基于动态极值理论和Copula函数的极端海平面高度预测建模

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升是一个潜在的重大风险,为防范气候灾害,应对极端气象海洋事件,需客观、定量地对未来极端海平面变化进行科学预测。为此,基于Copula函数和动态极值分析理论,综合考虑平均海平面变化(包括垂直陆地运动和基准的局地变化)与潮、涌、浪等其他气候变化的增水对极端海平面高度的影响,采用DREAM方法改进Bayes推断对动态极值模型的参数空间估计问题,提出一种新的模型对未来极端海平面高度变化进行预测,旨在改进传统模型存在的不确定性问题,并运用该模型对气候变化背景下厦门地区未来35年的海平面变化情景进行了模型应用和实验模拟。     

以港产城联动推动沿海工业园区发展探讨——以浙江嘉兴滨海新区为例

嘉兴滨海新区是国家战略"浙江海洋经济发展示范区"北翼的重要组成部分,拥有良好的港口岸线资源、优越的海河联运条件和广阔的经济腹地,特色产业集聚优势明显、城市框架基本成熟,是浙江省海洋经济发展极具潜力的区域之一。近年来嘉兴滨海新区发展迅速,但存在港口功能单一、产业与港口联动性不强、城市布局不适应港口和产业发展等问题。为探索沿海工业园区发展新模式、破解当前存在的问题,文章从港产城联动发展的内涵和机制出发,分析滨海新区推进港产城联动发展的优势条件,探讨提出推进港产城联动发展的思路设想,特色港口打造、临港产业发展、滨海新城建设等方面的路径和任务,以及相关保障机制。     

Climate–growth relationship stability of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea crassifolia</Emphasis> on an elevation gradient,Qilian Mountain,Northwest China

Climate affects Picea crassifolia growth and climate change will lead to changes in the climate–growth relationship (i.e., the “divergence” phenomenon). However, standardization methods can also change the understanding of such a relationship. We tested the stability of this relationship by considering several variables: 1) two periods (1952–1980 and 1981–2009), 2) three elevations (2700, 3000, and 3300 m), and 3) chronologies detrended using cubic splines with two different flexibilities. With increasing elevation, the climatic factor limiting the radial growth of Picea crassifolia shifted from precipitation to temperature. At the elevation of 2700 m, the relationship between radial growth and mean temperature of the previous December changed so that the more flexible spline had a greater precipitation signal. At the elevation of 3000 m, positive correlation of radial growth with mean temperature and precipitation in September of the previous year became more significant. At the elevation of 3300 m, positive correlation between radial growth and precipitation of the current summer and the previous spring and autumn was no longer significant, whereas the positive correlation between radial growth and temperature of the current spring and summer strengthened. The detrending with the most flexible spline enhanced the precipitation signal at 2700 m, while that with the least flexible spline enhanced the temperature signal at 3300 m. All results indicated that the divergence phenomenon was affected by the climatic signals in the chronologies and that it was most dependent on the detrending method. This suggests it is necessary to select a suitable spline bootstrap for studies of growth divergence phenomena.     

Effect of stocking density on water quality and (Growth,Body Composition and Plasma Cortisol Content) performance of pen-reared rainbow trout (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus mykiss</Emphasis>)

The goal of the study was to examine the effect of stocking density on the water quality of culture area, as well as the growth, body composition and cortisol content of rainbow trout（Oncorhynchus mykiss）. Pen-reared trout were stocked in densities of 40, 60, 80 fish individuals m^-3(4.6, 6.6, 8.6 kg m^-3, SD1, SD2 and SD3 groups, respectively) for 300 days. Compared to the water from SD1 and SD2, that from SD3 exhibited significantly higher NH₄⁺-N content and COD（chemical-oxygen-demand）, and a significant reduction of dissolved oxygen in day 180(40.6 kg m^-3). Stocking density was significantly associated with body weight, standard length, VSI（viscerosomatic index）, CF（condition factor） and FC（food coefficient） in group SD3, particularly in day 240 and day 300(45 or 49.3 kg m^-3). Increased crude fat and decreased crude protein were displayed in high density group when the density reached to 36 kg m^-3. As a cumulative effect of density-related stress, VSI, CF, FC, moisture, and crude protein content varied over time in each density group（SD1, SD2, and SD3）. In summary, trout exhibited a better growth performance in low density(26.3 kg m^-3) than those reared in high densities(36 and 45 kg m^-3). The results indicate that rainbow trout（114.44 g ± 6.21 g, 19.69 cm ± 0.31 cm） initially stocked in 6.6 or 8.6 kg m^-3 should be lightened to less than 36 kg m^-3 after an intensive rearing for 240 days.     

Numerical study on inter-tidal transports in coastal seas

Inter-tidal(subtidal) transport processes in coastal sea depend on the residual motion, turbulent dispersion and relevant sources/sinks. In Feng et al.(2008), an updated Lagrangian inter-tidal transport equation, as well as new concept of Lagrangian in- ter-tidal concentration(LIC), has been proposed for a general nonlinear shallow water system. In the present study, the LIC is nu- merically applied for the first time to passive tracers in idealized settings and salinity in the Bohai Sea, China. Circulation and tracer motion in the three idealized model seas with different topography or coastline, termed as ‘flat-bottom', ‘stairs' and ‘cape' case, re- spectively, are simulated. The dependence of the LIC on initial tidal phase suggests that the nonlinearities in the stairs and cape cases are stronger than that in the flat-bottom case. Therefore, the ‘flat-bottom' case still meets the convectively weakly nonlinear condi- tion. For the Bohai Sea, the simulation results show that most parts of it still meet the weakly nonlinear condition. However, the de- pendence of the LIS(Lagrangian inter-tidal salinity) on initial tidal phase is significant around the southern headland of the Liaodong Peninsula and near the mouth of the Yellow River. The nonlinearity in the former region is mainly related to the complicated coast- lines, and that in the latter region is due to the presence of the estuarine salinity front.     

Growth performance of larval and juvenile manila clam (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis>) from divergently selected individuals of a full-sib family

In this study, the method of divergent selection was employed to test the larval and juvenile growth performance within a full-sib family of Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum. The 10% largest and 10% smallest clam individuals (on the basis of shell length) of a full-sib family were selected as parents for the fast and slow growing lines, respectively. The difference in shell length was significant among the three lines (fast, control, and slow) tested. The sequence of shell length were fast line > control line > slow line. The responses to selection, realized heritability, and genetic gain were 0.06%–0.81%, 0.04%–0.47% and 0.58%–18.89% in the fast direction, respectively; and were 0.14%–1.27%, 0.08%–0.73%, and 0.31%–49.03% in the slow direction, respectively. The results suggested that there was a large portion of additive genetic variance affecting the growth in the full-sib family. Selection in the fast direction within the full-sib family would greatly improve the growth of R. philippinarum.     

西藏白朗南部地区三叠纪地层沉积环境及物源

综合露头剖面、砂岩碎屑组分、地球化学、阴极发光等资料的研究,对西藏白朗地区南部三叠系沉积环境及物源开展了研究。该区三叠纪地层以灰黑色泥岩、浅灰白色石英砂岩、长石石英砂岩、灰色灰岩为主,沉积背景为拉轨岗日被动陆缘盆地的浅海-半深海环境。碎屑岩及其地球化学分析结果反映,物源总体来自克拉通内部。阴极发光结果表明,物源区石英主要为变质成因,次为火成岩成因。综合判定,研究区该套地层为下—中三叠统吕村组和上三叠统涅如组,物源区来自南部高喜马拉雅基底杂岩带。