The focal depths of the 2008 Panzhihua earthquake sequence and the stress field in the source region

Focal depths of the 2008 M_s6.1 Panzhihua earthquake sequence and tectonic stress field in the source area are investigated.Source depths of 24 earthquakes in Panzhihua earthquake sequence with a magnitude M≥3.0 were determined using the seismic depth phase sPL;additionally,the focal depths of 232 earthquakes were measured by fitting the threecomponent waveforms of the P and S waves.The source depth of the main shock is～12 km.The majority of the aftershocks with magnitude M≥3.0 occurred in the brittle upper crust at the depths range of 12-18 km.Further,the Source mechanisms of the 232events around the Panzhihua earthquake source area were determined,and the results show that the earthquakes have predominantly strike-slip mechanisms in the Dianzhong Block,but display complexity of the focal mechanisms outside and near the boundary of the Dianzhong block.The 232 earthquake mechanisms from this study are combined with the solutions from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog to derive 2D stress field.The inversion results show that the Dianzhong block is predominantly under a strike slip faulting regime and the direction of the maximum principal compressionσ1 is northwestsoutheast (NW-SE)-trending.The distribution is coincide with GPS velocity field.However,orientations of principal stress axes as well as the faulting types change outside and near the Dianzhong block.The results show that the tectonic stress field in the study area is predominantly controlled by the southeast (SE)-trending horizontal movement and clockwise rotation of the Dianzhong block as a result of the eastward movement of eastern Tibetan meeting the old and rigid South China block (SCB).The Panzhihua earthquake ruptured at～12 km depth where the tectonic stress regime is under the SE-direction horizontal compression and the NE-direction horizontal extension.     

An application of the LTP＿DSEF model to heavy precipitation forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in 2018

Recently, a track-similarity-based Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed in an attempt to predict heavy rainfall from Landfalling Tropical cyclones(LTCs). In this study, the LTP_DSEF model is applied to predicting heavy precipitation associated with 10 LTCs occurring over China in 2018. The best forecast scheme of the model with optimized parameters is obtained after testing 3452 different schemes for the 10 LTCs. Then, its performance is compared to that of three operational dynamical models. Results show that the LTP_DSEF model has advantages over the three dynamical models in predicting heavy precipitation accumulated after landfall, especially for rainfall amounts greater than 250 mm. The model also provides superior or slightly inferior heavy rainfall forecast performance for individual LTCs compared to the three dynamical models. In particular, the LTP_DSEF model can predict heavy rainfall with valuable threat scores associated with certain LTCs, which is not possible with the three dynamical models. Moreover, the model can reasonably capture the distribution of heavier accumulated rainfall, albeit with widespread coverage compared to observations. The preliminary results suggest that the LTP_DSEF model can provide useful forecast guidance for heavy accumulated rainfall of LTCs despite its limited variables included in the model.     

中国大陆历史地震烈度统计

为研究中国地震烈度评定的时空分布特征,对中国大陆1966年以来464个地震的烈度数据进行统计,分析长期以来不同震级的震中烈度及灾区面积评定随时间的变化趋势,并对比中国东部和西部地区间的差异。结果表明：对于震级相同的地震,震中烈度和灾区范围的评定均存在波动,且在不同震级区间和不同时间阶段,波动的显著程度也有所不同。此外,中国东部和西部地区地震烈度评定虽然存在差异,但随着震级增大,差异逐渐减小。     

Preliminary study on community structures of meiofauna in the middle and eastern Chukchi Sea

Sediment core samples were collected from 17 stations in the middle and eastern Chukchi Sea during the sixth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(CHINARE-Arctic) in summer 2014.The samples were analyzed for composition,abundance,biomass,vertical distribution,size spectra,and ecological indexes of meiofauna.A total of 14 meiofauna taxa were detected,and the free-living marine nematodes comprised the most dominant taxon,accounting for 97.21% of the average abundance.The abundance and biomass of meiofauna were within ranges of(218.12±85.83)-(7 239.38±1 557.15) ind./(10 cm~2) and(130.28±52.17)-(3 309.56±1 751.80) μg/(10 cm~2),with average values of(2 391.90±1 966.19) ind./(10 cm~2) and(1 549.73±2 042.85) μg/(10 cm~2)(according to dry weight)respectively.Furthermore,91.26% of the individuals were distributed in the top layer of 0-5 cm of surface sediment,and 90.84% had sizes of 32-250 μm.Group diversity index of meiofauna in the survey area was low,and the variation of abundance was the main difference in meiofauna communities among all stations.Abundance and biomass of meiofauna were not significantly correlated with environmental factors except concentration of nutrient Si in bottom seawater.Abundance of meiofauna in shallow water of marginal seas in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean is likely at a same level and higher than that in most of China sea areas,suggesting that the shallow water of the summer Chukchi Sea is a continental shelf area with rich resources of meiofauna.The Chukchi Sea is important for studying the ecosystem of the Arctic Ocean and environmental responses.However,studies on meiofauna in the Chukchi Sea are still not enough,and in the future,natural and human disturbances may increase due to global warming,the Arctic channel opening,and other factors.Thus,more studies on meiofauna should be required,in order to know more about how the Arctic benthic community would alter.     

