大同市一次大到暴雪天气诊断分析

本文针对2009年11月10日出现在大同地区的大到暴雪天气过程,从天气形势,物理量诊断及雷达产品等进行了综合分析后得出：此次降雪是在稳定的500hPa西风槽背景下,地面回流形势影响下造成的;高低层散度的垂直配置及高低空急流的耦合作用是此次过程的动力原因,充足的水汽条件和不稳定能量的积累是此次大到暴雪产生的根本因素。雷达产品分析表明：低空持续的偏东气流以及风向垂直切变的风场结构是这次暴雪产生的主要环境特征,暖平流和中层强西南急流有利于产生持续的降雪。     

改进的客观分析诊断图形软件

客观分析诊断图形系统是一款面向气象科研,得到广泛应用的二维气象绘图软件。根据气象科研工作和强对流天气分析研究的新需求,对该软件进行了改进,主要包括增加新数据接口、增加新算法、改进算法、简化操作等。改进的软件增加了静止卫星、新一代天气雷达和二进制格式点加工数据GRIdded Binary 2(GRIB2)等多种数据接口,...     

沪宁高速公路一次冬季浓雾过程的数值模拟分析

利用由多个美国研究部门及大学的共同参与研发的新一代中尺度预报模式和同化系统——WRF（Weather Research Forecast）模式,对2006年12月24—27日沪宁高速公路及其周边地区出现的一次罕见的持续性大雾过程进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,此次大雾过程属于较典型的平流雾,其生成和维持的主要原因是大气层结稳定、系统的下沉运动、充足的水汽;同时也有辐射作用,地面的大气长波辐射冷却是雾维持的重要因素。大范围下沉运动使中低层大气增温与地面辐射降温配合,形成深厚的逆温层,对大雾长时间维持起决定性作用。所以这是一次以平流雾为主伴随辐射雾的过程。27日14时后干冷空气南下才使大雾消散。      

暴雨模拟中积云对流参数化方案的对比试验

利用WRF中尺度数值预报模式,选用七种微物理方案及网格嵌套技术分别与Kain-Fritsch(new Eta)、Betts-Miller-Janjic、Grell-Devenyi（简称KF、BMJ、GD方案）三种积云对流参数方案匹配,对2007年6月1—2日湖南南部的暴雨过程进行了模拟试验。模拟结果表明：选用Lin等微物理方案和三种积云方案,采用20 km的格点分辨率,基本上可以模拟这场暴雨的范围,且采用网格嵌套技术的模拟结果优于未采用嵌套的模拟结果;其中KF方案模拟的强降水位置、强度与实况比较接近;BMJ方案模拟的强降水范围偏大、强度偏强,位置偏南,上述两种方案都不同程度地存在着虚假的暴雨中心;GD方案模拟的强降水范围、强度均偏小。     

The influence of tropical Pacific forcing on the Arctic Oscillation

The potential role of tropical Pacific forcing in driving the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is explored using both observational data and a simple general circulation model (SGCM). A lead–lag regression technique is first applied to the monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and the AO index. The AO maximum is found to be related to a negative SST anomaly over the tropical Pacific three months earlier. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is then performed on the tropical Pacific SST and the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Northern Hemisphere. An AO-like atmospheric pattern and its associated SST appear as the second pair of SVD modes. Ensemble integrations are carried out with the SGCM to test the atmospheric response to different tropical Pacific forcings. The atmospheric response to the linear fit of the model’s empirical forcing associated with the SST variability in the second SVD modes strongly projects onto the AO. Idealized thermal forcings are then designed based on the regression of the seasonally averaged tropical Pacific precipitation against the AO index. Results indicate that forcing anomalies over the western tropical Pacific are more effective in generating an AO-like response while those over the eastern tropical Pacific tend to produce a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like response. The physical mechanisms responsible for the energy transport from the tropical Pacific to the extratropical North Atlantic are investigated using wave activity flux and vorticity forcing formalisms. The energy from the western tropical Pacific forcing tends to propagate zonally to the North Atlantic because of the jet stream waveguide effect while the transport of the energy from the eastern tropical Pacific forcing mostly concentrates over the PNA area. The linearized SGCM results show that nonlinear processes are involved in the generation of the forced AO-like pattern.     

汾河流域城乡聚落体系发展潜能测度及空间模式探究

以11 188个自然聚落斑块为研究对象,基于场强模型,定量测度汾河流域城乡聚落体系发展潜能,借助GIS技术和地理探测器模型,分析其空间格局特征及驱动因素,进而探讨流域城乡融合发展空间模式。结果表明:①城乡聚落斑块发展潜能差异显著,且空间分布极不均衡;纵向上中游流域高于下游流域高于上游流域,横向上河谷盆地区高于周边缓丘区高于两侧山丘区。②聚落斑块发展潜能具有正向空间自相关性,高值斑块聚类显著;具有空间异质性特征且方向性明显,汾河主河道方向联动效应最强,空间联系最紧密;存在局域热点区,并呈现"主核–廊道–次核"的空间结构形态。③自然基础、社会经济发展水平和区位条件共同影响着城乡聚落体系发展潜质及空间结构形态;融合发展采取非均衡增长路径,市、县、镇、村全局考虑,构建"强化核心点–培育发展轴–扶持特色区–带动全流域"的逐层推进式空间发展模式。     

