气候变化对寒区水循环的影响研究进展

随着全球气候变暖,气候的变异性变得越来越极端,极端天气事件的频率和强度也在不断地上升.气候变化改变了水文循环,其变化趋势对世界水资源的管理提出了严峻的考验.气候变化对寒区水循环的影响包括对降水、蒸散发、径流、降雪与积雪面积、冰川和冻土等方面的影响: 近百年来,全球降水在波动中略有增加;在北半球水面蒸发量呈逐步减少的趋势,径流量及其时空分布发生了巨大变化;全球以积雪形式的降水越来越少,且积雪面积越来越小; 冰川出现加速退缩的现象.随着全球变暖,多年冻土融化,导致活动层厚度有明显增大趋势.所有现存的模型都表明了一个更暖的未来世界.为降低地球各圈层系统对气候变化的脆弱性,需要控制温室气体的排放,建立更精确的气候预测模型,提高水资源管理者的技术水平等手段来提高系统的适应能力,以解决人类的水资源需求问题.     

Mini SAR遥感系统测图

Mini SAR遥感系统,用微小型SAR做传感器,通过小型飞机或无人机为遥感平台获取地物信息,但载机平台在空中易受气流影响而偏离预设航线产生运动误差。文中首先分析载机平台运动特点,介绍系统中IMU/GPS组合导航数据预处理过程,论述载机平台转动误差、速度误差对SAR成像距离模型的影响。MiniSAR遥感系统获取的影像清晰,可用于制作正射影像图、基础地理信息库更新、灾害监测应急等领域,但不足之处在于影像中某些金属目标出现方位散焦现象。     

近55年淮河上中游流域气候要素多时间尺度演变特征及关联性分析

选取1960~2014年淮河上中游流域19个气象站点的月降水量、气温和日照时数等数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall、Morlet小波和相关系数法,对流域年和四季降水、气温和日照时数的变化趋势、多时间尺度演变特征以及相关性进行了研究。结果表明：① 降水在年和四季线性变化趋势不显著;气温除夏季不显著外,年和春、秋、冬季变暖趋势显著;日照时数除春季不显著外,年和夏、秋、冬季节变短趋势显著;② 降水、气温、日照时数在年和四季分别表现出多个时间尺度的相对丰枯、冷暖和长短交替特征;第一主周期尺度及其相应的平均变化周期在年和四季有的较接近有的相差较大,第一主要平均周期介于2~10 a之间;③ 气温的复相关系数均小于降水和日照时数;除冬季气温复相关系数较小外,其他季节各要素均较大。降水-日照的偏相关系数绝对值在年和四季均最大。降水-日照时数、降水-气温大部分情况呈反相关系,冬季气温和日照时数在主周期尺度28 a下呈同相变化。     

海城地震地区地壳三维结构特征

用一种新的地震波速图象研究方法和计算程序，处理了辽宁省地震台网观测资料，反演得到海城地震地区及其周围地壳三维速度结构，再次证实海城震区东西两侧的地壳结构有明显差异，海城地震的震源位于一个北西走向的低速体上方     

中国外商直接投资的地域结构研究

改革开放以来,我国引进外资工作取得了较大进展。然而,外资地域分布的不平衡,成为导致区域经济发展水平差距拉大的一个重要原因。如何改善外资地域分布结构,成为各界关注的焦点之一。文中采用定量和定性相结合的方法,研究了中国外资地球分布的现状及特点,分析了外资地域分布的动态变化趋势,并在此基础上提出若干改善外资地域分布结构的举措。     

Numerical study for characteristic change of Asian summer monsoon circulation and its influence mechanism during the El Nino period

