华北地区冬小麦产量预报模式的初步研究

本文提出了一种省级以上尺度的作物-天气产量预报模式。首先,对气候产量进行R-型聚类分析,将全区分成若干亚区;然后,用累加型及阶乘型的多重非线性回归方法组建预报方程。本文提出的模式,原则上可以适用于多种尺度和不同作物,预报时效也可以根据生产需要和作物发育阶段的特点给定。 华北地区冬小麦产量预报的时效,分为冬前、越冬后及黄熟前三个阶段。预报方程的复相关系数,分别可达到0.70,0.90和0.95以上;平均相对剩余误差为15％,8％和4％。     

地面核磁共振感应系统(NUMIS)及其在找水中的应用

地面核磁共振找水技术是一种新的地球物理勘探技术,具有直接找水的特点.本文简述了该方法的原理、仪器及工作过程,并给出了两个应用实例来说明该方法的应用效果.     

大别造山带中元古代变沉积岩碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学与Hf同位素特征及其地质意义

大别造山带位于扬子陆块北缘,近年来的研究显示其发育太古代-古元古代的结晶基底,但一直缺乏中元古代的物质信息.首次报道了大别造山带核部一套中元古代“变砂岩-大理岩”变沉积岩组合,通过对该套地层的3个样品碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学和Lu-Hf同位素特征分析,显示最年轻的锆石平均年龄分别为:1 556±13 Ma、1 541±20 Ma和1 584.3±24 Ma,在误差范围内基本一致,说明该套地层的形成时代为中元古代,锆石变质增生边记录该套地层经历了124.1±2.3 Ma的变质事件,碎屑锆石年龄频谱和Lu-Hf同位素特征显示该套地层物源特征与神农架群一致;碎屑锆石峰值年龄2 682 Ma,2 461 Ma记录了“大别陆块”结晶基底两期重要生长事件,峰值年龄2 043 Ma,1 803 Ma和1 572 Ma显示“大别地块”可能参与Columbia超大陆聚合-裂解事件,在新元古代早期与“黄陵陆核”拼合而成为扬子陆块统一基底的重要组成部分.      

辽宁中部城市群边界层气象场的数值模拟研究

利用中尺度数值模式MM5模拟和分析了辽宁中部城市群各个季节的边界层气象场特征.模拟结果显示:在边界层内,由流场的分布造成污染物的滞留最有可能发生在冬季,其它季节由于各自的原因会使污染物疏散而不易造成污染.同时,逆温也是导致污染物堆积的一个重要原因,研究表明对于城市群内的5个城市,逆温现象主要出现在冬季,在其它季节不常见.另外,一旦近地层湿度大到可以形成雾,在冬季会使大浓度的污染物附着在上面,对人体健康构成很大的威胁.     

青藏高原拉萨地块早白垩纪火山岩古地磁结果及其构造意义

对青藏高原拉萨地块早白垩纪火山岩15个采点的古地磁测定,揭示了一组高温特征剩磁分量.实验结果表明采样剖面获得的早白垩统卧荣沟组的古地磁结果全部为正极性,显示与早白垩纪正极性超静带的极性特征相似.对岩石的显微镜观察表明岩石未受后期热液化学交代作用和风化作用,这表明所获得的高温分量很可能代表岩石形成时的原生剩磁.其特征剩磁方向为:偏角D=18.4°,倾角I=26.5°,α95=8.6°;相应的极位置为:经度ψp=220.3°E,纬度λp=66.4°N,dp=9.3°,dm=6.9°,古纬度plat=14.0°.通过对比拉萨地块以北诸地块早白垩纪古地磁结果,认为拉萨地块在早白垩纪已与芜塘地块碰撞拼合在一起,而自早白垩纪以来相对欧亚大陆发生了1500±600km的构造缩短.结合拉萨地块已有的晚白垩纪和古新纪古地磁数据,认为欧亚大陆的最南缘(拉萨地块)在印度/欧亚大陆发生碰撞前自早白垩纪一始新纪一直处于北纬12.8°～14°N低纬度位置,并未发生明显的纬向运动.     

