Climate controls on rainfall isotopes and their effects on cave drip water and speleothem growth: the case of Molinos cave (Teruel,NE Spain)

The interpretation of stable isotopes in speleothems in terms of past temperature variability or precipitation rates requires a comprehensive understanding of the climatic factors and processes that influence the δ¹⁸O signal in the way through the atmosphere to the cave, where carbonate precipitates acquiring its final isotopic composition. This study presents for the first time in the Iberia Peninsula an integrated analysis of the isotopic composition of rainfall (δ¹⁸O_p) during 2010–2012 years and, through a detailed monitoring survey, the transference of the primary isotopic signal throughout the soil and epikarst into the Molinos cave (Teruel, NE Spain). Both air temperature and amount of precipitation have an important effect on δ¹⁸O_p values, clearly imprinting a seasonal variability modulated by an amount effect when rainfall events are more frequent or intense. Air mass history and atmospheric circulation influences are considered through the study of weather types, synoptic-scale climate patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation) revealing a dominant source effect on δ¹⁸O_p values in this region where tropical North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean are the two moisture source regions. A delay of 2–3 months occurs between the dripwater oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O_d) respect to δ¹⁸O_p values as a consequence of large residence time in the epikarst. Limited calcite precipitates are found from winter to spring when δ¹⁸O_d values are less negative and dripwater rates are constant. This study suggests that NE Iberian δ¹⁸O_calcite proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall and, if extending present-day situation towards the recent past, a biased signal towards winter values should be expected in Molinos speleothem records.     

Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System—recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827–840, 2013)—we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region.     

Assessing the performance of a foraminifera-based transfer function to estimate sea-level changes in northern Portugal

We assessed the performance of a transfer function model for sea-level studies using salt-marsh foraminifera from two estuaries of northern Portugal. An independent data set of 12 samples and 13 sub-fossil samples from a core were used to evaluate if reconstructions and errors derived from current models are adequate. Initial transfer function models provided very strong results as indicated by cross-validation (component 2; r² = 0.80-0.82; RMSEP ranged from 10.7 to 12.3 cm) and improved its performance by ca. 10% when sample size reached ca. 50. Results derived using an independent test data set indicate that cross-validation is a very effective approach and produces conservative errors when compared to observed errors. We additionally explored the possible effect of transforming the concentration data into percent in the error estimations by comparing the results obtained based on the use of both concentration and compositional data. Results indicate that this type of transformation does not affect the performance of the transfer function. Results derived from a reconstruction of sub-fossil samples from a core indicate that high-resolution sea-level reconstructions are possible, but show that depositional environments have to be selected carefully in order to minimize the impact of possible taphonomical loss.     

Recent advances on study of hadrosaurid dinosaurs in Heilongjiang(Amur) River area between China and Russia

Four main dinosaur-bearing sites have been investigated in latest Cretaceous deposits from the Amur/Heilongjiang Region: Jiayin and Wulaga in China (Yuliangze Formation) ,Blagoveschensk and Kundur in Rus- sia (Udurchukan Formation) . More than 90% of the bones discovered in these localities belong to hollowcrested lambeosaurine hadrosaurids: Charonosaurus jiayinensis at Jiayin,Amurosaurus riabinini at Blagoveschensk, Olorotitan arharensis at Kundur,and Sahaliyania elunchunorum at Wulaga. Flat-headed hadrosaurine hadrosau- rids are much less numerous,but appear well diversified as well: Kerberosaurus manakini at Blagoveschensk, Wulagasaurus dongi at Wulaga,and a new genus at Kundur. Theropods are represented by shed teeth and isolated bones; isolated scutes and teeth discovered at Kundur are tentatively attributed to nodosaurids. Palynologi- cal studies suggest that these sites are probably synchronous with the Lancian’ vertebrate localities of western North America,which represent the youngest dinosaur faunas in this area. However,the latest Cretaceous dinosaur assemblages are completely different in the Amur/Heilongjiang region (lambeosaurines abundant,ceratopsids absent) and in western North America (ceratopsids abundant,lambeosaurines extremely rare or absent) . This probably reflects some kind of geographical barrier between both areas by Maastrichtian time rather than strong differences in palaeoecological conditions.     

