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811.
Yuhu?Zhang Weiwei?LiEmail author Qiuhua?Chen Xiao?Pu Liu?Xiang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2471-2481
Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R2). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin. 相似文献
812.
北京时间2014年8月3日16时30分,云南省鲁甸县发生了MS 6.5地震,本次地震的发震构造为包谷垴-小河断裂。野外调查发现,王家坡不稳定斜坡上的地表破裂在整个破裂带中比较具有代表性,其地表破裂带整体走向N45°W-N50°W,并且由剪切破裂、张剪切破裂、压剪切破裂、张性破裂以及鼓包等典型地表破裂组成。其中左、右地表破裂边界与发震断层的出露位置一致,由断层错动造成;而部分地表破裂与断层的位置不重合,其成因分为2种,一种是发震断层导致的一些次级地表破裂,另一种是地震引发的滑坡后缘破裂。地表破裂类型和基本组合特征显示出王家坡潜在不稳定斜坡上的地表破裂带具有左旋走滑的性质。 相似文献
813.
Near-source noise suppression of AMT by compressive sensing and mathematical morphology filtering 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Guang Li Xiao Xiao Jing-Tian Tang Jin Li Hui-Jie Zhu Cong Zhou Fa-Bao Yan 《应用地球物理》2017,14(4):581-589
In deep mineral exploration, the acquisition of audio magnetotelluric (AMT) data is severely affected by ambient noise near the observation sites; This near-field noise restricts investigation depths. Mathematical morphological filtering (MMF) proved effective in suppressing large-scale strong and variably shaped noise, typically low-frequency noise, but can not deal with pulse noise of AMT data. We combine compressive sensing and MMF. First, we use MMF to suppress the large-scale strong ambient noise; second, we use the improved orthogonal match pursuit (IOMP) algorithm to remove the residual pulse noise. To remove the noise and protect the useful AMT signal, a redundant dictionary that matches with spikes and is insensitive to the useful signal is designed. Synthetic and field data from the Luzong field suggest that the proposed method suppresses the near-source noise and preserves the signal well; thus, better results are obtained that improve the output of either MMF or IOMP. 相似文献
814.
Tian Li Yan Liu Xiao Cheng LunXi Ouyang XinQing Li JiPing Liu Mohammed Shokr FengMing Hui Jing Zhang JiaHong Wen 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2017,60(4):697-706
Antarctic tabular icebergs are important active components in the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system. Seafloor topography is the key factor that affects the drifting and grounding of icebergs, but it has not been fully investigated. This study analyzes the impact of seafloor topography on the drifting and grounding of Antarctic tabular icebergs using Bedmap-2 datasets and iceberg route tracking data from Brigham Young University. The results highlight the following points. (1) The quantitative distributions of iceberg grounding events and the tracking points of grounded icebergs are mainly affected by iceberg draft and reach their peak values in sea water with depths between 200 m and 300 m. The peak tracking point number and linear velocity of free-drifting icebergs are found in the Antarctic Slope Front (water depth of approximately 500 m). (2) The area of possible grounding regions of small-scale icebergs calved from ice shelf fronts accounts for 28% of the sea area at water depths less than 2000 m outside the Antarctic coastline periphery (3.62 million km2). Their spatial distribution is mainly around East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The area of possible grounding regions of large tabular icebergs with long axes larger than 18.5 km (in water depths of less than 800 m) accounts for 74% of the sea area. (3) The iceberg drifting velocity is positively correlated with ocean depth in areas where the depth is less than 2000 m (R=0.85, P<0.01). This result confirms the effect of water depth variations induced by seafloor topography fluctuations on iceberg drifting velocity. 相似文献
815.
