An examination of the possible occurrence of sea-floor spreading magnetic anomalies on Macquarie Island

Macquarie Island is composed of rocks petrologically similar to those formed at accreting ocean ridges. For this reason a geophysical study of the island and the surrounding ocean was undertaken to examine the possible presence of sea-floor spreading magnetic anomalies. The marine magnetic phase of the study allowed sea-floor spreading anomalies from the Australian plate to be fentatively correlated across Macquarie Island. Macquaric Island occurring about anomaly 7 time (27 m.y.b.p.). The palaeomagnetic phase of the study produced an apparent palaeomagnetic pole for the island consistent with the above. Modelling of the on-land magnetics indicates that the on-land magnetic data reflect dominantly the remanent magnetic properties of the rocks. Exact identification of the time-reversal sequence was not possible, however, because of distruption caused by major faulting on the island.     

Predicting oxygen in small estuaries of the Baltic Sea: a comparative approach

Coastal eutrophication, manifested as hypoxia and anoxia, is a global problem. Only a few empirical models, however, exist to predict bottom oxygen concentration and percentage saturation from nutrient load or morphometry in coastal waters, which are successfully used to predict phytoplankton biomass both in lakes and in estuaries. Furthermore, hardly any empirical models exist to predict bottom oxygen from land-use. A data set was compiled for 19 estuaries in the northern Baltic Sea, which included oxygen concentration and percentage saturation, water chemistry, estuary morphometry, and land-use characteristics. In regression analyses, bottom oxygen was predicted both as a function of the percentage of watershed under agriculture and of mean depth. These models accounted for ca. 55% of the variation in oxygen. Additionally, oxygen was linked to fetch (diameter of the area in the direction of the prevailing wind), which accounted for 30% of the variation in oxygen. This suggests that shallow Finnish estuaries are wind-sensitive. In ‘pits’ (sub-thermocline waters of deep basins), near-bottom total nitrogen strongly correlated with oxygen percentage saturation (R²=0.81). Neither chlorophyll a, total phosphorus nor nutrient loading explained oxygen variation in entire estuaries or in ‘pits’, probably mainly due to annual sedimentation/sediment–water flux dynamics. On the basis of the results of cross-validation, the models have general applicability among Finnish estuaries.     

Degradation of rope properties under increasing monotonic load

This paper describes the development of a computational model to predict the response of synthetic-fiber ropes under both monotonic and cyclic loads. The model addresses the issue of damage to a rope cross-section and its effect on rope response. Isotropic damage is assumed and is therefore characterized by a scalar quantity known as the damage index. The damage index is used to quantify the amount of deterioration that takes place in a damaged rope throughout its loading history. For the current study, data obtained from static tension tests are used to determine the evolution relationship for the damage index. This relationship is based on the stiffness ratio between experimental data and simulation of rope response without any source of damage and is assumed to be described by an exponential equation. Numerical simulations of damaged rope behavior compare well with experimental results.     

Factors affecting the distribution of benthic macrofauna in estuaries contaminated by urban runoff

Contaminants derived from urban runoff have been shown to accumulate in estuarine sediments, reaching concentrations potentially capable of causing biological effects. Demonstration of effects, however, is difficult due to strong natural environmental gradients and the effects of past or present point-sources of contamination. We used multivariate methods to test two hypotheses relating to the effects of urban-derived contaminants on estuarine benthic communities. First, that patterns of distribution and abundance of benthic invertebrates in two urbanised estuaries would be different from those in two non-urbanised estuaries. Second, that the distributions of benthic invertebrates within and among the four estuaries would be related to those of urban-derived contaminants. Concentrations of contaminants were larger in estuaries with urbanised catchments and concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn and DDT in some samples exceeded those at which biological effects may be expected to appear. Tests of differences in composition of benthic communities among estuaries showed that the two urban estuaries were not significantly different, but that they differed from both rural estuaries, which also differed from each other. Distributions of benthic invertebrates were significantly related to those of environmental variables, and were ordinated along axes that correlated with both natural environmental variables (nature of the sediment, position in estuary) and contaminants. Differences in faunas between the urban and non-urban estuaries were not, however, clear-cut and nor were relationships between faunal assemblages and environmental variables (including contaminants) consistent between two times of sampling.     

Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?

Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “alarmism”: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency “erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).” We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD.     

