Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

     

Distinctiveness of the mesopelagic fish fauna in the Gulf of Mexico

We quantify the similarity of the Gulf of Mexico mesopelagic fish fauna to that in adjacent oceanic regions, the Venezuelan and Colombian Basins of the Caribbean Sea and the North and South Sargasso Seas. The South Sargasso and Colombian are the least similar of the areas in terms of their faunal composition, and the Venezuelan and Colombian Basins are the most similar. The Gulf fauna lies somewhere in between, and is a composite of that in the Sargasso and Caribbean Seas. The Gulf of Mexico displays the greatest abundance, biomass and richness (S=140 species), and is an intermediate in evenness (J=0.66) and percent endemism (7.1%). Our findings support the view that the centrally located Gulf is an oceanic ecotone between the Atlantic Tropical and Subtropical faunal regions.     

Transitional impact craters on the Moon: Insight into the effect of target lithology on the impact cratering process

We studied a data set of 28 well‐preserved lunar craters in the transitional (simple‐to‐complex) regime with the aim of investigating the underlying cause(s) for morphological differences of these craters in mare versus highland terrains. These transitional craters range from 15 to 42 km in diameter, demonstrating that the transition from simple to complex craters is not abrupt and occurs over a broad diameter range. We examined and measured the following crater attributes: depth (d), diameter (D), floor diameter (D_f), rim height (h), and wall width (w), as well as the number and onset of terraces and rock slides. The number of terraces increases with increasing crater size and, in general, mare craters possess more terraces than highland craters of the same diameter. There are also clear differences in the d/D ratio of mare versus highland craters, with transitional craters in mare targets being noticeably shallower than similarly sized highland craters. We propose that layering in mare targets is a major driver for these differences. Layering provides pre‐existing planes of weakness that facilitate crater collapse, thus explaining the overall shallower depths of mare craters and the onset of crater collapse (i.e., the transition from simple to complex crater morphology) at smaller diameters as compared to highland craters. This suggests that layering and its interplay with target strength and porosity may play a more significant role than previously considered.     

Limpets as prey: Lipophrys pholis choice for size

Patellid limpets are key species on rocky shores, structuring intertidal assemblages through their grazing. Their role as prey for fish is, however, often overlooked in studies of intertidal ecosystem functioning. The shanny Lipophrys pholis is a common predator of limpets on rocky shores in Northern Europe and, in this study, we examined the characteristics of its predation on limpets based on prey size. The limpet size range that adult L. pholis (10–12.5 cm) can eat was examined in the laboratory using Patella depressa in 0.2 cm classes, varying between 0.5 cm and 3.0 cm in maximum shell length. There was a limpet size refuge above 1.8 cm, while all smaller sizes were readily consumed by the shanny. The predator attacking behaviour was also examined and found to vary with prey size. Limpets up to 0.8 cm were crushed by the jaw‐constricting force and eaten whole, whereas larger prey were prised from the substratum and the body subsequently separated from the shell. To examine whether there was a L. pholis preference for P. depressa size, a two‐stage laboratory experiment was done using two size classes defined as small (0.7–0.8 cm maximum shell length) and large (1.5–1.6 cm maximum shell length). In the first stage, the predator was given each limpet size class separately. In the second stage, the fish was given a choice between the two classes. Lipophrys pholis was shown to have a preference for the large size class (1.5–1.6 cm). The average number of limpets consumed by the shanny was examined for the duration of one high‐tide typical of the central region of Portugal (≈ 4 h). On average, approximately five limpets (up to an eight limpet maximum) were consumed. The present study shows that L. pholis has a feeding preference based on limpet size, which suggests that the limpet population structure and intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions may be influenced by the shanny predation.     

Long‐term final void salinity prediction for a post‐mining landscape in the Hunter Valley,New South Wales,Australia

Opencast mining alters surface and subsurface hydrology of a landscape both during and post‐mining. At mine closure, following opencast mining in mines with low overburden to coal ratios, a void is left in the final landform. This final void is the location of the active mine pit at closure. Voids are generally not infilled within the mines' lifetime, because of the prohibitive cost of earthwork operations, and they become post‐mining water bodies or pit lakes. Water quality is a significant issue for pit lakes. Groundwater within coal seams and associated rocks can be saline, depending on the nature of the strata and groundwater circulation patterns. This groundwater may be preferentially drawn to and collected in the final void. Surface runoff to the void will not only collect salts from rainfall and atmospheric fallout, but also from the ground surface and the weathering of fresh rock. As the void water level rises, its evaporative surface area increases, concentrating salts that are held in solution. This paper presents a study of the long term, water quality trends in a post‐mining final void in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia. This process is complex and occurs long term, and modelling offers the only method of evaluating water quality. Using available geochemical, climate and hydrogeological data as inputs into a mass‐balance model, water quality in the final void was found to increase rapidly in salinity through time (2452 to 8909 mg l⁻¹ over 500 years) as evaporation concentrates the salt in the void and regional groundwater containing high loads of salt continues to flow into the void. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow interception modelling: Isolated observations have led to many land surface models lacking appropriate temperature sensitivities

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when sensitivities fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers is just such a case, and it is critical to simulation of the water budget and surface albedo. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but results from this field study are not directly transferable to locations with relatively warmer winters, where the dominant processes differ dramatically. Here, we combine a literature review with model experiments to demonstrate needed improvements. Our results show that the choice of model form and parameters can vary the fraction of snow lost through interception by as much as 30%. In most simulations, the warming of mean winter temperatures from −7 to 0°C reduces the modelled fraction of snow under the canopy compared to the open, but the magnitude of simulated decrease varies from about 10% to 40%. The range of results is even larger when considering models that neglect the melting of in-canopy snow in higher-humidity environments where canopy sublimation plays less of a role. Thus, we recommend that all models represent canopy snowmelt and include representation of increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from −3 to 0°C. In addition to model improvements, field experiments across climates and forest types are needed to investigate how to best model the combination of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover to better understand and predict changes to albedo and water supplies.     

