Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

Climate Dynamics - We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing...     

Petrologic insights from the spectra of the unbrecciated eucrites: Implications for Vesta and basaltic asteroids

Abstract– We investigate the relationship between the petrology and visible–near infrared spectra of the unbrecciated eucrites and synthetic pyroxene–plagioclase mixtures to determine how spectra obtained by the Dawn mission could distinguish between several models that have been suggested for the petrogenesis of Vesta’s crust (e.g., partial melting and magma ocean). Here, we study the spectra of petrologically characterized unbrecciated eucrites to establish spectral observables, which can be used to yield mineral abundances and compositions consistent with petrologic observations. No information about plagioclase could be extracted from the eucrite spectra. In contrast, pyroxene dominates the spectra of the eucrites and absorption band modeling provides a good estimate of the relative proportions of low‐ and high‐Ca pyroxene present. Cr is a compatible element in eucrite pyroxene and is enriched in samples from primitive melts. An absorption at 0.6 μm resulting from Cr³⁺ in the pyroxene structure can be used to distinguish these primitive eucrites. The spectral differences present among the eucrites may allow Dawn to distinguish between the two main competing models proposed for the petrogenesis of Vesta (magma ocean and partial melting). These models predict different crustal structures and scales of heterogeneity, which can be observed spectrally. The formation of eucrite Allan Hills (ALH) A81001, which is primitive (Cr‐rich) and relatively unmetamorphosed, is hard to explain in the magma ocean model. It could only have been formed as a quench crust. If the magma ocean model is correct, then ALHA81001‐like material should be abundant on the surface of Vesta and the Vestoids.     

Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework

We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework to undertake a systematic search for bi-stability of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) for different surface grids and resolutions of 3-D ocean (GOLDSTEIN) under a 3-D dynamical atmosphere model (IGCM). A total of 407,000 years were simulated over a three month period using Grid computing. We find bi-stability of the THC despite significant, quasi-periodic variability in its strength driven by variability in the dynamical atmosphere. The position and width of the hysteresis loop depends on the choice of surface grid (longitude-latitude or equal area), but is less sensitive to changes in ocean resolution. For the same ocean resolution, the region of bi-stability is broader with the IGCM than with a simple energy-moisture balance atmosphere model (EMBM). Feedbacks involving both ocean and atmospheric dynamics are found to promote THC bi-stability. THC switch-off leads to increased import of freshwater at the southern boundary of the Atlantic associated with meridional overturning circulation. This is counteracted by decreased freshwater import associated with gyre and diffusive transports. However, these are localised such that the density gradient between North and South is reduced tending to maintain the THC off state. THC switch-off can also generate net atmospheric freshwater input to the Atlantic that tends to maintain the off state. The ocean feedbacks are present in all resolutions, across most of the bi-stable region, whereas the atmosphere feedback is strongest in the longitude–latitude grid and around the transition where the THC off state is disappearing. Here the net oceanic freshwater import due to the overturning mode weakens, promoting THC switch-on, but the atmosphere counteracts this by increasing net freshwater input. This increases the extent of THC bi-stability in this version of the model. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Sulphate reduction in the sediment of the Venice canals (Italy)

The sulphur cycle in the sediment of the Venice canal network was investigated by considering the sulphate reduction rate (SRR) and the distribution of sulphur compounds, in both pore water and sediment. Sulphate reduction (SR) is the main process in the metabolism of the organic matter supplied to the network by untreated urban effluents. Although it might account for the decomposition of only a limited percentage of the total organic-C inputs, the estimated rates are among the highest observed in coastal sediments. Measured rates range from 0.26 to 0.99 micromolcm(-3)d(-1), while mean annual values, estimated by a diagenetic model, vary from 0.16 to 0.43 micromolcm(-3)d(-1). The speciation of S in the sediment reveals that pyrite-S is the most abundant component of the total reduced S pool, whereas acid volatile sulphides and elemental sulphur together account for less than 45%. A preliminary budget indicates that the rate of burial of solid-phase S is small compared to the S produced by SR (from 10 to 25%). A large amount of reduced S is then lost from the canal deposits to be re-oxidised at the sediment-water interface or in the overlying water column.     

Early dismissals in public schools on potential severe weather days

Survey responses from 76 public school districts in Mississippi and Alabama were analyzed along with county-level demographics, tornado-path data, and tornado warning data to investigate the emerging trend of early dismissals. No two districts had identical responses, but the concern of safety was consistently mentioned. The highest number of reported dismissals would have resulted in a loss of <2 % of total annual class time. The rates of dismissals reported by districts were compared with tornado warning days to identify potential over-dismissal, which was found in 51 % of districts. Rates of dismissal and over-dismissal were analyzed with variables from survey responses, tornado warning data, tornado-path data, and county census data to determine variables that influence differences among districts. Various stepwise models indicate that districts with higher poverty levels could be less likely to dismiss. Permutation tests and stepwise models show that early dismissal and over-dismissal are more likely when a district: (1) has a higher number of killer tornadoes in the last 5 years, (2) has a higher number of recent injury-causing tornadoes, (3) has a higher number of total killer tornadoes since 1950, (4) is in a smaller county, (5) has dismissal decisions made by a team, (6) is a county district rather than a city district, and (7) has a lower level of poverty. The inverse relationship with poverty suggests that schools in poorer areas may be holding students in school because they consider them to be safer there than at home, or it could be due to a lack of resources at the school. All of these are based on a district’s location and plans, things that can be determined before a potential dismissal. These indicators can be used to highlight districts most likely to dismiss and possibly reduce rates of over-dismissal by alerting districts to their predisposed tendencies.     

