Global sea level change and thermal contribution

The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.     

对秦岭造山带几个重大问题的认识

详细讨论了秦岭一大别造山带的几个重大问题，对它的发展阶段进行了新的划分，对其形成发表了新的观点：认为秦岭造山带、华北板块、扬子板块是中生代以来，在抽拉－逆冲岩片构造体制作用下形成的。对秦岭一大别造山带的表层构造特征以及它和深层构造的关系、花岗岩的成因类型、断层与界面的区分及成矿作用等都提出了和以往不同的认识。     

基于DDS技术的航空重力仪电容测微正弦激励源设计

介绍基于直接数字合成技术(DDS)研制的正弦激励源系统工作原理,运用matlab-simulink仿真模块仿真正弦激励源数据,结果表明,幅值稳定性可达到10-6~10-7,频率稳定性达到10-4,该系统能解决以往正弦电路中幅值稳定度和高频时频率稳定度差的问题,提高航空重力仪的观测精度。     

导航电子地图增量更新服务及关键技术研究

以移动通讯数据传输技术、网络技术和时态数据库技术为基础,构建了导航地理信息的变化发现、分析甄别、采集、加工、处理、存储和发布服务一体化的增量式更新服务模式、技术、软件、质检和标准体系,论述了多源数据融合、时空模型及空间关系的动态实时维护、多尺度增量式导航电子地图综合处理、路径规划和质检方法等关键性技术,实现了导航电子地图近实时更新服务。     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

Predicting TBM penetration rate in hard rock condition: A comparative study among six XGB-based metaheuristic techniques

A reliable and accurate prediction of the tunnel boring machine(TBM) performance can assist in minimizing the relevant risks of high capital costs and in scheduling tunneling projects.This research aims to develop six hybrid models of extreme gradient boosting(XGB) which are optimized by gray wolf optimization(GWO), particle swarm optimization(PSO), social spider optimization(SSO), sine cosine algorithm(SCA), multi verse optimization(MVO) and moth flame optimization(MFO), for estimation of the TBM penetration rate(PR).To do this, a comprehensive database with 1286 data samples was established where seven parameters including the rock quality designation, the rock mass rating, Brazilian tensile strength(BTS), rock mass weathering, the uniaxial compressive strength(UCS), revolution per minute and trust force per cutter(TFC), were set as inputs and TBM PR was selected as model output.Together with the mentioned six hybrid models, four single models i.e., artificial neural network, random forest regression, XGB and support vector regression were also built to estimate TBM PR for comparison purposes.These models were designed conducting several parametric studies on their most important parameters and then, their performance capacities were assessed through the use of root mean square error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute percentage error, and a10-index.Results of this study confirmed that the best predictive model of PR goes to the PSO-XGB technique with system error of(0.1453, and 0.1325), R~2 of(0.951, and 0.951), mean absolute percentage error(4.0689, and 3.8115), and a10-index of(0.9348, and 0.9496) in training and testing phases, respectively.The developed hybrid PSO-XGB can be introduced as an accurate, powerful and applicable technique in the field of TBM performance prediction.By conducting sensitivity analysis, it was found that UCS, BTS and TFC have the deepest impacts on the TBM PR.     

海洋纤维增强热塑性立管极限承载拉力预测方法

海洋新型纤维增强热塑性立管因其可盘卷、耐腐蚀、耐疲劳和轻质化等优点,在深水油气开发中应用前景十分广阔。热塑性立管具有复合材料的各向异性、受力耦合效应及复杂的本构关系,且承受浮体运动和复杂海洋环境载荷,其失效模式尚未明确。针对轴对称载荷作用下纤维增强热塑性立管极限承载力问题,进行热塑性管稳态热传导和热应力的理论推导,求解了稳态温度和应力分布,首次给出了在任意温度载荷作用下管体径向位移的解析解,并直接求解其径向、轴向、环向和剪切应力。采用各向同性层Von Mises和各向异性层最大应力（Max Stress）准则或Tsai-Hill准则判定热塑性管的失效,基于应力分布、失效准则和二分法计算了热塑性管的极限载荷。温度载荷、纤维铺设角度和径厚比对管道的应力分布影响显著。不同温度载荷会改变失效指数沿径向的变化趋势,增大轴向拉力将增大热塑性管的失效指数,选用不同的失效准则在管体失效判定上存在一定的差异。热塑性管温度越低、纤维铺设角越小及径厚比越大,管道对轴向拉伸载荷的承载能力越强。     