Observations of mine seismicity in the eastern Wasatch Plateau,Utah, U.S.A.: A possible case of implosional failure

In the summer of 1984, a three-dimensional, high-resolution microearthquake network was operated in the vicinity of two coal mines beneath Gentry Mountain in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. During a six-week period, approximately 3,000 seismic events were observed of which the majority were impulsive, higher frequency (>10 Hz), short duration (<2–3 sec) events probably associated with the caving of the roof from a longwall operation. In contrast, 234 of the largest located events appeared to occur predominantlybeneath the mines to a depth of 2 to 3 km consistent with previous studies. The magnitudes of these events ranged from less thanM _c 0 to 1.6. In addition to the unusual depths of these latter events, an anomalous aspect displayed by the events was an apparent dilatational focal mechanism suggesting a non-double-couple, possibly implosional source. Implosional events have been observed in other studies of mine seismicity; however, the generally inadequate instrumental coverage of the focal sphere has cast some doubt on the validity of such mechanisms. Previously suggested source mechanisms for such implosional events have included tensional failure through strata collapse, and a shear-implosional displacement mechanism. Shear failure must be involved in the failure process of the Gentry Mountain implosional events as evidenced by well-defined shear waves in the observed seismograms. Simultaneous monitoring in the East Mountain coal mining area to the south by the University of Utah revealed typical shear failure events mixed with implosional events. The observed double-couple, reverse focal mechanisms at East Mountain were similar to mechanisms determined in previous studies and a composite focal mechanism determined in this study for a sequence outside the mining areas. This suggested that the shear events within the mining areas are being influenced by the regional tectonic stress field. Thus in addition to the seismic events associated with caving of the roof from the longwall operation, there appear to be at least two other types of mining-induced seismic events occurring in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, both submine in origin: (1) events characterized by apparent non-double-couple possibly implosional focal mechanisms and well-defined shear waves; and (2) shear events, which are indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes and may be considered mining triggered earthquakes. The small mining-induced stress changes that occur beyond a few hundred meters from the mine workings suggest both types of seismic events are occurring on critically stressed, pre-existing zones of weakness. Topography, overburden, method of mining, and mine configuration also appear to be significant factors influencing the occurrence of the implosional submine events.     

The rank evaluation of South Brazilian Gondwana coals on the basis of different chemical and physical parameters

Rank evaluation of South Brazilian Gondwana coals according to the American (American Society for Testing and Materials, ASTM) and German (Deutsche Industrie Normen, DIN) standard specifications or on the basis of Alpern's Universal Classification has too often led to conflicting results.When any attempt is made to determine the rank of Brazilian coals by using methods established for the Northern Hemisphere coals, two sorts of difficulties arise: namely, (1) the reflectence measurements do not indicate the real degree of coalification of the organic matter because of the liptinitic impregnations of the vitrinites, and (2) random reflectance values (R_ran, moisture, volatile-matter and carbon contents as well as the calorific value do not correlate when plotted on the ASTM and DIN classification schemes.In addition, when rank determinations are carried out by using fluorescence measurements and geochemical analyses the results are at variance in relation to those determined by the conventional chemical and physical parameters.It is suggested that the rank evaluation of South Brazilian coals is far more meaningful if carried out by reflectance measurements on vitrinites along with fluorescence measurements on sporinites, alginites and coal extracts.     

Seasonal soil water storage changes beneath central Amazonian rainforest and pasture

Evaporation and infiltration were compared for tropical rainforest and pasture, near to Manaus, Brazil from October 1990 to February 1992 using measurements of soil water storage over a depth of 2 m. The soil is a clayey oxisol of low water available capacity. In both of the dry seasons studied, the maximum change in soil water storage in the forest was 154 mm and in the pasture it was 131 and 112 mm. Similar behaviour of the soil water reservoir below forest and pasture in the wet season implied that differences in evaporation and drainage were small. In the dry season, soil water storage behaviour in the upper metre of the soil was similar but there were marked differences in the second metre. The pasture took up little water from below 1.5 m but the forest appeared to utilise all of the available water in the 2 m profile in both seasons.

The water balance of the 2 m profile showed that the pasture evaporation rate was equal to that of the forest until storage had decreased 80 mm from the maximum. There was then a decline in pasture evaporation rate to 1.2 mm day⁻¹ as the storage decreased by a further 50 mm. In contrast, the forest uptake rate remained above 3.5 mm day⁻¹ until storage had decreased 140 mm from the maximum (within 15 mm of the extraction limit), before declining abruptly to less than 1.5 mm day⁻¹. There was strong evidence that the forest was able to abstract water from depths greater than 3.6 m.

Spatial variability of soil water storage was significantly greater beneath the pasture than beneath the forest, particularly following rainfall events in the dry season. This was largely the result of redistribution of rainfall as local surface runoff. There was no evidence of redistribution or runoff in the forest.