Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.     

Assessing the effectiveness of imperviousness on stormwater runoff in micro urban catchments by model simulation

Imperviousness, considered as a critical indicator of the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, has gained increasing attention both in the research field and in practice. However, the effectiveness of imperviousness on rainfall–runoff dynamics has not been fully determined in a fine spatiotemporal scale. In this study, 69 drainage subareas <1 ha of a typical residential catchment in Beijing were selected to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of imperviousness, under a typical storm event with a 3‐year return period. Two metrics, total impervious area (TIA) and effective impervious area (EIA), were identified to represent the impervious characteristics of the selected subareas. Three runoff variables, total runoff depth (TR), peak runoff depth (PR), and lag time (LT), were simulated by using a validated hydrologic model. Regression analyses were developed to explore the quantitative associations between imperviousness and runoff variables. Then, three scenarios were established to test the applicability of the results in considering the different infiltration conditions. Our results showed that runoff variables are significantly related to imperviousness. However, the hydrologic performances of TIA and EIA were scale dependent. Specifically, with finer spatial scale and the condition heavy rainfall, TIA rather than EIA was found to contribute more to TR and PR. EIA tended to have a greater impact on LT and showed a negative relationship. Moreover, the relative significance of TIA and EIA was maintained under the different infiltration conditions. These findings may provide potential implications for landscape and drainage design in urban areas, which help to mitigate the runoff risk. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy partitioning over a semi‐arid shrubland in northern China

During the last decade, the widely distributed shrublands in northern China have shown significant signs of recovery from desertification, the result of widespread conservation practices. However, to support the current efforts in conservation, more knowledge is needed on surface energy partitioning and its biophysical controls. Using eddy‐covariance measurements made over a semi‐arid shrubland in northwest China in 2012, we examined how surface energy‐balance components vary on diurnal and seasonal scales, and how biophysical factors control bulk surface parameters and energy exchange. Sensible heat flux (H) exceeded latent heat flux (λE) during most of the year, resulting in an annual Bowen ratio (β, i.e. H/λE) of 2.0. λE exceeded H only in mid‐summer when frequent rainfall co‐occurred with the seasonal peak in leaf area index (LAI). Evapotranspiration reached a daily maximum of 3.3 mm day^?1, and summed to 283 mm yr^?1. The evaporative fraction (EF, i.e. λE/R_n), Priestley–Taylor coefficient (α), surface conductance (g_s) and decoupling coefficient (Ω) were all positively correlated with soil water content (SWC) and LAI. The direct enhancement of λE by high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) was buffered by a concurrent suppression of g_s. The g_s played a direct role in controlling EF and α by mediating the effects of LAI, SWC and VPD. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive plant responses to water scarcity in regulating ecosystem energy partitioning, and suggest an important role for revegetation in the reversal of desertification in semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of soil aggregate disintegration to the different content of organic carbon and its fractions during splash erosion

Aggregate disintegration is a critical process in soil splash erosion. However, the effect of soil organic carbon (SOC) and its fractions on soil aggregates disintegration is still not clear. In this study, five soils with similar clay contents and different contents of SOC have been used. The effects of slaking and mechanical striking on splash erosion were distinguished by using deionized water and 95% ethanol as raindrops. The simulated rainfall experiments were carried out in four heights (0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 m). The result indicated that the soil aggregate stability increased with the increases of SOC and light fraction organic carbon (LFOC). The relative slaking and the mechanical striking index increased with the decreases of SOC and LFOC. The reduction of macroaggregates in eroded soil gradually decreased with the increase of SOC and LFOC, especially in alcohol test. The amount of macroaggregates (>0.25 mm) in deionized water tests were significantly less than that in alcohol tests under the same rainfall heights. The contribution of slaking to splash erosion increased with the decrease of heavy fractions organic carbon. The contribution of mechanical striking was dominant when the rainfall kinetic energy increased to a range of threshold between 9 J m⁻² mm⁻¹ and 12 m⁻² mm⁻¹. This study could provide the scientific basis for deeply understanding the mechanism of soil aggregates disintegration and splash erosion.     

Late Quaternary climate and environmental change derived from glacial deposits in the Parlung Zangbo Valley,southeastern Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the late Quaternary climate and environmental characteristics of two tributary valleys (Xingmu and Depu Valleys) in the Parlung Zangbo Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) samples collected from moraines at the mouth of Xingmu Valley produce a wide age range from 13.9 ka to 76 ka. The ages measured from the lenticular sand are consistent with the relative geomorphic sequence of the landforms. Lenticular sand layers below the moraine were dated to 37.9 ka and 44.7 ka, indicating that fluvial processes were likely dominant in the valley during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. The outer moraine ridges at the valley mouth were formed during 13.9 ka and 26.5 ka, corresponding to MIS2. At Depu Valley, OSL samples from two sets of lateral and terminal moraines close to the modern glacier, provide ages from 1.4 ka to 29.2 ka. The paleosol layer widely developed during 2.6 cal ka BP and 8.7 cal ka BP in the study area, reflecting a relatively warm condition during the mid-Holocene.     

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.