山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

铜陵地区老鸦岭层状钼矿床铅同位素组成研究

安徽铜陵老鸦岭矿床中二叠系大隆组(P2d)顶部的含矿(钼矿化)黑色页岩以及附近(立新煤矿)同一层位不含矿黑色页岩的实测铅同位素组成分别为：^206Pb/^204Pb20.20～22.37,^207Pb/^204Pb15.67～15.82,^208Pb/^204Pb38.47～38.60和^206Pb/204Pb18.83～20.80,^207Pb/^204Pb15.65～15.76,^208Pb/^204Pb38．84～39．22。对137Ma的放射成因Pb进行校正后的铅同位素组成表明，含矿黑色页岩和不含矿黑色页岩均与燕山晚期火成岩无关，老鸦岭含矿黑色页岩可能具沉积成因。对沉积(约250Ma)以来的放射成因Pb进行校正后的铅同位素组成表明：不含矿黑色页岩的Pb源自上地壳，而含矿黑色页岩的Pb(因而推测其他成矿金属)可能源于上地壳物质(与不含矿黑色页岩的Pb源相似)与下地壳物质的混合。     

REE and (э)Nd of clay fractions in sediments from the eastern Pacific Ocean: Evidence for clay sources

Clay fractions in the non-calcareous surface sediments from the eastern Pacific were analyzed for clay minerals, REE and 143Nd/144Nd. Montmorillonite/illite ratio (M/I ratio), total REE contents ((REE), LREE/HREE ratio and cerium anomaly (бCe) may effectively indicate the genesis of clay minerals. Clay fractions with M/I ratio >1, бCe (0.85, (REE (400 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio (4, and REE patterns similar to those of pelagic sediments are terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions and contain more autogenetic montmorillonite. Clay fractions with M/I ratio <1, бCe=0.86 to 1.5, ΣREE=200 to 350 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio (6 and REE distribution patterns similar to that of China loess are identified as terrigenous clay fraction. The 143Nd/144Nd ratios or (э)Nd values of clay fractions inherit the features of terrigenous sources of clay minerals. Clay fractions are divided into 4 types according to (э)Nd values. Terrigenous clay minerals of type I with the (э)Nd values of -8 to -6 originate mainly from North American fluvial deposits. Those of type II with the (э)Nd values of -9 to -7 are mainly from the East Asia and North American fluvial deposits. Those of type III with (э)Nd values of -6 to -3 could come from the central and eastern Pacific volcanic islands. Those of type IV with (э)Nd values of -13 to -12 may be from East Asia eolian. The terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions show patchy distributions, indicating that there are volcanic or hot-spot activities in the eastern Pacific plate, while the terrigenous clay fractions cover a large part of the study area, proving that the terrigenous clay minerals are dominant in the eastern Pacific.     

采用泵喷补偿技术的近底拖体水压场数值模拟研究

采用标准 k-ε 模型,结合 Fluent 软件,对采用泵喷补偿技术的拖体水下被拖行运动所产生的压力场变化进行了数值模拟实验。结果表明：采用泵喷补偿技术对拖体水压场的“马鞍形”分布特性影响较小, 但随着喷水速度的增加,拖体首端压力负值略有增加,而中段的负峰幅值显著增加,当喷水速度达到一定值后,拖体的压力特性曲线已经较为接近期望值,证明泵喷补偿技术具有一定的可行性。     

预测有效波高的深度学习模型研究

研究基于RNN、LSTM、GRU深度学习模型,针对NOAA浮标数据集中的44013、44014、44017浮标的数据,通过斯皮尔曼相关性分析提高模型预测效果。实验结果表明,在进行相关性分析后,S-RNN、S-LSTM、 S-GRU的预测效果均比原始RNN、LSTM、GRU模型预测效果好。此外,提出一种基于LSTM的LSTM-Attention 波高预测模型,并进行相关实验,量化LSTM-Attention模型的预测效果,实验结果表明LSTM-Attention模型有更好的预测效果。为评估模型的泛化能力,研究还提出了一种采用邻近浮标数据进行学习,预测浮标缺失数据的方 法。实验结果表明,该方法的预测精度可以达到97.93%。本研究为海浪预测提供了新的方法和思路,也为未来深 度学习模型在海浪预测中的应用提供了参考。     

