and objective resources were found to influence farmers’ adaptation assessments. It is shown that the sources and quality of information are particularly important. The improvement of both the accessibility and usefulness of local services (e.g. irrigation, agricultural extension, credit and health care) is deemed a necessity for successful adaptation strategies in the Mekong Delta. The paper also shows the application of PMT in measuring farmers’ appraisals of private adaptive measures to climate change, thereby opening this area for further research.