Rhizocarpon calibration curve for the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand

Development of Rhizocarpon growth curve from the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand provides a means to assess Little Ice Age glacier behaviour and suggests approaches that have wider application. Employing a sampling strategy based on large populations affords the opportunity to assess which of various metrics (e.g. single largest, average of five largest, mean of an entire population) best characterise Rhizocarpon growth patterns. The 98% quantile from each population fitted with a quadric curve forms a reliable representation of the growth pattern. Since this metric does not depend on the original sample size, comparisons are valid where sample strategy must be adapted to local situations or where the original sample size differs. For the Aoraki/Mount Cook area a surface 100 years old will have a 98% quantile lichen diameter of 34.3 mm, whereas a 200‐year‐old surface will have a lichen diameter of 73.7 mm. In the Southern Alps, constraints from the age range of calibration points, the flattening of the quadric calibration curve and ecological factors limit the useful age range to approximately 250 years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the testing of fully integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models

Studies employing integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have utilized a variety of test cases to demonstrate model accuracy and consistency between codes. Here, we review the current state of ISSHM testing and evaluate the most popular ISSHM test cases by comparing the hydrodynamic processes simulated in each case to the processes found in well‐characterized, real‐world catchments and by comparing their general attributes to those of successful benchmark problems from other fields of hydrogeology. The review reveals that (1) ISSHM testing and intercode comparison have not adopted specific test cases consistently; (2) despite the wide range of ISSHM metrics available for model testing, only two model performance diagnostics are typically adopted: the catchment outflow hydrograph and the catchment water balance; (3) in intercode comparisons, model performance is usually judged by evaluating only one performance diagnostic: the catchment outflow hydrograph; and (4) ISSHM test cases evaluate a small number of hydrodynamic processes that are largely uniform across the model domain, representing a limited selection of the processes of interest in well‐characterized, real‐world catchments. ISSHM testing would benefit from more intercode comparisons using a consistent set of test cases, aimed at evaluating more catchment processes (e.g. flooding) and using a wider range of simulation diagnostics (e.g. pressure head distributions). To achieve this, a suite of test case variations is required to capture the relevant catchment processes. Finally, there is a need for additional ISSHM test problems that compare model predictions with hydrological observations from intensively monitored field sites and controlled laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The shape, topography, and geology of Tempel 1 from Deep Impact observations

Deep Impact images of the nucleus of Comet Tempel 1 reveal pervasive layering, possible impact craters, flows with smooth upper surfaces, and erosional stripping of material. There are at least 3 layers 50-200 m thick that appear to extend deep into the nucleus, and several layers 1-20 m thick that parallel the surface and are being eroded laterally. Circular depressions show geographical variation in their forms and suggest differences in erosion rates or style over scales >1 km. The stratigraphic arrangement of these features suggests that the comet experienced substantial periods of little erosion. Smooth surfaces trending downslope suggest some form of eruption of materials from this highly porous object. The Deep Impact images show that the nucleus of Tempel 1 cannot be modeled simply as either an onion-layer or rubble pile structure.     

Formation waters discharge to rivers near oil sands projects

Groundwater discharges in the western Canadian oil sands region impact river water quality. Mapping groundwater discharges to rivers in the oil sands region is important to target water quality monitoring efforts and to ensure injected wastewater and steam remain sequestered rather than eventually resurfacing. Saline springs composed of Pleistocene‐aged glacial meltwater exist in the region, but their spatial distribution has not been mapped comprehensively. Here we show that formation waters discharge into 3 major rivers as they flow through the Athabasca Oil Sands Region adjacent to many active oil sands projects. These discharges increase river chloride concentrations from river headwaters to downstream reaches by factors of ~23 in the Christina River, ~4 in the Clearwater River, and ~5 in the Athabasca River. Our survey provides further evidence for the substantial impact of formation water discharges on river water quality, even though they comprise less than ~2% of total streamflow. Geochemical evidence supporting formation water discharges as the leading control on river salinity include increases in river chloride concentrations, Na/(Na + Ca) ratios, Cl/(Cl + SO₄) ratios and decreases in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios; each mixing trend is consistent with saline groundwater discharges sourced from Cretaceous or Devonian aquifers. These regional subsurface‐to‐surface connections signify that injected wastewater or steam may potentially resurface in the future, emphasizing the critical importance of mapping groundwater flow paths to understand present‐day streamflow quality and to predict the potential for injected fluids to resurface.