生态空间理论及其在生物入侵研究中的应用

生态空间理论（theoryofspat ialecology）是对生态系统空间关系进行研究的一种理论，主要包括尺度、空间格局和镶嵌动态等。模型是研究空间关系的重要手段，其中莱文斯（Levins）模型、细胞自动机（cel lularautomata）模型和反应-扩散（React ion Di f fusion）模型是 3个基本的模型。尺度是生态学研究中的核心问题，对于不同的研究对象，应在相应的尺度上进行思考。空间异质性是不同尺度上的生态学过程的结果，同时它也影响各种生态学过程。随着人们对生物入侵的日益关注，空间生态学理论尤其是一些空间模型越来越多的应用于入侵和竞争的研究中。     

2000-2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析

土地利用/覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要问题,而海岸带则是该领域研究的热点区域。以三套土地利用/覆盖数据（MCD12Q1、CCI-LC和GlobeLand30）为基础,采用基于一致性分析和模糊集合理论的数据融合方法,获取2000年和2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖分类信息,进而分析土地利用/覆盖变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明：十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化方式主要以耕地萎缩和林地扩张为主,其次是湿地扩张,再次是草地和裸地萎缩,最后是灌木地和人造地表扩张;土地利用/覆盖类型之间的相互转换面积较小,仅占研究区总面积的4.22%,其中分布面积占优势的变化类型为耕地–林地–草地相互转换、灌木地–裸地相互转换、林地转为湿地以及林地转为灌木地等。地形因素、气候分异等自然驱动力深刻影响着土地利用/覆盖变化的宏观格局,而人口压力增大、经济高速发展、政策的颁布与实施等人文驱动力则是推动十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化的主要原因。     

An analytical study on groundwater flow in drainage basins with horizontal wells

Analytical studies on release/capture zones are often limited to a uniform background groundwater flow. In fact, for basin-scale problems, the undulating water table would lead to the development of hierarchically nested flow systems, which are more complex than a uniform flow. Under the premise that the water table is a replica of undulating topography and hardly influenced by wells, an analytical solution of hydraulic head is derived for a two-dimensional cross section of a drainage basin with horizontal injection/pumping wells. Based on the analytical solution, distributions of hydraulic head, stagnation points and flow systems (including release/capture zones) are explored. The superposition of injection/pumping wells onto the background flow field leads to the development of new internal stagnation points and new flow systems (including release/capture zones). Generally speaking, the existence of n injection/pumping wells would result in up to n new internal stagnation points and up to 2n new flow systems (including release/capture zones). The analytical study presented, which integrates traditional well hydraulics with the theory of regional groundwater flow, is useful in understanding basin-scale groundwater flow influenced by human activities.     

Temporal variation of over‐bank flooding of Wei River and its impact on a riparian wetland in Xi'an,China

Over‐bank flooding is one of the driving forces controlling ecological integrity of riparian wetlands. Indentifying natural over‐bank flooding regime and its temporal variations is crucial for developing conservation and restoration plans and making water resources management policies for these ecosystems. Along the midstream of the Wei River in Xi'an, China lies the Jingwei riparian wetland, which was well preserved until the 1970s. Based on historical record of hydrological and morphological data of the Wei River from 1951 to 2000, we analysed temporal variations of over‐bank flooding frequency, duration, and timing in this paper. The natural annual over‐bank flooding regime was identified as having an occurrence frequency of 2·2 times a year and average duration of 5·3 days; these flooding events typically occur between June and September with occasional occurrence in late spring and late autumn. Over‐bank flooding occurrence frequency and duration decreased significantly during the 1990s, seasonal events of over‐bank floods were changed through reduced flooding frequency during summer and disappearing flooding events in late spring and late autumn. Further investigations showed that reduced discharge in the Wei River was the principal cause for these changes in over‐bank flooding dynamics. Our analysis also showed that decreased discharge of the Wei River during the 1990s was attributed near equally to disturbances from human activities and decreased regional precipitation. Results from this study may help reestablish natural over‐bank flooding dynamics in order to ensure successful restoration of Jingwei riparian wetland. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多沙河流平面二维泥沙数学模型研究

针对冲积河流河床演变速度快、边界调整幅度大的特点,采用积分方法数值求解水流泥沙基本方程,建立了适合于多沙河流泥沙及河床演变规律的二维数学模型,在数值方法方面考虑了物质守恒性及对多变边界的适应性,采用了比较简单的动边界处理模式。通过工程实例的计算验证,证实了模型所采用的基本方法是合理的,模型有较强的河床边界适应能力,可用以解决有关多沙河流河床演变预测及浑水洪水预报的有关问题。