Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

The instantaneous total mortality rate(Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis,abundance and catch forecast,and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort(CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method,the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time,but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant,and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z,and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates(the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore,the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them,but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod(G adus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997,and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.     

Paleozoic post-collisional magmatism and high-temperature granulite-facies metamorphism coupling with lithospheric delamination of the East Kunlun Orogenic Belt,NW China

Lithosphere extension and upwelling of asthenosphere at post-collisional stage of an orogenic cycle generally induce diverse magmatism and/or associated high-temperature metamorphism. Nevertheless, the intimate coexistence of post-collisional magmatic activity and high-temperature metamorphism is rare.In this contribution, a lithological assemblage composing of diverse magmatic rocks deriving from distinct magma sources and coeval high-temperature metamorphism was identified in eastern Kunlun.Petrography, ages, mineral chemistry and whole-rock geochemistry demonstrated that those intimately coexistent diverse rocks were genetically related to post-collisional extension. The garnet-bearing mafic granulites in Jinshuikou area interior of the East Kunlun Orogenic Belt are mainly composed of garnet,orthopyroxene, and plagioclase, with peak metamorphic P–T conditions of ~ 701–756 ℃and 5.6–7.0 kbar,representing a granulite-facies metamorphism at 409.7 ± 1.7 Ma. The diverse contemporaneous magmatic rocks including hornblendites, gabbros and granites yield zircon U–Pb ages of 408.6 ± 2.5 Ma,413.4 ± 4.6 Ma, and 387–407 Ma, respectively. The hornblendites show N-MORB-like REE patterns with(La/Sm)Nvalues of 0.85–0.94. They have positive zircon εHf(t) values of 0.1–4.9 and whole-rock εNd(t) values of 3.9–4.7 but relatively high(⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_ivalues of 0.7081 to 0.7088. These features demonstrate that the hornblendites derived from a depleted asthenospheric mantle source with minor continental crustal materials in source. As for the gabbros, they exhibit arc-like elemental signatures, low zircon εHf(t) values(-4.3 to 2.5) and variable whole-rock εNd(t) values(-4.9 to 1.2) as well as high(⁸⁷Sr/86 Sr)ivalues(0.7068 to 0.7126), arguing for that they were originated from partial melting of heterogeneous lithospheric mantle anteriorly metasomatized by subducted-sediment released melts. Geochemistry of the granites defines their strongly peraluminous S-type signatures. Zircons from the granites yield a large range of εHf(t) values ranging from -30.8 to -5.1, while the whole-rock samples yield consistent(⁸⁷Sr/86 Sr)ivalues(0.7301 to 0.7342) and negative εNd(t) values(-10.1 to -12.4). These features indicate that the S-type granites could be generated by reworking of an ancient crust. Taken together, the penecontemporaneous magmatism and metamorphic event, demonstrated the early-middle Devonian transition from crustal thickening to extensional collapse. The post-collisional mantle-derived magmas serve as an essential driving force for the high-temperature granulite-facies metamorphism and anataxis of the crust associated with formation of S-type granite. This study not only constructs a more detail Proto-Tethys evolution process of the eastern Kunlun, but also sheds new light on better understanding the intimate relationship between magmatism and metamorphism during post-collisional extensional collapse.     

新疆外商直接投资与产业竞争力实证分析

在将整个经济体分为贸易部门和非贸易部门的基础上,通过建立计量模型,对新疆外商直接投资与产业竞争力之间的关系进行研究。结果表明:在有外商直接投资介入的贸易和非贸易两部门中,劳动报酬对两部门产业竞争力都有显著影响;产业结构演进仅对贸易部门产业竞争力有显著影响。建议在新疆经济发展过程中不仅要处理好劳动力工资待遇问题,而且要进一步扩大招商引资的规模并提高其利用效率。     

交通枢纽的空间演进与发展机理

长时间序列的交通枢纽空间分布格局的演进规律,一直是国内外交通地理学有待解决的问题。考察交通枢纽的长期演变规律,有助于把握交通枢纽的发展机理,为空间优化提供科学支撑。对秦汉时期以来中国交通枢纽分布格局的发展过程与空间特征进行系统解析,认为存在秦汉至南北朝、隋唐、宋朝至辽金时期、元明、清朝、民国至今等6个阶段。基于中国不同历史阶段交通枢纽的发展轨迹,总结了交通枢纽的基本形成条件和空间演变的一般过程,并对交通枢纽的生命周期进行了分析,在此基础上,深入研究了交通枢纽的基本发展模式,系统总结了中国交通枢纽空间布局的基本形态。相关研究既是对交通枢纽研究的理论完善,也是中国交通枢纽布局规划的理论基础。     

