Effect of climate change on water resources in the Yuanshui River Basin: a SWAT model assessment

The Yuanshui River Basin is one of the most important river basins ensuring food production and livelihoods in the Hunan and Guizhou Provinces of China. Based on digital elevation model, land use, soil, and meteorological data, the soil and water assessment tool was used to analyze the response of water resources in the basin to climate change. Specifically, the monthly runoff from the Yuanshui River Basin was simulated. Runoff measurements from the 1961–1990 series were used to calibrate model parameters, and measurements from the 1991–2010 series were used for model validation. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, and water balance error were used to evaluate the simulation results; the values obtained for these parameters were 0.925, 0.929, and 2.0%, respectively, indicating that the established model can be applied successfully to runoff simulations. To evaluate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff, 24 different climate scenarios were modeled. By comparing the model simulation results with the baseline scenario, the effects of climate change were analyzed by year, during the dry season, and during extremely dry conditions. The results showed that runoff decreased with increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation, and that the effects of rainfall on runoff were greater than those of air temperature. Under the same baseline conditions, the effects of climate change on runoff were most pronounced during extremely dry months.     

安徽茶亭铜金矿床赋矿石英闪长玢岩黑云母成分特征及成岩成矿指示意义

安徽宣城茶亭矿床位于长江中下游成矿带东南缘的南陵-宣城盆地内,是近年来该盆地内新发现的大型斑岩型Cu-Au矿床。石英闪长玢岩是茶亭矿床主要的赋矿岩石,文章从石英闪长玢岩的造岩矿物黑云母入手,利用EMPA及LA-ICP-MS等原位微区分析方法,对黑云母进行了详细的矿物化学分析,旨在查明赋矿石英闪长玢岩形成的物理化学条件,并探讨其成岩成矿意义。分析结果表明:茶亭赋矿石英闪长玢岩中黑云母具有高w(TiO_2)、低w(Al_2O_3)的特征,整体富Mg、贫Fe。黑云母温压计算结果表明,在不同深度上,石英闪长玢岩具有相似的结晶温度及压力,其结晶温度为746～773℃,压力为44～85 MPa,对应深度为1.7～3.3 km,平均为2.47 km,显示石英闪长玢岩侵位深度相对较浅。黑云母中高的氧化系数(0.613～0.864)、高Mg#(0.557～0.864),以及w(MgO)介于14.73%～15.86%,均显示石英闪长玢岩为壳幔混源,并且以幔源为主。黑云母成分显示石英闪长玢岩形成于较高氧逸度条件下。浅部岩体具有较高的X_(Mg)值,表明浅部岩体氧逸度较高,可能指示随着岩浆的不断演化,残余岩浆的氧逸度不断降低。同时,石英闪长玢岩黑云母相对一般斑岩型铜矿具有较高的w(Cu),并且高Cl、低F。这些特征均有利于茶亭Cu-Au矿床的形成。     

川东南丁山地区龙马溪组页岩裂缝特征及对含气性的影响

川东南丁山地区是近年来四川盆地页岩气勘探开发的热点区域,裂缝的发育对页岩含气性及保存条件有重要的影响。综合运用野外露头、岩心、测井资料,结合岩石脆性矿物含量、岩石力学参数等数据,深入分析龙马溪组页岩裂缝发育特征和控制因素,并探讨了裂缝发育对含气性的影响。结果表明,丁山地区龙马溪组页岩裂缝主要以构造成因的剪切缝为主,裂缝优势方位共6组,主要包括4组平面剪切缝和2组剖面剪切缝,其发育主要受2个方向、3个阶段的构造应力场影响而成;裂缝延伸稳定,平均密度小,宽度小,充填程度高,主要被方解石和黄铁矿等充填。裂缝受控因素主要包括古构造应力场、构造部位、脆性矿物组分、岩石力学性质等;断层对裂缝发育具有明显的控制作用,其中断层两盘均存在裂缝发育程度急剧下降的临界范围,临界范围内裂缝发育程度高,超过此临界范围,裂缝发育程度变差且变化趋于平缓;不同期次的裂缝中,形成时间晚、规模过大、充填程度不高、与现今地应力方向一致或呈低角度相交的裂缝易造成页岩气的散失,对提高页岩含气性不利;龙马溪组岩石脆性矿物含量高,脆性指数属中等偏上程度,有利于构造缝发育且可压性较好。随着距齐岳山断裂距离的适当增加,龙马溪组页岩埋藏深度适中,地层压力增大,抗压强度增强高,脆性指数适中,构造保存条件变好,有利于不同方位的裂缝发育和页岩含气量的增加,位于该区域的DY2井与DY4井均位于该有利区域,含气性良好。研究结果对下一步深化页岩气勘探开发具有重要指导作用。     

张广才岭南段两个侏罗纪花岗岩体的地球化学特征及其地质意义

通过LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年和岩石化学分析,研究了张广才岭南段上营北岩体和帽儿山岩体的形成年代,地球化学特征和形成环境。上营北岩体为中粗粒钾长花岗岩,帽儿山岩体为中细粒黑云母钾长花岗岩。上营北岩体的加权平均年龄为178.9±2.7 Ma,帽儿山岩体为183.7±2.4 Ma,均为早侏罗世侵入岩。上营北岩体和帽儿山岩体主量元素都具有Si O_2和K_2O含量较高,Ti O_2、Mg O、Ca O含量较低,TFe O/Mg O值较高的特点;上营北岩体A/CNK=0.98~1.08,里特曼指数σ=1.51~2.66;帽儿山岩体含铝指数A/CNK=1.00~1.01,里特曼指数σ=2.12~2.36。上营北岩体稀土元素配分模式为海鸥型,轻重稀土分馏不明显;帽儿山岩体稀土元素配分模式为右倾型,轻稀土较重稀土富集;两个岩体均富集Rb、K,Ba、Nb、Ta、Sr、Ti、P、Ho、Er、U、Eu等元素出现不同程度的亏损。地球化学特征分析显示上营北岩体和帽儿山岩体均为A_2型花岗岩,为后造山型花岗岩,形成于兴蒙造山带后造山的伸展环境。     