In this paper, the relation between Asian summer monsoon circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific is investigated by using a global spectral model. This model has nine layers in the vertical and the model variables are represented in the horizontal as truncated expansions of the surface spherical harmonics with rhomboidal truncation at wave number 15. The model involves comparatively complete physical pro-cesses and parameterizations with mountains.Using the above model, two experimental schemes are designed, namely control case and anomalous sea surface temperature case. The above two schemes are respectively integrated for forty days and the simulated results are ob-tained from the last 30-day averaged simulations.The simulations show that positive SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific weakens Indian mon-soon circulation, decreases precipitation in Indian sub-continent whereas it intensifies East Asian monsoon circula-tion and increases precipitation in East Asian area. All these results reflect the characteristics of Asian summer mon-soon during the El Nino period. In this paper, SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific have a direct in-fluence on the intensity and position of subtropical high via the wave train over Northern Hemisphere, which is simi-lar to that suggested by Nitta (1987) and the wave train over Southern Hemisphere has an influence on the intensity of Mascarene high and Australia high resulting in affecting cross equatorial flow. As a result, atmospheric interior heat sources and sinks are redistributed because of the change of cross equatorial flow. And the response of atmos-phere to the new heat source and sink has a significant influence on Asian summer monsoon.     

黔中茶店桥地下河流域不同水体硫酸盐浓度特征及来源识别

茶店桥地下河位于西南岩溶区,流域内"三水"转换迅速,地下水是当地的重要饮用水源。本文对流域内雨水、地表水、地下水中的SO_4~(2-)浓度进行了测试,利用氘(δD_(H_2O))、氧(δ~(18) O_(H_2O))同位素示踪地表水、地下水补给来源,用硫酸盐硫(δ~(34)S_(SO4))、氧(δ~(18) O_(SO4))同位素探讨了地表水、地下水中SO_4~(2-)的来源,并计算了地下河出口河水中不同SO_4~(2-)来源的贡献比例。结果表明:1不同水体中SO_4~(2-)浓度大小顺序为地表水地下水雨水,与邻近区域相比,茶店桥地下河流域雨水、地表水、地下水呈现富集SO_4~(2-)的特征。2地表水、地下水的主要补给来源为大气降水,硫酸不仅和HCO_3~-共同参与了流域内碳酸盐岩的溶解,也参与了雨水中含钙镁颗粒物的溶解。3地表水δ~(34)S_(SO4)、δ~(18) O_(SO4)值分别介于-12.98‰~-10.19‰和-0.54‰~+9.13‰之间,地下水δ~(34)S_(SO4)、δ~(18) O_(SO4)值分别介于-14.32‰~+16.58‰和+2.81‰~+14.35‰之间,SW02的SO_4~(2-)主要来源于大气降水,SW01、SW03、GW02、GW03、GW06主要来源于煤层,GW05主要来源于石膏,GW01、GW04为混合输入源。4地下河出口河水中大气降水带来的SO_4~(2-)贡献比例为13%,煤层硫化物氧化的贡献比例为40%,石膏溶解的贡献比例为47%。     

A modified inverse procedure for calibrating parameters in a land subsidence model and its field application in Shanghai,China

Land-subsidence prediction depends on an appropriate subsidence model and the calibration of its parameter values. A modified inverse procedure is developed and applied to calibrate five parameters in a compacting confined aquifer system using records of field data from vertical extensometers and corresponding hydrographs. The inverse procedure of COMPAC (InvCOMPAC) has been used in the past for calibrating vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquitards, nonrecoverable and recoverable skeletal specific storages of the aquitards, skeletal specific storage of the aquifers, and initial preconsolidation stress within the aquitards. InvCOMPAC is modified to increase robustness in this study. There are two main differences in the modified InvCOMPAC model (MInvCOMPAC). One is that field data are smoothed before diagram analysis to reduce local oscillation of data and remove abnormal data points. A robust locally weighted regression method is applied to smooth the field data. The other difference is that the Newton-Raphson method, with a variable scale factor, is used to conduct the computer-based inverse adjustment procedure. MInvCOMPAC is then applied to calibrate parameters in a land subsidence model of Shanghai, China. Five parameters of aquifers and aquitards at 15 multiple-extensometer sites are calibrated. Vertical deformation of sedimentary layers can be predicted by the one-dimensional COMPAC model with these calibrated parameters at extensometer sites. These calibrated parameters could also serve as good initial values for parameters of three-dimensional regional land subsidence models of Shanghai.