西藏班公湖-怒江缝合带西段去申拉组泥质硅质岩的发现及其地质意义

首次在班公湖-怒江缝合带西段去申拉组中发现了泥质硅质岩,呈2个层位产出。为探讨泥质硅质岩的沉积环境、成因及与班-怒特提斯洋西段构造演化的关系,进行岩石学和地球化学分析,结果显示,第一层位泥质硅质岩Al_2O_3/(Al_2O_3+Fe_2O_3)、Ce/Ce~?、(La/Ce)_N、V/(Ni+V)、Ce/La、Ce_(anom)、Eu_(anom)平均值分别为0.60、0.80、1.24、0.72、1.84、-0.08、0.01,第二层位泥质硅质岩相应比值平均值分别为0.65、0.83、1.16、0.77、1.97、-0.07、0.02。结合泥质硅质岩的Fe_2O_3/TiO2-Al_2O_3/(Al_2O_3+Fe_2O_3)、(La/Ce)N-Al_2O_3/(Al_2O_3+Fe_2O_3)、Hf/3-Th-Ta关系图解,表明第一、二层位泥质硅质岩形成于活动大陆边缘,沉积时水-岩界面为水体分层不强烈的厌氧环境。U-Th、Zn-Ni-Co、La-Ce、La/Yb-REE关系图解和稀土元素特征指示了第一、二层位泥质硅质岩为热水成因,热水活动与玄武岩岩浆活动有关,第二层位泥质硅质岩沉积时热水活动更强烈。去申拉组泥质硅质岩的岩石学、地球化学特征表明,狮泉河地区班-怒特提斯洋至少在早白垩世仍具有一定规模的洋盆,其闭合时间应晚于约109Ma,进一步限定了洋盆的闭合时间。     

关于中国煤层瓦斯区域分布的几点认识

据１９９４￣１９９６年连续３年的统计,全国煤矿瓦斯灾害伤亡人数占煤矿伤亡总人数的４０％以上,瓦斯涌出规律、瓦斯涌出量预测、瓦斯突出预测仍是煤矿安全技术的难题,在加强对瓦斯灾害综合治理的同时,把瓦斯作为煤层气资源积极进行开发利用,是当前的研究方向,瓦斯区域分布规律研究可以概括为建立在煤层瓦斯生成条件、保存条件基础上的高斯赋存量,高瓦斯涌出量,低瓦斯赋存量,低瓦斯涌出量区域分布规律研究;建立在高瓦斯赋     

长江口特大洪水浑浊带悬沙粒度分布特征

2020年长江流域发生了历史第二大洪水,大通站洪峰流量达到84 500 m3/s。本文基于2020年7月长江口特大洪水期间最大浑浊带多站位的水沙观测数据,重点分析了悬沙粒度组分的时空分布特征,并与常态水文条件下的粒度数据进行对比。结果表明：（1）最大浑浊带悬沙垂向平均中值粒径为10.4μm,变化范围为6～27μm,以黏性细颗粒泥沙为主;其中核心区南槽、北槽及北港的中值粒径分别为8.4μm、7.6μm和8.5μm,过渡区分别为7.2μm、16.4μm和14.5μm。（2）悬沙中值粒径垂向分布受不同组分影响,核心区底层中值粒径为8.8～9.6μm;底层黏土含量在28%～31%之间,粉砂含量在61%～64%之间,中值粒径主要受黏土及粉砂组分影响;过渡区北港和北槽垂向平均砂组分高达19%,南槽砂组分平均仅占5%,中值粒径主要受砂组分影响。（3）对比2013年洪季浑浊带数据,2020年粒径整体增大5.4μm,核心区黏土含量相较2013年减少12.7%,砂增加6.3%;过渡区北槽与北港平均粒径增大10μm。     

中国陆相油页岩含油率与总有机碳的响应机理

为了建立稳定可靠的利用油页岩总有机碳预测含油率的模型,揭示中国陆相不同成因类型油页岩含油率与总有机碳的内在关系极其重要。通过不同类型盆地油页岩钻井取心测试的关键参数,结合沉积学、有机地球化学、热模拟等学科技术,探讨油页岩含油率与总有机碳的响应机理。结果表明：不同盆地类型与沉积背景下发育的油页岩含油率与总有机碳质量分数均呈现良好的正相关性（R²=0.81~0.97）;中国陆相油页岩的成因类型进一步划分为5种类型,制约着含油率与总有机碳的内在关系;油页岩的升温加热模拟呈现3个失重阶段（温度<150、300~550、600~750℃）,明确了含油率与总有机碳参数的物理意义;相同类型盆地与沉积背景下形成的油页岩具有相近的母质生源组合,从而具有大致相当的再生烃效率。中国陆相油页岩成因类型的细划、含油率与总有机碳物理意义的明确、油页岩再生烃能力的分析,有助于理解中国陆相油页岩含油率与总有机碳的内在响应关系。     