全国雷电灾害分析及雷灾经济损失预测

利用中国气象局雷电防护管理办公室编写的《1998-2008年全国雷电灾害汇编》资料,对1998-2008年全国雷电灾害进行了时间、空间、行业分布,经济损失,人员伤亡等方面的统计分析。结果表明:我国近11 a雷电灾害总体上呈增长趋势,每年的6-8月为雷灾的高发期。我国雷灾在地域上的分布主要集中在华南沿海和华东沿海地区。全国雷灾涉及行业最为严重的是电力业。近年来因雷电导致的建筑物损害、供电故障、火灾爆炸事故次数之间的整体比例为9∶5∶3,建筑物损害的事故发生最多,但火灾爆炸事故的经济损失最大。我国近年来所发生雷灾中因雷电致死致伤的人员比例为1∶1。利用上述统计分析结果,运用灰色关联法,预测2009-2012年间我国雷灾直接经济损失年均40591.53万元。     

大直径桩桩身压缩量和侧摩阻力综合分析

为了分析桩身压缩量和侧摩阻力对大直径桩承载力的影响,通过桩基现场静载试验,获得各级荷载作用下各土层交接面处的桩身应力应变值,计算出不同土层间每1m桩身段的压缩量和侧摩阻力值。实验结果表明：各土层间桩侧摩阻力实测最大值与勘察报告值之比差别较大,其中上部土层问的摩阻力比值较小,下部比值较大。上部土层桩侧摩阻力在各级荷载作用下变化不大,而下部土层桩侧摩阻力随荷载逐级递增。由于压缩量是反映材料受力变形的物理量,虽然下部土层的摩阻力实测值与报告值比值较大,但其桩身压缩量较小,因而可以判断侧摩阻力发挥程度并估算其极限值。大直径桩的承载力主要是由侧摩阻力来提供的,因此可以通过桩身压缩量和侧摩阻力的综合分析为石家庄乃至河北地区的大直径桩承载力确定提供有价值的参考。     

多普勒速度图暴雨判据和短时预报工具研究

对3824-C波段全相参多普勒天气雷达1995-1999年径向速度场资料中逆风区进行统计分析，认为近距离逆风区可成为暴雨短时预报的一个有参考价值的判据，并给出人机交互识别逆风区工具的设计和实现方法。     

航磁、重力异常及数据处理成果在清原地区金矿地质研究中的应用

通过航磁、重力异常及数据处理成果的分析和研究，阐述了清原地区深部构造、区域构造、花岗岩体及太古宙变质杂岩的展布特征与金矿成矿之间的关系，指出了该区金矿成矿的远景地段。     

中国大陆及其周边地区构造应力场的数值计算及其在地震活动性解释上的应用

利用粘弹性有限元模型,采用最新发表的边界位移速率结果,对中国大陆及其邻区的基本构造应力场进行了数值模拟．主要内容有:最大剪应力及其变化速率的模拟、最大剪应变及其变化速率的模拟和剪应变能密度及其变化速率的模拟．针对中国大陆及其邻区地震活动在时空分布上高度不均匀之特点,将中国大陆东西部地震能量释放进行归一化处理,即得到归一化的本底能量值,并将模拟结果与实际地震活动进行对比．结果表明,用上述模拟结果可以较好地解释中国大陆及其邻区地震分布的特点．      

2022年青海门源Ms 6. 9地震地表破裂带及发震构造研究

2022年1月8日01时45分，青海省海北州门源县发生了Ms 6. 9级强烈地震，震中位于青藏高原东北缘海原断裂带中西段的冷龙岭断裂附近。震后的野外现场考察表明，这次地震在海拔3500～4100 m的高原北部祁连山区形成了一系列由张裂隙、张剪裂隙、剪切裂隙、挤压鼓包和裂陷等多类型破裂雁行状组合而成的同震地表变形带，表现为左旋走滑运动性质，总长约27 km。破裂带呈NWW—SEE走向，可分为南北两支，北支沿冷龙岭断裂西段分布，南支沿托莱山断裂东端分布，与北支间隔3 km呈左阶雁行排列。根据破裂带的走向变化和阶区特征，可将破裂带分为三段：西段、中段和东段，与地表同震位移分布特征较为吻合。西段为破裂带的南支，呈N93°E走向，长约4. 5 km，最大左行水平位错约85 cm；中段为北支破裂带西侧部分，主要呈N102°E走向，长约7. 5 km，最大左行水平位错约3. 7 m；东段为北支破裂带东侧部分，走向呈N110～120°E走向，长约15 km，最大左行水平位错约3. 0 m。门源地震震级与地表破裂带分布规模和变形强度的对比，表明本次地震的震源深度较浅，可能远小于10 km深。这次门源地震的发震断裂为海原断裂带呈挤压弯曲部分的冷龙岭断裂，具有花状构造特征。由于本次地震余震向SE方向扩展，表明具有应力向东迁移趋势，因此，冷龙岭断裂东侧处在海原断裂带上1920年海原大地震与2022年门源地震之间地震空区的金强河、毛毛山和老虎山断裂未来强震危险性升高，需要重点关注。