Towards Closure? Coexistence,remoteness and righteousness in Indigenous policy in Australia

The policy framework claiming to support Indigenous people in remote parts of Australia is in disarray with Commonwealth, state and territory governments proposing closure of remote communities on a range of economic and social policy grounds, but facing significant criticism on economic, environmental, social and cultural grounds. Western Australia's proposal to close 150 remote communities, announced in late-2014, is reviewed and found to reveal a profound failure of geographical literacy.     

Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records

High-resolution sedimentary paleoclimate proxy records offer the potential to expand the detection and analysis of decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability during recent millennia, particularly within regions where traditional high-resolution proxies may be short, sparse, or absent. However, time uncertainty in these records potentially limits a straightforward objective identification of broad-scale patterns of climate variability. Here, we describe a procedure for identifying common patterns of spatiotemporal variability from time uncertain sedimentary records. This approach, which we term Monte Carlo Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, uses iterative age modeling and eigendecomposition of proxy time series to isolate common regional patterns and estimate uncertainties. As a test case, we apply this procedure to a diverse set of time-uncertain lacustrine proxy records from East Africa. We also perform a pseudoproxy experiment using climate model output to examine the ability of the method to extract shared anomalies given known signals. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of our approach, including possible extensions of the technique.     

Linear MHD Wave Propagation in Time-Dependent Flux Tube

MHD waves and oscillations in sharply structured magnetic plasmas have been studied for static and steady systems in the thin tube approximation over many years. This work will generalize these studies by introducing a slowly varying background density in time, in order to determine the changes to the wave parameters introduced by this temporally varying equilibrium, i.e. to investigate the amplitude, frequency, and wavenumber for the kink and higher order propagating fast magnetohydrodynamic wave in the leading order approximation to the WKB approach in a zero-β plasma representing the upper solar atmosphere. To progress, the thin tube and over-dense loop approximations are used, restricting the results found here to the duration of a number of multiples of the characteristic density change timescale. Using such approximations it is shown that the amplitude of the kink wave is enhanced in a manner proportional to the square of the Alfvén speed, $V_{\mathrm{A}}^{2}$ . The frequency of the wave solution tends to the driving frequency of the system as time progresses; however, the wavenumber approaches zero after a large multiple of the characteristic density change timescale, indicating an ever increasing wavelength. For the higher order fluting modes the changes in amplitude are dependent upon the wave mode; for the m=2 mode the wave is amplified to a constant level; however, for all m≥3 the fast MHD wave is damped within a relatively small multiple of the characteristic density change timescale. Understanding MHD wave behavior in time-dependent plasmas is an important step towards a more complete model of the solar atmosphere and has a key role to play in solar magneto-seismological applications.     

The role of perched aquifers in hydrological connectivity and biogeochemical processes in vernal pool landscapes,Central Valley,California

Relatively little is known about the role of perched aquifers in hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological processes of vernal pool landscapes. The objectives of this study are to introduce a perched aquifer concept for vernal pool formation and maintenance and to examine the resulting hydrological and biogeochemical phenomena in a representative catchment with three vernal pools connected to one another and to a seasonal stream by swales. A combined hydrometric and geochemical approach was used. Annual rainfall infiltrated but perched on a claypan/duripan, and this perched groundwater flowed downgradient toward the seasonal stream. The upper layer of soil above the claypan/duripan is ～0·6 m in thickness in the uplands and ～0·1 m in thickness in the vernal pools. Some groundwater flowed through the vernal pools when heads in the perched aquifer exceeded ～0·1 m above the claypan/duripan. Perched groundwater discharge accounted for 30–60% of the inflow to the vernal pools during and immediately following storm events. However, most perched groundwater flowed under or around the vernal pools or was recharged by annual rainfall downgradient of the vernal pools. Most of the perched groundwater was discharged to the outlet swale immediately upgradient of the seasonal stream, and most water discharging from the outlet swale to the seasonal stream was perched groundwater that had not flowed through the vernal pools. Therefore, nitrate‐nitrogen concentrations were lower (e.g. 0·17 to 0·39 mg l^?1) and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were higher (e.g. 5·97 to 3·24 mg l^?1) in vernal pool water than in outlet swale water discharging to the seasonal stream. Though the uplands, vernal pools, and seasonal stream are part of a single surface‐water and perched groundwater system, the vernal pools apparently play a limited role in controlling landscape‐scale water quality. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.