新疆四顶黑山花岗岩体锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄及地质意义

新疆东天山位于中亚造山带南缘,天山—兴安造山系北天山造山带东段,发育大量泥盆纪—石炭纪花岗岩,其形成过程多与觉罗塔格洋的俯冲作用有关。四顶黑山花岗岩体位于东天山觉罗塔格构造岩浆带的东端,岩体在地表呈不规则状产出,侵位于元古界片岩-变火山岩、奥陶系变玄武岩和泥盆系雀儿山群火山岩;主要岩石类型为花岗岩和花岗闪长岩。花岗岩的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为380.4 Ma±3.7 Ma,表明岩体形成于晚泥盆世。岩石表现出高硅(w(SiO_2)=64.87%~74.71%)、高碱(w(K_2O)=3.35%~4.68%,w(Na_2O)=2.26%~3.85%)、富铝(w(Al_2O_3)=11.82%~14.13%)和低MgO(w(MgO)=0.56%~2.12%)、CaO(w(CaO)=1.68%~3.74%)、TiO_2(w(TiO_2)=0.26%~0.57%)、P_2O_5(w(P_2O5)=0.01%~0.19%)特征,A/CNK=0.83~1.00;富集Ba、K、La、Ce、Nd,亏损Th、Nb、Ta、Sr、Ti,铕负异常较明显(δEu=0.70~0.73);具有岛弧型花岗岩特征。四顶黑山花岗岩体形成于岛弧环境,属于觉罗塔格洋向南俯冲过程中的产物。四顶黑山花岗岩体两侧的镁铁-超镁铁质岩体的形成时代应晚于晚泥盆世。     

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.     

Beidou satellite maneuver thrust force estimation for precise orbit determination

Beidou satellites, especially geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites, need to be frequently maneuvered to keep them in position due to various perturbations. The satellite ephemerides are not available during such maneuver periods. Precise estimation of thrust forces acting on satellites would provide continuous ephemerides during maneuver periods and could significantly improve orbit accuracy immediately after the maneuver. This would increase satellite usability for both real-time and post-processing applications. Using 1 year of observations from the Multi-GNSS Experiment network (MGEX), we estimate the precise maneuver periods for all Beidou satellites and the thrust forces. On average, GEO and IGSO satellites in the Beidou constellation are maneuvered 12 and 2 times, respectively, each year. For GEO satellites, the maneuvers are mainly in-plane, while out-of-plane maneuvers are observed for IGSO satellites and a small number of GEO satellites. In most cases, the Beidou satellite maneuver periods last 15–25 min, but can be as much as 2 h for the few out-of-plane maneuvers of GEO satellites. The thrust forces acting on Beidou satellites are normally in the order of 0.1–0.7 mm/s². This can cause changes in velocity of GEO/IGSO satellites in the order of several decimeters per second. In the extreme cases of GEO out-of-plane maneuvers, very large cross-track velocity changes are observed, namely 28 m/s, induced by 5.4 mm/s² thrust forces. Also, we demonstrate that by applying the estimated thrust forces in orbit integration, the orbit errors can be estimated at decimeter level in along- and cross-track directions during normal maneuver periods, and 1–2 m in all the orbital directions for the enormous GEO out-of-plane maneuver.     

A new GPS/BDS tropospheric delay resolution approach for monitoring deformation in super high-rise buildings

A new approach for deformation monitoring of super high-rise building using GPS/BDS technology is proposed for the case when prior coordinates are known and the baseline is short but has a large height difference. The approach is based on the ambiguity function method (AFM). Considering that the double-differenced (DD) troposphere delay residual error cannot be ignored, the relative zenith tropospheric delay (RZTD) parameter is introduced into the original AFM equation. Thus, the RZTD and 3D coordinate parameters are together obtained through the modified AFM (MAFM). Due to the low computational efficiency of conventional AFM, an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm is used to search the four optimal parameters X/Y/Z/RZTD and replaces the grid search method. In this study, GPS/BDS deformation monitoring data for buildings with approximately 290 m height difference were used to verify the feasibility of the proposed MAFM. Numerical results show a single-epoch average computation time of approximately 0.3 s, which meets the requirements of near-real-time dynamic monitoring. The average accuracy of the GPS single-epoch RZTD solution is better than 1 cm, the combined GPS/BDS MAFM performance outperforms the GPS-only system, and using multi-epoch observations can further improve the accuracy of the RZTD solution. After RZTD correction, GPS/BDS monitoring precision can be improved, particularly the height dimension, whose precision is improved by approximately 6 cm.     

基于像元二分模型的森林郁闭度遥感估算

实现森林郁闭度的高精度估测,对于森林资源的监测与管理具有非常重要的意义。本文以小兴安岭带岭林业实验管理局为研究区,基于植被指数的像元二分模型进行了森林郁闭度的遥感反演,结果表明:模型的预估精度达到89.01%,决定系数R2达到0.859,RMSE为0.039,模型的一致性较好,可以实现大区域范围森林郁闭度的监测,满足了林业经营管理的需求。