A modified inverse procedure for calibrating parameters in a land subsidence model and its field application in Shanghai,China

Land-subsidence prediction depends on an appropriate subsidence model and the calibration of its parameter values. A modified inverse procedure is developed and applied to calibrate five parameters in a compacting confined aquifer system using records of field data from vertical extensometers and corresponding hydrographs. The inverse procedure of COMPAC (InvCOMPAC) has been used in the past for calibrating vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquitards, nonrecoverable and recoverable skeletal specific storages of the aquitards, skeletal specific storage of the aquifers, and initial preconsolidation stress within the aquitards. InvCOMPAC is modified to increase robustness in this study. There are two main differences in the modified InvCOMPAC model (MInvCOMPAC). One is that field data are smoothed before diagram analysis to reduce local oscillation of data and remove abnormal data points. A robust locally weighted regression method is applied to smooth the field data. The other difference is that the Newton-Raphson method, with a variable scale factor, is used to conduct the computer-based inverse adjustment procedure. MInvCOMPAC is then applied to calibrate parameters in a land subsidence model of Shanghai, China. Five parameters of aquifers and aquitards at 15 multiple-extensometer sites are calibrated. Vertical deformation of sedimentary layers can be predicted by the one-dimensional COMPAC model with these calibrated parameters at extensometer sites. These calibrated parameters could also serve as good initial values for parameters of three-dimensional regional land subsidence models of Shanghai.     

中国航空运输业与旅游业发展水平关系测度

近20 a来,中国航空运输业与旅游业均呈快速发展趋势,对两者关系的研究逐渐兴起。基于1985年以来中国航空旅客吞吐量和旅游人数的历史数据,采用面板VAR模型从全国和省域尺度定量分析了航空运输业与旅游业发展的关系。研究结果表明：中国航空运输业与旅游业的发展水平呈现出显著的时空相关性;在全国尺度上,两者发展呈现出长期均衡的关系,且航空运输业对旅游业发展的贡献率大于旅游业对航空运输业的贡献率;在省域尺度上,根据航空运输业与旅游业发展水平的相对关系,可将省份划分为高-高协调型、高-低磨合型、低-高磨合型、低-低协调型4种类型。     

Buckling Propagation in Marine Pipelines

The buckling propagation in marine pipelines is studied by means of the cylindrical shell model in this paper. Several parameters including geometrical parameter D/ T, L/ D, physical parameter E and σy are discussed. The computed results are compared with the available experimental data and other computed results, it is found that the present results are closer to the experimental results than other computed results.     

白沙河平原区地下水资源现状供需平衡分析

利用白沙河含水系统数值模拟模型和白沙河平原区需水预测模型的预测结果，对白沙河平原区水资源现状供需状况进行分析，指出：单纯依靠地下水供水时，缺水率达２０％以上，含水层系统有１／５的面积经常处于疏干状态．这一结果为更好地设计管理方案提供了依据。     

浮游植物密度和池水透明度对中国对虾增长速率的影响

1991年6月20日～9月11日,于大连市营城子镇东小磨对虾养殖场3号虾池采水样,固定后,检测浮游植物数量,同时测定透明度和对虾体长。实验结果见图1、图2,表1。结果表明,浮游植物密度、池水透明度和对虾体长增长速率三者之间有着密切的相互关系。     

Morphodynamic Characteristics and Medium-Term Simulation of the North—South Passage Under the Impact of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Navigation Channel Project

The morphological evolution characteristics of the North-South Passage area since the construction of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Navigation Channel Project(DNCP) are analyzed on the basis of the measured data. A twodimensional morphodynamics numerical model of the Yangtze Estuary is established to verify the morphological evolution of the North-South Passage under the influence of the DNCP and to predict the future evolution in the next 40 years. Data analysis shows that the North Passage has experienced rapid adjustment stages and adaptive stages after the construction of the DNCP. Slow erosion occurred along the main channel, and slow siltation could be observed in the area between the groins. The South Passage showed a state of upper section erosion and down section deposition. At present, the whole South Passage is in a slight erosion state. According to the numerical model, the eroding and silting speed of the North Passage will slow down in the future. The present state that erosion occurs in the main channel and siltation occurs between the groins will continue. The South Passage will still maintain upper section erosion and down section deposition in the future. Due to the main channel erosion of the North Passage and siltation of the South Passage, the sediment division ratio of the North Passage will increase in the future but still be smaller than 50%. After morphological evolution of 40 years, the direction of residual sediment transport caused by M2 and M4 tidal components in the North Passage has not changed, but the transport rate will decrease. It is considered that the morphological evolution of the North-South Passage could reach a relatively stable state after 40 years.     

A Study on Crack Detection with Modal Parameters of A Jacket Platform

Crack detection procedures by different modal parameters are analyzed for identitying a crack and its location and magnitude in a jacket plafform. The first ten natural frequencies and modal shapes of the jacket models are obtained by numerical experiments based on NASTRAN Code. A crack at different locations and of different magnitudes is imposed in the model at the underwater beams. Then, the modal evaluation parameters are calculated numerically, to illustrate the evaluation of modal parameter criteria used in jacket crack detection. The sensitivities of different modal parameters to different cracks are analyzed. A new technique is presented for predicting the approximate location of a breakage in the absence of the data of an intact model. This method can be used to detect a crack in underwater menbers by use of incomplete mode shapes of the top members of the jacket.     

悬浮沉积物对磷酸盐的吸附与释放及藻类对吸附磷的利用

本文用1987年12月采自平度县大泽山水库的水样和沉积物样品,实验研究了悬浮沉积物对磷酸盐的吸附与释放以及藻类对悬浮沉积物吸附磷的利用。实验证明,悬浮沉积物对PO_4—P的吸附相当迅速,24小时即趋于饱和;绝对吸附量随水中原有PO_4—P浓度和沉积物含量增加而增加,相对吸附量也随水中原有PO_4—P浓度的增加而增加,但随沉积物含量的增加而减少;悬浮沉积物的吸磷或释磷,取决于沉积物吸附的磷量与水中溶存PO_4—P浓度两者的相对关系,在吸附释放平衡条件下,二者的数量变化呈对数相关。藻类培养结果表明,悬浮沉积物吸附磷能被藻类直接利用。据此,作者提出应当用总活性磷,而不是溶解无机磷作为浅水型内陆水域有效磷的指标。     

中国科学院海洋研究所生态学研究中心成立

为适应海洋科学的发展和当前科技体制改革的需要,中国科学院海洋研究所“海洋生态学研究中心”于5月8日正式成立。 资源与环境是当前地球科学研究的两大课题。占全球面积71％强的海洋是地圈、水圈、生物圈的主体组分,在调节全球气候与提供可再生资源中起着举足轻重的作用。这种作用的机制,很大程度上就在于海洋的生态过程。因而,海洋生态学已成为90年代海洋