捕捞限额制度下主体行为的博弈分析

为从根本上解决我国渔业资源急剧衰退的问题,渔业捕捞限额制度的实施迫在眉睫;该制度的本质是对人和船进行管理,各主体不同策略的选择对其实施效果产生直接影响。文章从捕捞限额制度实施的监管层面出发,构建三方静态博弈模型,研究渔业生产者、渔业监管者和其他渔业生产者的博弈规律;提出应尽快构建监管体系并在实施初期放宽对政府疏于监管的惩罚,建立高额举报奖励机制,设立合理罚款额度等建议,以期为我国渔业捕捞限额制度的推进和现代渔业综合试验改革提供参考。     

FPSO软刚臂单点系泊系统定量风险分析

针对FPSO软刚臂单点系泊系统出现过的系泊腿失效及背向工况风险事件,以渤海某16万吨级FPSO为例,采用数值模拟的方法,计算FPSO及单点系统在百年一遇海况下的载荷效应,通过统计学方法拟合效应的概率分布,完成定量风险分析。对于系泊腿旋转失效后的风险,使用故障假设(what-if)方法,依据失效后果判断其风险权重。计算结果表明,系泊腿结构在正常情况下受拉失效的概率很小;系泊腿纵摆失效后导致的结果比横摆失效更为严重,风险权重更大。背向工况下,船艏与YOKE的间距要明显小于顺向工况,在设计时增大二者间距可有效减小碰撞风险。     

黄河沙漠宽谷段水沙变化特征及驱动因素

根据定位观测、第一次全国水利普查、遥感影像解译的数据,利用MWP、双累计曲线、水土保持分析法、数学模拟等方法,分析了黄河上游水沙变化特征,评估了多元驱动因素对2000-2012年黄河下河沿-头道拐沙漠宽谷段水沙变化的贡献率。结果表明:与20世纪70年代以前的基准期相比,2000年以来径流量、输沙量同步减少,水沙关系也发生变化,单位径流量的输沙量明显减少;沙漠宽谷段径流量减幅沿程不断增加而输沙量减幅沿程变化不大,水沙年内分配较基准期发生倒置,来沙系数不断减小;灌区引水引沙、水土保持措施、水库拦沙、支流来水来沙、水库调蓄及河道冲淤是沙漠宽谷段水沙变化的主要影响因子;经济社会发展用水对沙漠宽谷段径流量减少的作用最大,贡献率为81%,其次是水库蓄泄量,占15%以上;水库拦沙对头道拐输沙量减少的贡献率最大,占41%,其次是支流水土保持措施,贡献率约占13%,入黄风沙减少的贡献率并不大,约为6%,而河道淤积量、灌区引沙量较基准期都是减少的,贡献率分别约为-41%和-8%;近10多年来降雨等自然因素对水沙变化的作用相对不大,起主要作用的是水库运用、水土保持、经济社会发展等人类活动因素。     

Automatic mapping of lunar landforms using DEM-derived geomorphometric parameters

Developing approaches to automate the analysis of the massive amounts of data sent back from the Moon will generate significant benefits for the field of lunar geomorphology. In this paper, we outline an automated method for mapping lunar landforms that is based on digital terrain analysis. An iterative self-organizing (ISO) cluster unsupervised classification enables the automatic mapping of landforms via a series of input raster bands that utilize six geomorphometric parameters. These parameters divide landforms into a number of spatially extended, topographically homogeneous segments that exhibit similar terrain attributes and neighborhood properties. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we apply it to three representative test sites on the Moon, automatically presenting our results as a thematic landform map. We also quantitatively evaluated this approach using a series of confusion matrices, achieving overall accuracies as high as 83.34% and Kappa coefficients (K) as high as 0.77. An immediate version of our algorithm can also be applied for automatically mapping large-scale lunar landforms and for the quantitative comparison of lunar surface morphologies.     

鄂尔多斯盆地东南部山西组泥岩封盖性能评价

为弥补鄂尔多斯盆地东南部盖层的研究空白,借鉴已有研究成果与盖层基本特征,选取泥岩孔隙度、渗透率、厚度以及排替压力4个参数,结合灰色理论分析方法,对鄂尔多斯盆地东南部山西组泥岩盖层封盖性能进行了综合定量评价。结果表明:盆地东南部泥岩北东部较厚,整体呈从北向南减薄的趋势,南部孔隙度及渗透率均偏高;泥岩盖层排替压力较大,大于8 MPa的平面面积占70%以上;由灰色理论打分评价可知,山西组整体盖层封盖性能较好,封盖能力特强(Ⅰ类盖层)、封盖能力强(Ⅱ类盖层)的盖层分布区域广泛,Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类盖层主要发育于盆地北部、北东部,中部延长、延安、志丹等周边地区,盖层封盖性好,Ⅲ类盖层(封盖能力中等)、Ⅳ类盖层(封盖能力差)主要发育于南部。盖层发育较好的地区,经勘探开发与试气,单井日产量可达上万方,证明评价结果与勘探实践匹配。     