气候和人为因素对植被变化影响的评价方法综述

系统评价气候变化和人为因素引起的植被退化,对有效开展生态工程建设、实现生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。目前绝大多研究主要分析气候因素对植被变化的影响,分析气候因素和人类活动对植被变化的双重影响少有研究。本文主要介绍这一双重影响对植被变化的贡献程度的主要研究方法——定性-半定量法、回归分析法、残差趋势法、基于净第一生产力的评价方法。综述分析了气候和人为因素对植被变化驱动的主要结论,总结目前各研究方法存在的问题,提出了未来需要重点加强气候和人为因素对植被变化驱动因素的分解研究,加强模型评价和不确定性量化研究等。     

2008年春季中国南方冰雪冻害林木折损分析

An abrupt ice and snow storm disaster which occurred in the spring of 2008 severely destroyed forests over a surprisingly large portion of southern China. A transect crossing Jinggang Mountain-Jitai Basin-Yushan Mountain-Wuyi Mountain was selected as the study area. The authors integrated field data collected in two field surveys to analyze the impacts of the disturbance on forests. The following results were obtained. (1) The extent of damage to plantations along the transect decreased in the order of slash pine > masson pine > mixed plantation > Chinese fir. Slash pine is an introduced species from southern America which is characterized by fast growth, low wood quality and rich oleoresin, and showed a damage rate of 61.3% of samples, of which 70.4% cannot recover naturally. Masson pine is the native pioneer species of forests with harder wood, and 52.5% were damaged due to turpentine, of which 60.9% cannot recovery naturally. Chinese fir is a local tree species and samples showed a rate of 46% and a relative rate of 32.5%, lower than the mixed plantation. (2) From west to east along the transect, we can see that evergreen broad-leaved forest of the western transect on Jinggang Mountain showed the lightest damage extent, and a Cryptomeria plantation at an altitude of 700 m was severely destroyed while Chinese fir showed light damage below 700 m and relatively severe damage above 900 m. Masson pine and slash pine in the central transect in Jitai Basin were damaged severely due to turpentine activities, and closed natural secondary deciduous broad-leaved forest was damaged severely due to high ice and snow accumulation on intertwined shrubs. Masson pine aerial-seeding plantations below 400 m along the eastern transect in Xingguo and Ningdu counties were nearly undamaged for small tree sizes, and Chinese fir at 500-900 m altitude showed a lighter damage extent. However, masson pine which was distributed above 400 m and planted in the 1960s, was severely damaged due to turpentine.     

1960-2009年横断山区潜在蒸发量时空变化(英文)

Based on the meteorological data of 20 stations in the Hengduan Mountains region during 1961-2009, the annual and seasonal variation of potential evapotranspiration was analyzed in combination with the Penman-Monteith model. With the method of Spline interpolation under ArcGIS, the spatial distribution of potential evapotranspiration was presented to research the regional difference, and the correlation analysis was used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the potential evapotranspiration. The results indicated that the an-nual potential evapotranspiration showed a decreasing tendency since the 1960s, especially from the 1980s to 1990s, while it showed an increasing tendency since 2000. Regional potential evapotranspiration showed a rate of -0.17 mm a?1. Potential evapotranspiration in north, middle and south of the Hengduan Mountains exhibited decreasing trends over the studied period, and its regional trend was on the decline from southwest to northeast.     

Biological marker compounds as indicators of the depositions! history of the Maoming oil shale

The Eocene Maoming oil shale from Guangdong Province occurs as a laterally uniform stratigraphic section, typically 20–25 m thick, from which the aliphatic hydrocarbon constituents of six representative samples were investigated using GC and C-GC-MS. The sediments evaluated included the basal lignite, a vitrinite lens from the overlying claystone, and four intervals from the massive oil shale bed. As expected, the lignite and vitrinite differ markedly from the oil shales. The lignite is dominated by bacterial hopanoids and components of higher plant origin, including C₂₉ steroids and triterpenoids such as oleanenes. Visually, the oil shale samples show corroded and degraded phytoclasts, spores, wispy particles of fluorescent organic material attributable to dinoflagellates and, especially in the uppermost sample, colonial algal bodies. The distributions of biological markers in the oil shales show many features in common, notably a dominance of dinoflagellate-derived 4-methylsteroids, and a significant proportion of higher-plant derived n-alkanes with marked odd-over-even carbon number predominance. Overall, they exhibit several features that resemble characteristics of the Messel shale. The hydrocarbons of the lowest shale horizon suggest that there may have been a gradual transition between deposition of the original peat and the subsequent oil shales. The aliphatic hydrocarbons of the uppermost shale are dominated by a number of C₃₁ and C₃₃ botryococcane homologues and other unusual branched alkanes possibly derived from green algae. All of the samples are immature. Overall, molecular and microscopic examination of the stratigraphic succession of the Maoming oil shale suggests a shallow, lacustrine environment within which peats were deposited. This lake subsequently deepened to support abundant algal populations, especially dinoflagellates, culminating in a dominance of botryococcoid algae.