基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计

本文提出了一种基于三参量威布尔分布模型估计潜在震源区强震危险性的方法。选择日本东海-南海地震带为潜在震源区,分别基于强震发震时间间隔服从二参量和三参量的威布尔分布,估计该区强震危险性,结果表明三参量威布尔分布的拟合效果优于二参量威布尔分布。选择马尼拉海沟俯冲带为潜在震源区,基于三参量威布尔分布估计该区强震危险性,结果显示未来10、30和50年该区强震（M≧7.5）复发概率分别为62%、82%和89%,最短发震时间间隔估计为1.70年。     

基于三轴试验的软土震陷简化计算方法研究

本文通过对天津滨海新区典型软土的静、动力学试验,分析了软土残余应变的变化规律,提出了结合地区震陷经验系数的软土震陷简化计算方法,并利用1976年唐山7.8级地震中天津塘沽地区软土震陷观测资料对计算方法进行了验证。结果表明,本方法用于估算自由地表震陷量是可行的,对中小工程中软土震陷量的估算具有一定的参考价值。     

Cross double‐difference inversion for simultaneous velocity model update and microseismic event location

Microseismic monitoring is an approach for mapping hydraulic fracturing. Detecting the accurate locations of microseismic events relies on an accurate velocity model. The one‐dimensional layered velocity model is generally obtained by model calibration from inverting perforation data. However, perforation shots may only illuminate the layers between the perforation shots and the recording receivers with limited raypath coverage in a downhole monitoring problem. Some of the microseismic events may occur outside of the depth range of these layers. To derive an accurate velocity model covering all of the microseismic events and locating events at the same time, we apply the cross double‐difference method for the simultaneous inversion of a velocity model and event locations using both perforation shots and microseismic data. The cross double‐difference method could provide accurate locations in both the relative and absolute sense, utilizing cross traveltime differences between P and S phases over different events. At the downhole monitoring scale, the number of cross traveltime differences is sufficiently large to constrain events locations and velocity model as well. In this study, we assume that the layer thickness is known, and velocities of P‐ and S‐wave are inverted. Different simultaneous inversion methods based on the Geiger's, double‐difference, and cross double‐difference algorithms have been compared with the same input data. Synthetic and field data experiments suggest that combining both perforation shots and microseismic data for the simultaneous cross double‐difference inversion of the velocity model and event locations is available for overcoming the trade‐offs in solutions and producing reliable results.     

Decadal morphological evolution of the mouth zone of the Yangtze Estuary in response to human interventions

The morphology of the Yangtze Estuary has changed substantially at decadal time scales in response to natural processes, local human interference and reduced sediment supply. Due to its high sediment load, the morphodynamic response time of the estuary is short, providing a valuable semi-natural system to evaluate large-scale estuarine morphodynamic responses to interference. Previous studies primarily addressed local morphologic changes within the estuary, but since an overall sediment balance is missing, it remains unclear whether the estuary as a whole has shifted from sedimentation to erosion in response to reduced riverine sediment supply (e.g. resulting from construction of the Three Gorges Dam). In this paper we examine the morphological changes of two large shoals in the mouth zone (i.e. the Hengsha flat and the Jiuduan shoal) using bathymetric data collected between 1953 and 2016 and a series of satellite images. We observe that the two shoals accreted at different rates before 2010 but reverted to erosion thereafter. Human activities such as dredging and dumping contribute to erosion, masking the impacts of sediment source reduction. The effects of local human intervention (such as the construction of a navigation channel) are instantaneous and are likely to have already resulted in new dynamic equilibrium conditions. The morphodynamic response time of the mouth zone to riverine sediment decrease is further suggested to be >30 years (starting from the mid-1980s). Accounting for the different adaptation time scales of various human activities is essential when interpreting morphodynamic changes in large-scale estuaries and deltas. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

江苏盐城盐纺井地球化学异常信息提取及机理分析

依据江苏省盐城市纺织厂井Ca²⁺和Cl^-月均值浓度,利用从属函数和自适应阈值法对该井进行了地球化学异常信息提取与分析;结合波速比和地磁谐波振幅比数据,利用膨胀扩容模式开展了映震机理讨论。结果表明,2008～2016年Ca²⁺浓度出现6次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,Cl^-浓度出现4次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,较好地对应了台站200km范围内M_L≥4.0的地震。此外,根据波速比、地磁谐波振幅比和该井地下水地球化学成因等分析结果,判断Ca²⁺、Cl^-浓度在震前的快速上升与深部流体上涌有关。     

Merging multi-source precipitation products or merging their simulated hydrological flows to improve streamflow simulation

Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products are widely utilized for streamflow simulation, which is one critical hydrological application, especially for ungauged regions. Possible ways to improve streamflow simulation are investigated in this study by merging multi-source precipitation products, or directly merging streamflow simulated with different precipitation products. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (3B42 Version 7) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and one reanalysis precipitation product, National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) are selected. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to merge multi-source precipitation estimates and streamflow simulations. The results show that merging multi-source precipitation products made little difference to improve streamflow simulation. Merging multi-source streamflow simulations using the BMA generally achieved better performance on streamflow simulation, indicating that this approach is more efficient than merging multi-source precipitation products.