Combining AHP and genetic algorithms approaches to modify DRASTIC model to assess groundwater vulnerability: a case study from Jianghan Plain,China

Accurate identification of vulnerability areas is critical for groundwater resources protection and management. The present study employed the modified DRASTIC model to assess the groundwater vulnerability of Jianghan Plain, a major farming area in central China. DRASTICL model was developed by incorporating the land use factor to the original model. The ratings and weightings of the selected parameters were optimized by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and genetic algorithms (GAs) method, respectively. A combined AHP–GAs method was proposed to further develop this methodology. The unity-based normalization process was employed to categorize the vulnerability maps into four types, such as very high (>0.75), high (0.5–0.75), low (0.25–0.5), and very low (<0.25). The accuracy of vulnerability mapping was validated by Pearson’s correlation coefficient between vulnerability index and the nitrate concentration in groundwater and analysis of variance F statistic. The results revealed that the modified DRASTIC model had a large improvement over the conventional model. The correlation coefficient increased significantly from 41.07 to 75.31% after modification. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the depth to groundwater with 39.28% of mean effective weight was the most critical factor affecting the groundwater vulnerability. The developed vulnerability model proposed in this study could provide important objective information for groundwater and environmental management at local level and innovation for international researchers.     

Experimental study on the bidirectional inelastic deformation capacity of U‐shaped steel dampers for seismic isolated buildings

Hysteretic dampers are used to dissipate earthquake‐induced energy in base‐isolated structures by acquiring inelastic deformations, rendering their hysteretic behavior of vital importance. The present paper focuses on investigating the behavior of U‐shaped steel dampers under bidirectional loading; this is significantly different from their corresponding uniaxial behavior. Two main sets of loading tests on full‐scale specimens are conducted in this regard: (i) quasi‐static tests with simple histories and (ii) dynamic tests with realistic loading histories. Based on the results obtained in the quasi‐static tests, an interaction curve that accounts for the reduction of the cyclic deformation capacity is proposed. However, the fidelity of this relation must be assessed under loading conditions similar to those of a seismically isolated structure subjected to an earthquake, which represents the goal of the second set of tests. The results of the dynamic tests validate the proposed interaction curve for estimating the deformation capacity of U‐shaped steel dampers under bidirectional loading. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Modeling of Slug Tests with MODFLOW Using Equivalent Well Blocks

Slug tests are a widely used technique to estimate aquifer hydraulic parameters and the test data are generally interpreted with analytical solutions under various assumptions. However, these solutions are not convenient when slug tests are required to be analyzed in a three‐dimensional model for complex aquifer‐aquitard systems. In this study, equivalent well blocks (EWB) are proposed in numerical modeling of slug test data with MODFLOW. Multi‐well slug tests in partially penetrating wells with skin zones can be simulated. Accuracy of the numerical method is demonstrated by benchmarking with analytical solutions. The EWB method is applied in a case study on slug tests in aquitards in the Pearl River Delta, China.     

紫坪铺水库地区震源位置和速度结构的联合反演

利用紫坪铺水库7个库区地震台站和10个区域地震台站记录的2004年8月至2008年5月的地震震相观测报告,通过震源位置和速度结构联合反演的方法,采用Simulps14软件对紫坪铺水库地区进行了小震精定位及速度结构反演。通过计算得到了紫坪铺水库地区记录到的几乎所有地震的精定位结果,以及0km、3km、6km和10km几个层面上较好的P波速度和波速比分布情况。精定位结果显示,紫坪铺水库地区的地震活动主要集中在虹口、玉堂镇和水磨3个地区。层析成像和波速比结果则较好地反映了紫坪铺地区受到水库渗水的影响范围及紫坪铺水库对汶川地震的影响。整体上来讲,紫坪铺水库的西南端水库渗水作用最大深度≤8km,汶川主震深度上没有明显的P波低速异常,也没有明显的波速比高值异常,说明水的渗透作用并没有达到汶川主震位置深度,即水对汶川地震的发生没有直接作用。     

柯鲁克湖水化学特征分析

柯鲁克湖目前是柴达木盆地内唯一的淡水湖。2012年10月采集了柯鲁克湖不同方向的表层湖水,分析了其总溶解固体（TDS）、pH、硬度及化学成分,与入湖河流性质进行对比,探讨了湖水的物质来源及影响因素。柯鲁克湖湖水整体呈弱碱性,属于硬度较高的淡水,湖水类型为Cl^-·SO₄^2--Na⁺·Ca²⁺型或以O.A.阿列金分类为Cl NaⅢ型水。pH值的整体变化较小,TDS及硬度在东西采样方向上变化显著。因降雨量小,湖水成分主要来源于地表河流及地下水输入的岩石风化产物。巴音河为主要入湖河流,河水性质不同于柯鲁克湖,属于HCO₃^--Ca²⁺型,造成两者差异的原因在于湖水发生强烈的蒸发-浓缩,湖水中的Ca²⁺和HCO₃^-以碳酸盐矿物的形式析出。