雷达资料同化对一次浙江初春罕见飑线过程数值模拟的影响分析

以2018年3月4日影响浙江的初春罕见飑线过程为例,利用WRF模式与GSI-3DVar同化系统开展了雷达资料同化对重大强对流天气的影响研究,分析了雷达资料同化对此次飑线过程的模拟改进作用和可能影响过程,对比了雷达反射率因子和雷达径向速度的同化效果,探讨了不同数量和位置的雷达资料同化对模拟效果的影响。结果表明:雷达资料(尤其是反射率因子)同化有效改善了飑线边界层特征的模拟,从而改进了模式对飑线过程中组合反射率因子、降水、大风等发展演变的模拟效果。雷达反射率因子同化通过直接调整水凝物质含量,修正风暴中降水模拟及由此引起的蒸发冷却,形成更接近实况的强冷池,进而产生了比雷达径向速度同化更大的正贡献。相对于同化非关键区域的雷达资料,同化飑线过程上游关键区域的雷达观测所包含的重要中小尺度信息,对飑线过程模拟效果提升更为重要。     

人工增雨防雹火箭弹道跟踪系统的研制及初步试验

由于受到高空风场的影响,人工增雨防雹火箭真实的弹道轨迹和射程与理论弹道值具有不一致性。为增强实施增雨防雹作业的科学性、精准性及其作业效果评估准确性,研制了一套人工增雨防雹火箭播撒作业跟踪系统。该系统分为火箭定位系统和数据传输系统两部分,利用卫星定位模块加上数据传输电台模式将火箭飞行轨迹实时传输至地面。并开展了一次人工增雨防雹火箭弹道跟踪实弹发射试验,发射两发人工增雨防雹测试火箭,除初始阶段4～5 s卫星定位失锁而没有数据外,其余时间所有数据均接收完整。结合高空风场数据对人工增雨防雹测试火箭进行风偏修正后的实际弹道更接近于理论弹道,风偏修正意义明显,有利于增雨防雹火箭精准作业。     

中央气象台决策气象服务智能移动终端的设计与实现

中央气象台决策气象服务智能移动终端(简称为“决策服务App”)是在发展智慧气象的大背景下,针对桌面应用、网站等传统天气预报业务系统存在时效性、移动性不足的问题,利用最新的移动互联技术,面向决策服务领导和一线决策服务人员设计研发的手机应用程序。在研发过程中实现了基于WebGIS和OpenGL ES技术的渲染引擎、基于大数据分析技术的用户行为统计,以及高安全性等多项关键技术。在此基础上实现了包括基于精细化智能网格的城市天气预报、决策服务产品、实况监测及其统计查询,以及预警预报在内的主要功能。决策服务App在日常天气预报业务、国家重大会议与活动,以及特大灾害的气象保障服务中提升了中央气象台和各级台站的精细化分析和决策服务水平。     

世界各国静止气象卫星发展综述

首先阐述了美国、欧洲气象卫星组织(EUMETSAT)、日本静止气象卫星的发展历史,从自旋稳定到三轴稳定,从单一载荷到多载荷并行工作,新一代的静止气象卫星的时间、空间和光谱分辨率都大幅提高,然后重点介绍了我国静止气象卫星风云二号和风云四号,相比于自旋稳定的风云二号气象卫星,风云四号卫星的功能和性能实现了跨越式的发展,接着简单介绍了俄罗斯、印度和韩国等其他国家静止气象卫星的发展状况,最后总结了不同时期各国静止气象卫星的发展特点,这对我国后续静止气象卫星的规划和研制有重要参考意义。     

中国气象信息资源产权政策分析

气象信息资源产权是气象信息资源开放共享和气象信息产业发展研究中的重点。文中在明确气象信息资源产权内涵和产权政策主要内容的基础上,分析了产权归属、产权政策的现状和存在的主要问题,并对构建适合中国国情的气象信息资源产权保护政策和激励政策提出了建议。建议通过建立气象信息资源产权许可使用、监管使用制度,对增值产权保护实行有区别的产权归属制度,建立产权登记制度和产权交易的价值评估制度等途径,进一步健全气象信息资源产权保护政策;建立多元化的气象信息资源激励政策,包括建立气象信息资源所有权与持有权相分离的政策,通过多种形式确认持有权取得等,从而鼓励社会力量参与气象信息资源的使用和运营。     

Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis

An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871–2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951–2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951–2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871–2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.     

两种导线观测的电线积冰资料的对比分析

应用直径26.8和4 mm两种导线平行观测的电线积冰资料,对比分析两种观测资料中电线积冰直径、厚度、重量和标准厚度的差异,并对不同天气现象和气象条件下两种电线积冰观测资料的差异进行了讨论.结果表明:总体上,2011年1-5月全国大部分台站观测的两种导线电线积冰直径、厚度和标准厚度值差异不明显,重量差异较明显,且差值较大的站点主要分布在长江以南地区;分析不同天气现象和气象条件下两种观测资料的差异后发现,两种电线积冰直径和厚度值差异在雾凇和混合凇条件下较显著,而重量值差异在雨凇、风力0～3级和气温-5～0℃的条件下时相对最大.     

发动机燃烧室内壁材料热环境的气动热试验模拟技术研究

利用超声速矩形湍流导管和等离子电弧加热器模拟了发动机燃烧室内流和高超声速飞行器外壁面外流热环境,进行了平板表面冷壁热流测量和燃烧室内壁材料考核试验。结果表明:由于辐射换热的影响,在选取的两个典型来流条件下,发动机燃烧室内流热环境下的冷壁热流比外流热环境下的高出21%和40%,但是冷壁热流的增量基本相当,约为0.70~0.80MW/m²。随着冷壁热流的增加,辐射换热产生的热流增量的影响力会逐渐减小。材料考核时,相同配方的C/SiC复合材料在内流热环境下的表面温度高出约400℃,背面温度高出约90℃,这种差异对于发动机燃烧室内壁面材料考核至关重要,必须在材料考核试验中加以考虑。      

基于MonoRTM模型的微波辐射计反演方法研究

基于辐射传输模型MonoRTM计算天空亮温度,使用多元线性统计回归方法和BP神经网络方法分别对大气温度和水汽密度廓线进行了反演,检验并分析了两种方法的反演精度.结果表明,多元线性回归方法反演的温度偏差总体不大于6K,反演的水汽密度偏差小于4 g/m3;神经网络方法反演的温度偏差小于2K,反演的水汽密度误差总体不大于2 g/m3.与探空数据的对比表明,对于大气温度和水汽密度反演,BP神经网络方法的反演结果都要比多元线性回归方法的反演结果更接近探空资料值.     

Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use

Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.