Structure and recent evolution of the Hazar Basin: a strike‐slip basin on the East Anatolian Fault,Eastern Turkey

The Hazar Basin is a 25 km‐long, 7 km‐wide and 216 m‐deep depression located on the central section of the East Anatolian Fault zone (eastern Turkey) and predominantly overlain by Lake Hazar. This basin has been described previously as a pull‐apart basin because of its rhombic shape and an apparent fault step‐over between the main fault traces situated at the southwestern and northeastern ends of the lake. However, detailed structural investigation beneath Lake Hazar has not been undertaken previously to verify this interpretation. Geophysical and sedimentological data from Lake Hazar were collected during field campaigns in 2006 and 2007. The analysis of this data reveals that the main strand of the East Anatolian Fault (the Master Fault) is continuous across the Hazar Basin, connecting the two segments previously assumed to be the sidewall faults of a pull‐apart structure. In the northeastern part of the lake, an asymmetrical subsiding sub‐basin, bounded by two major faults, is cross‐cut by the Master Fault, which forms a releasing bend within the lake. Comparison of the structure revealed by this study with analogue models produced for transtensional step‐overs suggests that the Hazar Basin structure represents a highly evolved pull‐apart basin, to the extent that the previous asperity has been bypassed by a linking fault. The absence of a step‐over structure at the Hazar Basin means that no significant segmentation boundary is recognised on the East Anatolian Fault between Palu and Sincik. Therefore, this fault segment is capable of causing larger earthquakes than recognised previously.     

Chironomid and pollen evidence for climate fluctuations during the Last Glacial Termination in NW Patagonia

We present chironomid and pollen records from the Huelmo site (～41°30′S), NW Patagonia, to examine in detail the timing and structure of climate changes during the Last Glacial Termination in the southern mid-latitudes. The chironomid record has the highest temporal and taxonomic resolution for this critical interval, and constitutes the first account of midge faunas at the culmination of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for the region. The chironomid record suggests cold and wet conditions during the LGM, followed by deglacial warming between 17.6 and 16.8 cal kyr BP. Relatively warm conditions prevailed between ～15–14 cal kyr BP, followed by a reversal in trend with cooling pulses at ～14 and 13.5 cal kyr BP, and warming at the beginning of the Holocene. Cool-temperate conditions prevailed during the Huelmo Mascardi Cold Reversal (HMCR) which, according to chironomid data, exhibits a wet phase (13.5–12.8 cal kyr BP) followed by a conspicuous drier phase (12.8–11.5 cal kyr BP). The chironomid and pollen records from the Huelmo site indicate step-wise deglacial warming beginning at 17.6 cal kyr BP, in agreement with other paleoclimate records from NW Patagonia and isotopic signals from Antarctic ice cores. Peak warmth during the Last Glacial Termination was achieved by ～14.5 cal kyr BP, followed by a cooling trend that commenced during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, which later intensified and persisted during the HMCR (13.5–11.5 cal kyr BP). We observe a shift toward drier conditions at ～12.8 cal kyr BP superimposed upon the HMCR, coeval with intense fire activity and vegetation disturbance during Younger Dryas time.     

Cme Phenomenology in Different Solar Magnetic Scenarios

The existence of three magnetic scenarios with magnetic field intensities one order apart was considered. CMEs were associated to different solar activity phenomena and solar features showing different characteristics. Those associated to intense magnetic fields were more complex, having either more components or multiple emissions and a greater magnetic energy to particle acceleration conversion rate. On the other hand, simple CMEs were found to associate to weak magnetic fields. No evidence was found that the process that leads to CME starts before their detection at 1.6 solar radii. This indicates that the whole volume moves upward simultaneously, no matter how deep it reaches into the solar atmosphere.     

Ancient Forests in European drylands: Holocene palaeoecological record of Mazarrón,south-eastern Spain

This paper presents a new Holocene palaeoecological record from coastal south-eastern Spain, a region characterised by high plant species diversity, varied physiography, high risk of desertification, and a history of human pressure on the landscape that stretches to antiquity. The pollen sequence shows four main vegetation phases: the first characterised by mixed forests of Pinus and evergreen Quercus accompanied by broad-leaved mesophilous trees, and a diversity of Mediterranean scrub; the second phase is characterised by mesophytic decline and expansion of Artemisia; a third, mid-Holocene phase of thermo-mesophytic maxima with prevalence of forested landscapes; and, finally, the progressive opening of the landscape with sparse pines, halo-xerophytic grasslands and sclerophyllous brushwood. The current treeless situation of south-eastern Spain is a relatively recent feature resulting from a dramatic change in the ecological structure of the regional landscapes. This paper stresses the continued vulnerability of these arid systems in the face of a changing climate. This sequence adds to previous palaeobotanical records (pollen and charcoal) and archaeological reports to suggest that deforestation started earlier in low-elevation areas and river basins than in the inland mountains and platforms, a factor that appears in connection to human exploitation of the natural environment.     

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.     

Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century

Natural Hazards - The adverse impact of climate change-associated extreme weather events is becoming more significant globally, particularly the flood impact on coastal and low-lying areas such as...