可解释性长短期记忆模型用于预测湖泊总磷浓度变化

对湖泊总磷的变化预测和来源识别对水资源调度和流域生态治理有着重要的意义,然而复杂的生化反应和水动力条件导致的非平稳性给湖泊总磷浓度的准确预测带来极大的困难。为克服这一挑战,本文引入了基于加权回归的季节趋势分解(seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess,STL)技术和夏普利加法(SHapley additive exPlanations,SHAP)结合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory neural network,LSTM)和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)构建了一个可解释的预测框架,以增强对湖泊总磷浓度演变的预测并提高其可解释性。研究表明:(1)在骆马湖总磷浓度的预测中,该框架拥有较好的预报精度(R²=0.878),优于LSTM和卷积长短期记忆模型(convolutional neural networks and long short term memory network,CNN-LSTM)。当预测时间步长增加到8 h时,该框架有效提高了总磷浓度的预测精度,平均相对误差和均方根误差分别降低了47.1%和33.3%。从预测趋势来看,骆马湖在汛期的总磷平均浓度为0.158 mg/L,相较于非汛期的平均浓度,增加了202.1%。(2)运河来水是骆马湖总磷浓度最重要的影响因素,贡献权重为60.0%,并且不同断面(三湾、三场)的污染源受水动力、气象等因素的影响存在显著的时空差异。本文凸显了神经网络模型在预警水体污染方面的可实施性,并且为提高传统神经网络的学习能力和可解释性的开发与验证提供了重要方向。     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。     

Seasonal change of ice algal and phytoplankton assemblages in the Nella Fjord near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica

The ice algal and phytoplankton assemblages were studied from Nella Fjord near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica from April 12 to December 30, 1992. Algal blooms occurred about 3 cm thick on the bottom of sea ice in late April and mid November to early December respectively, and a phytoplankton bloom appeared in the underlying surface water in mid December following the spring ice algal bloom. The biomass in ice bottom was 1 to 3 orders of magnitude higher than that of surface water. Amphiprora kjellmanii, Berkeleya sp., Navicula glaciei, Nitzschia barkelyi, N. cylindrus /N. curta, N. lecointei and Nitzschia sp. were common in the sea ice temporarily or throughout the study period. The biomass in a certain ice segment was decreased gradually and the dominant species were usually succeeded as the season went on. Nitzschia sublineata and Dactyliosolen antarctica were two seasonal dominant species only observed in underlying water column. The assemblages between bottom of ice and underlying surface water were different except when spring ice algae bloomed. The evidence shows that the ice algal blooms occurred mainly by in situ growth of ice algae, and the phytoplankton bloom was mostly caused by the release of ice algae.     

Softs of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic: Part I. Formation processes and pedogenetic particularities

Based on the data obtained from tens of the investigated soil profiles scattered over the Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic, the soil-forming processes were discussed. It was concluded that on the weathering crusts resulted from various physical courses, the strong freeze-thaw action within regolith, significant organic matter accumulation, evident leaching and illuviation, as well as initial argillification dominated the formation and development of the soils on the Fildes Peninsula. Furthermore, this study indicated that the juvenility of genesis, poor profile-expression, variation in column thickness, etc. characterized the pedogenetic features of the soils of the Fildes Peninsula.     

黑麦草在净化富营养化水的人工湿地生态工程中的作用

在人工湿地生态工程中利用黑麦草(Lolium perenne L．)净化污水，得到了较好的效果。结果表明：利用黑麦草在冬春季节的生长，可使亚热带地区人工湿地常年运行，黑麦草在3—4月份对水体就有明显的净化作用。在春夏季节，特别在5月份黑麦草可以获得较高的生物量和N、P的积累量，因而净化贡献最大。从产草量方面考虑，延长黑麦草的生长期能获得较高的生物量；从植物体所含营养物质状况和饲用价值看，增加收割次数的黑麦草N、P含量高，饲用价值高；但从黑麦草对污水中N、P的吸收和积累量方面考虑，收割次数过高则不利于黑麦草对污水的净化及N、P的累积。从上述几方面综合考虑，在黑麦草整个生长期收割次数以2．3次为宜。