FPSO软刚臂单点系泊系统定量风险分析

针对FPSO软刚臂单点系泊系统出现过的系泊腿失效及背向工况风险事件,以渤海某16万吨级FPSO为例,采用数值模拟的方法,计算FPSO及单点系统在百年一遇海况下的载荷效应,通过统计学方法拟合效应的概率分布,完成定量风险分析。对于系泊腿旋转失效后的风险,使用故障假设(what-if)方法,依据失效后果判断其风险权重。计算结果表明,系泊腿结构在正常情况下受拉失效的概率很小;系泊腿纵摆失效后导致的结果比横摆失效更为严重,风险权重更大。背向工况下,船艏与YOKE的间距要明显小于顺向工况,在设计时增大二者间距可有效减小碰撞风险。     

黄河沙漠宽谷段水沙变化特征及驱动因素

根据定位观测、第一次全国水利普查、遥感影像解译的数据,利用MWP、双累计曲线、水土保持分析法、数学模拟等方法,分析了黄河上游水沙变化特征,评估了多元驱动因素对2000-2012年黄河下河沿-头道拐沙漠宽谷段水沙变化的贡献率。结果表明:与20世纪70年代以前的基准期相比,2000年以来径流量、输沙量同步减少,水沙关系也发生变化,单位径流量的输沙量明显减少;沙漠宽谷段径流量减幅沿程不断增加而输沙量减幅沿程变化不大,水沙年内分配较基准期发生倒置,来沙系数不断减小;灌区引水引沙、水土保持措施、水库拦沙、支流来水来沙、水库调蓄及河道冲淤是沙漠宽谷段水沙变化的主要影响因子;经济社会发展用水对沙漠宽谷段径流量减少的作用最大,贡献率为81%,其次是水库蓄泄量,占15%以上;水库拦沙对头道拐输沙量减少的贡献率最大,占41%,其次是支流水土保持措施,贡献率约占13%,入黄风沙减少的贡献率并不大,约为6%,而河道淤积量、灌区引沙量较基准期都是减少的,贡献率分别约为-41%和-8%;近10多年来降雨等自然因素对水沙变化的作用相对不大,起主要作用的是水库运用、水土保持、经济社会发展等人类活动因素。     

Automatic mapping of lunar landforms using DEM-derived geomorphometric parameters

Developing approaches to automate the analysis of the massive amounts of data sent back from the Moon will generate significant benefits for the field of lunar geomorphology. In this paper, we outline an automated method for mapping lunar landforms that is based on digital terrain analysis. An iterative self-organizing (ISO) cluster unsupervised classification enables the automatic mapping of landforms via a series of input raster bands that utilize six geomorphometric parameters. These parameters divide landforms into a number of spatially extended, topographically homogeneous segments that exhibit similar terrain attributes and neighborhood properties. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we apply it to three representative test sites on the Moon, automatically presenting our results as a thematic landform map. We also quantitatively evaluated this approach using a series of confusion matrices, achieving overall accuracies as high as 83.34% and Kappa coefficients (K) as high as 0.77. An immediate version of our algorithm can also be applied for automatically mapping large-scale lunar landforms and for the quantitative comparison of lunar surface morphologies.     

鄂尔多斯盆地东南部山西组泥岩封盖性能评价

为弥补鄂尔多斯盆地东南部盖层的研究空白,借鉴已有研究成果与盖层基本特征,选取泥岩孔隙度、渗透率、厚度以及排替压力4个参数,结合灰色理论分析方法,对鄂尔多斯盆地东南部山西组泥岩盖层封盖性能进行了综合定量评价。结果表明:盆地东南部泥岩北东部较厚,整体呈从北向南减薄的趋势,南部孔隙度及渗透率均偏高;泥岩盖层排替压力较大,大于8 MPa的平面面积占70%以上;由灰色理论打分评价可知,山西组整体盖层封盖性能较好,封盖能力特强(Ⅰ类盖层)、封盖能力强(Ⅱ类盖层)的盖层分布区域广泛,Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类盖层主要发育于盆地北部、北东部,中部延长、延安、志丹等周边地区,盖层封盖性好,Ⅲ类盖层(封盖能力中等)、Ⅳ类盖层(封盖能力差)主要发育于南部。盖层发育较好的地区,经勘探开发与试气,单井日产量可达上万方,证明评价结果与勘探实践匹配。     

Combining AHP and genetic algorithms approaches to modify DRASTIC model to assess groundwater vulnerability: a case study from Jianghan Plain,China

Accurate identification of vulnerability areas is critical for groundwater resources protection and management. The present study employed the modified DRASTIC model to assess the groundwater vulnerability of Jianghan Plain, a major farming area in central China. DRASTICL model was developed by incorporating the land use factor to the original model. The ratings and weightings of the selected parameters were optimized by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and genetic algorithms (GAs) method, respectively. A combined AHP–GAs method was proposed to further develop this methodology. The unity-based normalization process was employed to categorize the vulnerability maps into four types, such as very high (>0.75), high (0.5–0.75), low (0.25–0.5), and very low (<0.25). The accuracy of vulnerability mapping was validated by Pearson’s correlation coefficient between vulnerability index and the nitrate concentration in groundwater and analysis of variance F statistic. The results revealed that the modified DRASTIC model had a large improvement over the conventional model. The correlation coefficient increased significantly from 41.07 to 75.31% after modification. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the depth to groundwater with 39.28% of mean effective weight was the most critical factor affecting the groundwater vulnerability. The developed vulnerability model proposed in this study could provide important objective information for groundwater and environmental management at local level and innovation for international researchers.     

