基于GPS反射信号技术的渤海海冰实验

传统的海冰检测手段都存在着受天气影响或实时检测成本太高的缺点,为了更实时有效的检测海冰,减轻海冰灾害对于我国的影响,并达到防灾减灾的目的,本文研究了GPS反射信号(GPS-R)技术检测海冰的可能性。通过对2013年2月下旬在中国天津渤海湾的岸基架设GPS信号接收机所接收的观测数据进行分析,使用不同特性的反射海域(几乎全为海水或是海冰)的数据进行比对分析,其结果显示极化比值(反射左旋信号与直射右旋信号的比值)能够明显反演海冰密集度。本文首次将GPS-R技术应用于国内自主设计的渤海海冰检测实验中。     

Dynamics of large-truncated mooring systems coupled with a catenary moored semi-submersible

With the floating structures pushing their activities to the ultra-deep water,model tests have presented a challenge due to the limitation of the existing wave basins.Therefore,the concept of truncated mooring system is implemented to replace the full depth mooring system in the model tests,which aims to have the same dynamic responses as the full depth system.The truncated mooring system plays such a significant role that extra attention should be paid to the mooring systems with large truncation factor.Three different types of large truncation factor mooring system are being employed in the simulations,including the homogenously truncated mooring system,non-homogenously truncated mooring system and simplified truncated mooring system.A catenary moored semi-submersible operating at 1000 m water depth is presented.In addition,truncated mooring systems are proposed at the truncated water depth of 200 m.In order to explore the applicability of these truncated mooring systems,numerical simulations of the platform’s surge free decay interacting with three different styles of truncated mooring systems are studied in calm water.Furthermore,the mooring-induced damping of the truncated mooring systems is simulated in the regular wave.Finally,the platform motion responses and mooring line dynamics are simulated in irregular wave.All these simulations are implemented by employing full time domain coupled dynamic analysis,and the results are compared with those of the full depth simulations in the same cases.The results show that the mooring-induced damping plays a significant role in platform motion responses,and all truncated mooring systems are suitable for model tests with appropriate truncated mooring line diameters.However,a large diameter is needed for simplified truncated mooring lines.The suggestions are given to the selection of truncated mooring system for different situations as well as to the truncated mooring design criteria.     

基于Γ函数的暖季小时降水概率分布

我国暖季小时降水的气候概率分布特征分析是开展短时强降水概率预报的重要基础工作。本文使用1991—2009年5月1日至9月30日的小时降水资料,采用最大似然估计方法,对用于描述518个观测站点降水分布的Γ函数的形状参数α和尺度参数β进行了估算,对极端α和β分布情况下大于0.1 mm的暖季小时降水的概率密度分布状况及其累积概率密度分布函数进行了分析,并给出了多个站点基于Γ函数的超过给定阈值的降水累积概率的分布。结果表明:α和β之间的相关性高达0.975,其分布与我国的地势分布有很大的关系。Γ分布可以很好地描述小时降水的分布状况,模拟得到的结果具有更好的连续性,揭示了实况降水中不能观测到的极端降水发生的可能性;华南沿海和海南西北部为最容易出现短时强降水的区域,在有降水的情况下,其小时雨量超过10、20和30 mm的累积概率分别达到了8.0%、2.0%和0.7%,另一个常出现极端降水的区域为鲁苏皖交界处,这是强对流预报中值得注意的区域;95%累积概率密度对应的小时降水阈值分布显示,自西北向东南,极端小时降水的阈值不断增大;α与站点海拔高度之间具有很好的指数相关性,其相关系数达到了0.709,表明地形对我国暖季小时降水量的分布具有重要的影响。     

不同土壤水分对向日葵光合光响应的影响

以食用向日葵为试验材料,大田试验采取人为控制土壤水分在胁迫、适宜和过湿 (土壤田间持水量的40%~54.9%,55%~69.9%和70%~90%) 条件下,研究了向日葵3个生育期 (二对真叶—花序形成期、花序形成—开花期、开花—成熟期) 的光合光响应特性。结果表明:在试验设置光强条件下,各生育期净光合速率随着光合有效辐射的增加而增加,同等的光合有效辐射下净光合速率也随着土壤水分的减少依次降低,尤其是随着光合有效辐射的增大愈加明显。土壤湿度对最大净光合速率和表观量子效率的影响并不是同步的,最大净光合速率随着土壤湿度的增加而增大,而表观量子效率在一定程度的水分胁迫情况下出现最大值。不同的土壤水分含量对光补偿点和光饱和点影响不同,光饱和点随着土壤水分的增加而增加,光补偿点却相反,表明水分胁迫使向日葵可利用光的范围缩小,而适宜水分则扩大了光的利用范围,更有利于干物质积累。暗呼吸速率随着植物的生长进程逐渐降低,不同生育期的水分胁迫均导致暗呼吸速率降低。     

Impact of land–sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking

The impact of asymmetric thermal forcing associated with land–sea distribution on interdecadal variation in large-scale circulation and blocking was investigated using observations and the coupled model intercomparison project outputs. A land–sea index (LSI) was defined to measure asymmetric zonal thermal forcing; the index changed from a negative to a positive anomaly in the 1980s. In the positive phase of the LSI, the 500 hPa geopotential height decreased in the polar regions and increased in the mid-latitudes. The tropospheric planetary wave activity also became weaker and exerted less easterly forcing on the westerly wind. These circulation changes were favorable for westerly wind acceleration and reduced blocking. In the Atlantic, the duration of blocking decreased by 38 % during the positive LSI phase compared with that during the negative phase; in Europe, the number of blocking persisting for longer than 10 days during the positive LSI phase was only half of the number during the negative phase. The observed surface air temperature anomaly followed a distinctive “cold ocean/warm land” (COWL) pattern, which provided an environment that reduced, or destroyed, the resonance forcing of topography and was unfavorable for the development and persistence of blocking. In turn, the responses of the westerly and blocking could further enhance continental warming, which would strengthen the “cold ocean/warm land” pattern. This positive feedback amplified regional warming in the context of overall global warming.     

Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.     

Google Earth Engine平台下秦岭地区植被覆盖时空变化分析

秦岭地区植被覆盖动态变化对其生态环境有重要影响。本文利用Google Earth Engine云平台,选取1986—2019年Landsat TM/OLI地表反射率数据,结合像元二分模型估算秦岭地区植被覆盖度(FVC);通过年际变化斜率、变异系数、Hurst指数等评价指标,对FVC的时空变化、稳定性和持续性变化进行分析。此外,探究FVC与气温、降雨的耦合关系,并分析土地利用变化对FVC的影响。结果表明:34年间,秦岭地区FVC整体上呈现良好的状况,中高等及以上植被覆盖区达73.11%;FVC由1986年的62.86%增长到2019年的70.01%,植被活动在不断增强;FVC的变异系数均值为0.34,标准差为0.45,其稳定性与其空间分布呈高度自相关性;秦岭地区的植被覆盖变化受气候变化和人为因素的共同影响。     

基于改进麻雀搜索算法优化BP神经网络的PM_(2.5)浓度预测北大核心CSCD

针对传统BP神经网络模型收敛速度慢、易陷入局部极值等问题,本文采用分段线性混沌映射(PWLCM)和萤火虫算法(FA)改进麻雀搜索算法(SSA),并优化BP神经网络模型初始权值和阈值,对西安市PM_(2.5)浓度进行预测。通过比较不同模型预测结果的评价指标,并与性能较优的SSA-BP模型对比,ISSA-BP模型预测结果的RMSE、MAPE、MAE分别下降了3.70、3.73、3.34。试验结果表明,改进后的麻雀搜索算法具有高效的全局最优搜索能力,优化后的ISSA-BP神经网络预测稳定性高,精度优于BP、SSA-BP神经网络模型,可用于预测PM_(2.5)浓度。     

基于GPU和UNITY的嵌入式图像实时传输方法

智能化无人矿山对作业现场环境的可视化要求较高,现有的可视化方法仍存在诸多问题:数据采集方式单一,存在监控盲区;数据传输线缆布设困难且易被损坏,传输延时较高;表现形式不够全面立体,并且不能用于VR/AR、SLAM、机器人定位避障等应用场景。为了满足智能矿山建设的可视化需求,本文结合当前传感技术、矿用机器人以及5G技术的发展,探讨了从数据采集、服务器部署到接收显示的详细步骤。针对全景及深度影像这类新型三维数据,提出一种基于GPU和UNITY的嵌入式视频实时传输方法,包括实时编码、异步传输、轻量级的嵌入式流媒体系统、利用UNITY实时处理以及元数据的同步传输。借助UNITY平台,将三维可视化任务从CPU转移至GPU,仿真实验表明,最高渲染帧率为60 fps时,GPU占用率在35%以下。最后,以全景和深度传感器为例进行了测试,对数据编码、位移贴图、纹理纠正进行有效性验证,并从延迟、帧率、CPU占用率3个方面评估性能。结果表明,所提关键技术均可有效提高运行效率、减少资源占用,相比FFplay延时更低。全景影像的可视化代替了视角固定的传统监控,深度数据为智能矿山巡检机器人定位及避障提供实时数据源,传输方法整体向下兼容。不仅解决传统方法视角单一、布线困难的问题,而且考虑到了智能矿山建设过程中的新需求。     

2021年夏季中国大陆涝渍灾害时空分布分析

涝渍害是中国除干旱以外对农作物影响最严重的气象灾害,涝渍害的发生和发展对人民的生命和财产安全以及农作物的生长发育产生巨大的影响。2021年7月至8月间,中国北方多地降水达到历史观测极值,而相应时期地面的涝渍害发生和发展状况及其时空特征并未得到有效研究。因此,本研究首先利用中国大陆土壤水分站点日数据和被动微波遥感卫星SMAP反演土壤水分日产品获取中国高精度表层土壤湿度数据（0—10 cm）;随后,结合田间持水量数据计算土壤表层相对含水量。在此基础上,以连续10 d土壤相对含水量大于等于90%为标准,分析中国大陆2021年7月1日—8月25日的涝渍害时空分布情况。结果表明：（1）融合后的土壤水分产品较原始的SMAP微波土壤水分产品精度具有明显的提高;（2）中国东北地区水稻田种植区的土壤相对含水量大于等于90%的最长持续天数均为56 d,土壤的水分长期处于饱和状态,说明了本文方法能够较为准确的反应出土壤涝渍害的情况;（3）中国东北及华北地区受灾较为严重,其中黑龙江的西部和河北、河南、山东发生的涝渍面积最大。中国大陆耕地部分受涝渍灾害区域占到总耕地面积的1/2左右,重灾区面积为1.940×10⁵ km²;（4）黑龙江的西部及河北、河南、山东等地较往年降水偏多,这与涝渍害受灾区基本吻合。