MingHu Ding Tong Zhang CunDe Xiao ChuanJin Li Bo Jin LinGen Bian ShuJie Wang DongQi Zhang DaHe Qin 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2017,60(4):672-685
A high-frequency and precise ultrasonic sounder was used to monitor precipitated/deposited and drift snow events over a 3-year period(17 January 2005 to 4 January 2008) at the Eagle automatic weather station site,inland Antarctica.Ion species and oxygen isotope ratios were also generated from a snow pit below the sensor.These accumulation and snowdrift events were used to examine the synchronism with seasonal variations of δ~(18)O and ion species,providing an opportunity to assess the snowdrift effect in typical Antarctic inland conditions.There were up to 1-year differences for this 3-year-long snow pit between the traditional dating method and ultrasonic records.This difference implies that in areas with low accumulation or high wind,the snowdrift effect can induce abnormal disturbances on snow deposition.The snowdrift effect should be seriously taken into account for high-resolution dating of ice cores and estimation of surface mass balance,especially when the morphology of most Antarctic inland areas is similar to that of the Eagle site. 相似文献
816.
本文提出了一种新的混合有限元-无限元三维可控源电磁法(CSEM)问题快速高精度正演模拟算法.首先从电场双旋度方程出发,推导了水平电偶极子源的二次场边值问题,采用无限元代替截断边界条件和有限元离散内部计算区域的新策略,达到减小计算区域的目的,基于并行直接求解技术,实现多源CSEM问题的快速精确求解.其次,通过层状解析模型测试,一方面验证了新算法的正确性,另一方面通过与其他三种已知CSEM问题求解策略进行对比,表明了本文提出的基于二次场有限元-无限元算法具有离散区域小、求解速度快和计算精度高等优点.最后,通过3D模型计算,清晰直观地模拟了场源阴影效应,为野外数据的处理与解释提供指导. 相似文献
817.
冰川作为地球系统中重要的组成部分,是全球气候变化的敏感指示器和调节器.冰川运动的遥感监测也是进行冰川研究的重要内容.本文主要采用偏移追踪的方法,利用2003-2010年期间7对雷达单视复数数据监测了青藏高原珠穆朗玛峰地区的卓琼冰川运动情况.经验证,本研究获得的冰川流速结果可靠.卓琼冰川的流向自西向东,流速自冰川末端向上游积累区逐渐增加,流速大小主要来自距离向的贡献.研究结果显示,卓琼冰川在2003-2005年期间流速较大,最大流速达到45 m·a~(-1),而在2005-2010年期间流速有所降低,最大流速在35~40 m·a~(-1)范围内波动;卓琼冰川年际间流速变化基本一致,冰川中部存在流速突变情况,突变幅度为3~7 m·a~(-1),但该尺度的突变并不会影响卓琼冰川的总体运动趋势.此外,本文还分析了气象以及地理位置因素对卓琼冰川运动的影响. 相似文献
818.
Cyclic behavior and failure mechanism of self‐centering energy dissipation braces with pre‐pressed combination disc springs
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A new type of bracing system composed of friction energy dissipation devices for energy dissipation, pre‐pressed combination disc springs for self‐centering and tube members as guiding elements is developed and experimentally studied in this paper. The mechanics of this system are explained, the equations governing its hysteretic responses are outlined and large‐scale validation tests of two braces with different types of disc springs are conducted under the condition of low cyclic reversed loading. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed bracing system exhibits a stable and repeatable flag‐shaped hysteretic response with an excellent self‐centering capability and effective energy dissipation throughout the loading protocol. Furthermore, the maximum bearing force and stiffness are predicted well by the equations governing its mechanical behavior. Fatigue and destructive test results demonstrate that the proposed bracing system can maintain stable energy dissipation and self‐centering capabilities under large deformation cyclic loading even when the tube members exceed the elastic limit and that a larger bearing capacity is achieved by the system that has disc springs without a bearing surface. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
819.
地震预警系统是防震减灾中最为行之有效的方法之一,其中对地震震级的估算是非常重要且困难的。目前,比较成熟的地震震级估计方法包括:基于最大卓越周期(τpmax)、特征周期(τc)和最大位移幅值(Pd)方法。利用2014年云南地3次大地震主震及余震P波初期部分的信息,验证与研究了四川地区地震预警快速震级估算模型在云南地区的适用性,结果表明3种参数模型均能在短时间内有效地进行震级估算。对于本研究数据库而言,Pd-4 s时窗模型最优,3个参数模型求得的估计震级在大震下均没有出现明显的震级饱和现象。但由于目前难以在短时窗下得到准确的震源/中距,因此推荐在云南地区地震预警系统中使用τpmax和τc模型来估计震级。 相似文献
820.