Experimental study on the bidirectional inelastic deformation capacity of U‐shaped steel dampers for seismic isolated buildings

Hysteretic dampers are used to dissipate earthquake‐induced energy in base‐isolated structures by acquiring inelastic deformations, rendering their hysteretic behavior of vital importance. The present paper focuses on investigating the behavior of U‐shaped steel dampers under bidirectional loading; this is significantly different from their corresponding uniaxial behavior. Two main sets of loading tests on full‐scale specimens are conducted in this regard: (i) quasi‐static tests with simple histories and (ii) dynamic tests with realistic loading histories. Based on the results obtained in the quasi‐static tests, an interaction curve that accounts for the reduction of the cyclic deformation capacity is proposed. However, the fidelity of this relation must be assessed under loading conditions similar to those of a seismically isolated structure subjected to an earthquake, which represents the goal of the second set of tests. The results of the dynamic tests validate the proposed interaction curve for estimating the deformation capacity of U‐shaped steel dampers under bidirectional loading. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Modeling of Slug Tests with MODFLOW Using Equivalent Well Blocks

Slug tests are a widely used technique to estimate aquifer hydraulic parameters and the test data are generally interpreted with analytical solutions under various assumptions. However, these solutions are not convenient when slug tests are required to be analyzed in a three‐dimensional model for complex aquifer‐aquitard systems. In this study, equivalent well blocks (EWB) are proposed in numerical modeling of slug test data with MODFLOW. Multi‐well slug tests in partially penetrating wells with skin zones can be simulated. Accuracy of the numerical method is demonstrated by benchmarking with analytical solutions. The EWB method is applied in a case study on slug tests in aquitards in the Pearl River Delta, China.     

柯鲁克湖水化学特征分析

柯鲁克湖目前是柴达木盆地内唯一的淡水湖。2012年10月采集了柯鲁克湖不同方向的表层湖水,分析了其总溶解固体（TDS）、pH、硬度及化学成分,与入湖河流性质进行对比,探讨了湖水的物质来源及影响因素。柯鲁克湖湖水整体呈弱碱性,属于硬度较高的淡水,湖水类型为Cl^-·SO₄^2--Na⁺·Ca²⁺型或以O.A.阿列金分类为Cl NaⅢ型水。pH值的整体变化较小,TDS及硬度在东西采样方向上变化显著。因降雨量小,湖水成分主要来源于地表河流及地下水输入的岩石风化产物。巴音河为主要入湖河流,河水性质不同于柯鲁克湖,属于HCO₃^--Ca²⁺型,造成两者差异的原因在于湖水发生强烈的蒸发-浓缩,湖水中的Ca²⁺和HCO₃^-以碳酸盐矿物的形式析出。     

基于CT三维重建与逆向工程技术的煤体数字模型的建立

为了建立能够表征煤体真实孔隙结构的数字模型,进而进行数值模拟研究,通过μCT225kVFCB高精度CT系统扫描得到了大柳塔煤矿长焰煤CT数据,可观测到的最小孔隙直径为1.94 μm。使用基于Matlab语言的三维重建程序结合逆向工程技术,提出了一种将煤体CT三维数据转换为CAD数字模型的方法。以Ansys建立的煤体有限元模型为例,对煤体瓦斯渗流进行了模拟,分析了煤体孔隙内的速度及压力分布规律,并计算了沿X、Y、Z方向的渗透系数。计算结果表明：在微观尺度下（< 100 μm）煤体渗透系数呈现各向异性,其受煤体结构的影响较明显。提出的基于CT三维重建结合逆向工程技术构建的煤体CAD数字模型不仅可进行有限元分析,同时也可以被EDEM等离散元分析软件所使用,拓宽了煤体CT三维数据的应用范围,丰富了煤体在微观尺度上的研究方法。     

西藏某水电站左岸坝肩边坡地震稳定性分析

地震作用下岩质高边坡的稳定性历来是边坡稳定性研究中的重点,难度比较大。总结了对地震边坡进行工程地质分析的方法,并结合西藏某拟建水电站所在区工程地质条件,对地震作用下该水电站的边坡的稳定性进行工程地质分析;建立数值模型,采用有限差分程序FLAC 3D对地震作用下该边坡的动力稳定性进行分析。由工程地质分析可知,该边坡在地震作用下整体处于稳定状态;拟静力法计算可知,地震对该边坡的稳定性有一定影响;通过地震动力时程分析可知,地震对边坡顶部和坡面附近的影响较大,因而这些地方危险较大;同时还分析了地震波频率、振幅对稳定性的影响以及断层对地震波传播的影响规律。