石英标准生长曲线在青藏高原东缘黄土光释光测年中的应用

石英标准生长曲线（SGC）法在黄土高分辨率光释光定年中有大幅节省测试时间的潜力,然而目前对该方法在不同时空尺度上的适用性尚存在争议。本文选取青藏高原东缘的典型黄土样品,通过系统地分析石英光释光生长曲线特征,检验SGC法和最小二乘法标准化生长曲线（LS-SGC）法在高原东缘黄土光释光定年中的适用性,结果显示：1）高原东缘黄土石英光释光信号以快组分为主,且同一地点不同样品、不同测片的生长曲线形态相似;2）当等效剂量（D_e）小于100 Gy时,不同地点样品石英生长曲线形态一致;大于100 Gy时生长曲线则具有不同的剂量响应特征;3）通过SGC法获得的D_e仅在0~100 Gy与实测值一致;LS-SGC法拟合的生长曲线结果更佳,并且LS-SGC法计算的D_e在100~200 Gy与实测D_e仍具有较好的一致性。研究结果有助于深入研究高原黄土光释光测年和风成沉积过程,同时也可为其他区域建立石英光释光标准生长曲线提供借鉴。

     

现代黄河三角洲YRD-1401孔MIS 5以来沉积层序及其古环境意义

近年来渤海地区晚更新世以来沉积环境演化和地层划分存在争议。本文对现代黄河三角洲东南海岸带YRD-1401孔岩芯（长81.00 m）沉积物进行综合研究,旨在建立该孔晚更新世以来地层的沉积相序列和时间标尺,为解决地层划分争议提供新的证据。根据AMS ¹⁴C和光释光测年结果,并考虑到YRD-1401孔底部地层光释光年代的不精确性,本文主要研究YRD-1401孔MIS 5以来的沉积演化史。综合分析YRD-1401孔沉积地层的岩性特征和底栖有孔虫组合变化,结合测年结果,该孔可划分为6个沉积单元（从下往上DU 6~DU 1）：最底部的DU 6（51.35~81.00 m）为受潮流影响的河流沉积（其形成时间有待进一步研究）,DU 5（37.64~51.35 m）为MIS 5潮坪-近岸浅海沉积,DU 4（30.71~37.64 m）为MIS 3早期的潮坪沉积,DU 3（23.50~30.71 m）为MIS 3晚期至全新世早期形成的河流沉积,DU 2（14.22~23.50 m）为全新世早期（约10 cal.ka B.P.）至1855年形成的滨岸沼泽-滨岸浅水-近岸浅海~前三角洲沉积-海洋改造层,DU 1（0~14.22 m）为1855年以来发育的现代黄河三角洲沉积。晚更新世以来该孔有3个海相层（自下而上分别是DU 5、DU 4和DU 2）,分别形成于MIS 5、MIS 3早期和全新世,表明晚更新世以来全球海平面变化是其主要控制因素。研究区MIS 4的沉积地层出现缺失。渤海沿岸地区多个钻孔地层的对比表明,区域性的差异构造沉降、沉积物供给和地层完整性等因素也是影响研究区晚更新世以来沉积地层发育的重要因素。

     

低序级断层结构导向坎尼属性边缘检测识别方法

常规的断层检测属性对地层产状相对较平、地震反射特征明显的低序断层有识别效果,在地层倾斜或者地层倾角变换剧烈的地方对低序级断层的识别效果很差。针对以上难点,在深入分析低序级断层地质特点和地震响应特征的基础上,对基于三维多级盲源分离与保构造滤波组合去噪的结构导向坎尼属性边缘检测低序级断层识别方法开展了研究,形成了一种有效的低序级断层识别方法,提高了低序级断层的识别能力。和相干属性对比来看,结构导向坎尼属性边缘检测结果噪声干扰更小,特别是在地层较陡或者地层产状波动较大(即地层倾角变化大)的地方,结构导向坎尼属性边缘检测结果更佳。所得结果与实钻井吻合效果好,解决了研究区的油水关系,多发现了5条低序级断层,新钻探井获得高产油流。