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地质模型约束下的地震储层预测技术及其在梨树断陷中的应用

在钻测井约束下,结合梨树断陷有关探井资料和区域性沉积相研究,综合运用调谐频率加强法高分辨率处理技术和基于地震资料的时频分析技术、地震相技术、多属性分析技术及基于层序框架下的地震资料解释技术等,采取拟声波曲线重构地震反演技术和基于调谐频率加强法的高分辨率反演方法等,研究目的层岩性、物性和含油气性。同时,结合基于地震属性分析的人工智能技术的储层物性预测方法,预测砂体的空间分布和几何形态,落实隐蔽圈闭,完成了滚动勘探和开发2个阶段不同井区有利砂体分布规律评价及预测工作。     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

山东省文登市生态足迹评价

以山东省文登市2005年统计年鉴数据为依据,对其生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算。结果显示:2005年文登市人均生态足迹为4.554 5hm2,人均生态承载力为0.626 9 hm2,人均生态足迹赤字为3.927 6 hm2。反映出该市的生产、生活强度超过了生态系统的承载能力,生态系统处于过度开发利用状态。     

Canadian gravimetric geoid model 2010

A new gravimetric geoid model, Canadian Gravimetric Geoid 2010 (CGG2010), has been developed to upgrade the previous geoid model CGG2005. CGG2010 represents the separation between the reference ellipsoid of GRS80 and the Earth’s equipotential surface of $W_0=62{,}636{,}855.69~\mathrm{m}^2\mathrm{s}^{-2}$ W 0 = 62 , 636 , 855.69 m 2 s ? 2 . The Stokes–Helmert method has been re-formulated for the determination of CGG2010 by a new Stokes kernel modification. It reduces the effect of the systematic error in the Canadian terrestrial gravity data on the geoid to the level below 2 cm from about 20 cm using other existing modification techniques, and renders a smooth spectral combination of the satellite and terrestrial gravity data. The long wavelength components of CGG2010 include the GOCE contribution contained in a combined GRACE and GOCE geopotential model: GOCO01S, which ranges from $-20.1$ ? 20.1 to 16.7 cm with an RMS of 2.9 cm. Improvement has been also achieved through the refinement of geoid modelling procedure and the use of new data. (1) The downward continuation effect has been accounted accurately ranging from $-22.1$ ? 22.1 to 16.5 cm with an RMS of 0.9 cm. (2) The geoid residual from the Stokes integral is reduced to 4 cm in RMS by the use of an ultra-high degree spherical harmonic representation of global elevation model for deriving the reference Helmert field in conjunction with a derived global geopotential model. (3) The Canadian gravimetric geoid model is published for the first time with associated error estimates. In addition, CGG2010 includes the new marine gravity data, ArcGP gravity grids, and the new Canadian Digital Elevation Data (CDED) 1:50K. CGG2010 is compared to GPS-levelling data in Canada. The standard deviations are estimated to vary from 2 to 10 cm with the largest error in the mountainous areas of western Canada. We demonstrate its improvement over the previous models CGG2005 and EGM2008.     

西藏班公湖-怒江缝合带西段野马去申拉组富Nb火山岩的发现及其指示意义

以班公湖-怒江缝合带西段的去申拉组玄武岩和安山岩为研究对象,进行了岩石锆石测年和地球化学研究。测年结果显示,安山岩形成于108.5±1.5Ma,属于早白垩世晚期。岩石地球化学特征表明,野马去申拉组玄武岩Nb含量为10.5×10-6～11.1×10~(-6),Al_2O_3含量为17.63%～17.96%(平均值17.74%),属于富Nb高铝玄武岩,为中钾钙碱性系列;安山岩属于高钾钙碱性系列岩石。野马火山岩轻、重稀土元素分异明显,其中玄武岩稀土元素总量为119.20×10~(-6)～120.49×10~(-6),(La/Yb)_N值为5.17～5.53;安山岩稀土元素总量为179.97×10~(-6)～184.75×10~(-6),(La/Yb)_N值为13.83～15.12;二者在微量元素上表现出不同程度的富集轻稀土元素和大离子亲石元素,Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素相对亏损,具低Cr、Ni,高Sr、Nb、Zr含量,发育岛弧火山岩相关特征。其岩浆源区受俯冲流体的影响较大,后经历了不同程度的铁镁矿物的结晶分离作用。综合分析认为,野马去申拉组火山岩可能形成于弧后盆地构造环境下,是班公湖-怒江特提斯洋岩石圈南向俯冲过程中板片断离导致软流圈地幔上涌,诱发弧后拉张背景下的直接岩浆响应。