Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?

Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “alarmism”: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency “erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).” We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD.     

Rhizocarpon calibration curve for the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand

Development of Rhizocarpon growth curve from the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand provides a means to assess Little Ice Age glacier behaviour and suggests approaches that have wider application. Employing a sampling strategy based on large populations affords the opportunity to assess which of various metrics (e.g. single largest, average of five largest, mean of an entire population) best characterise Rhizocarpon growth patterns. The 98% quantile from each population fitted with a quadric curve forms a reliable representation of the growth pattern. Since this metric does not depend on the original sample size, comparisons are valid where sample strategy must be adapted to local situations or where the original sample size differs. For the Aoraki/Mount Cook area a surface 100 years old will have a 98% quantile lichen diameter of 34.3 mm, whereas a 200‐year‐old surface will have a lichen diameter of 73.7 mm. In the Southern Alps, constraints from the age range of calibration points, the flattening of the quadric calibration curve and ecological factors limit the useful age range to approximately 250 years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the testing of fully integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models

Studies employing integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have utilized a variety of test cases to demonstrate model accuracy and consistency between codes. Here, we review the current state of ISSHM testing and evaluate the most popular ISSHM test cases by comparing the hydrodynamic processes simulated in each case to the processes found in well‐characterized, real‐world catchments and by comparing their general attributes to those of successful benchmark problems from other fields of hydrogeology. The review reveals that (1) ISSHM testing and intercode comparison have not adopted specific test cases consistently; (2) despite the wide range of ISSHM metrics available for model testing, only two model performance diagnostics are typically adopted: the catchment outflow hydrograph and the catchment water balance; (3) in intercode comparisons, model performance is usually judged by evaluating only one performance diagnostic: the catchment outflow hydrograph; and (4) ISSHM test cases evaluate a small number of hydrodynamic processes that are largely uniform across the model domain, representing a limited selection of the processes of interest in well‐characterized, real‐world catchments. ISSHM testing would benefit from more intercode comparisons using a consistent set of test cases, aimed at evaluating more catchment processes (e.g. flooding) and using a wider range of simulation diagnostics (e.g. pressure head distributions). To achieve this, a suite of test case variations is required to capture the relevant catchment processes. Finally, there is a need for additional ISSHM test problems that compare model predictions with hydrological observations from intensively monitored field sites and controlled laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of reaeration‐rate coefficient by modified tracer gas technique

The modified tracer gas technique is used to determine the reaeration coefficient in six different water bodies of the Itajaí River basin, three with rural land use and three in urban areas. Propane was used as the tracer gas and Rhodamine WT as the conservative tracer, providing information on dilution, mixing and dispersion. Liquefied petroleum gas was used instead of high purity propane, aimed at reducing the costs associated with the field trials. Reaeration‐rate coefficients observed in the field ranged from 25.8 to 367.7 d^?1. Two data sets could be observed where smaller streams had substantially larger coefficients of between 133.1 and 367.7 d^?1, while the larger streams had values ??ranging from 25.8 to 54.5 d^?1. Five empirical equations were evaluated by comparing the values ??obtained in the field. The equations proposed by Tsivolgou and Wallace and Tsivoglou and Neal showed greater adherence to the values ??determined in the tests. Reaeration‐rate coefficients obtained in the field were correlated with the hydrodynamic characteristics of the watercourses, thus establishing a mathematical function through which to obtain estimates for future evaluations. The R² value obtained using this equation was 0.959, indicating a high correlation between the calculated values ??and those estimated in the field. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The shape, topography, and geology of Tempel 1 from Deep Impact observations

Deep Impact images of the nucleus of Comet Tempel 1 reveal pervasive layering, possible impact craters, flows with smooth upper surfaces, and erosional stripping of material. There are at least 3 layers 50-200 m thick that appear to extend deep into the nucleus, and several layers 1-20 m thick that parallel the surface and are being eroded laterally. Circular depressions show geographical variation in their forms and suggest differences in erosion rates or style over scales >1 km. The stratigraphic arrangement of these features suggests that the comet experienced substantial periods of little erosion. Smooth surfaces trending downslope suggest some form of eruption of materials from this highly porous object. The Deep Impact images show that the nucleus of Tempel 1 cannot be modeled simply as either an onion-layer or rubble pile structure.     

Deformation of a pervasively molten middle crust: insights from the neoproterozoic Ribeira‐Araçuaí orogen (SE Brazil)

Pervasive melting of the middle crust, as inferred in Tibet and the Altiplano, probably influences the deformation of the lithosphere. To constrain strain distribution in a pervasively molten crust, we analysed the deformation in an eroded analogue of these orogens. The Ribeira‐Araçuaí orogen (SE Brazil) comprises a stack of allochthons containing large volumes of anatectic and magmatic rocks. The upper allochton (∼300 km long, 50–100 km wide and >10 km thick) involves peraluminous diatexites and leucogranites resulting from partial melting of the middle crust. It overlies another allochthon containing huge early‐ to syn‐collisional plutons intruding metasediments. Both anatexites and magmatic intrusions display a pervasive strain‐induced magmatic fabric. Homogeneous strain distribution suggests inefficient localization. U–Pb ages of ∼575 Ma imply that anatexite melting was synchronous to the early‐ to syn‐collisional magmatism. Similarity in ages magmatic and solid‐state fabrics indicates that intrusions and anatexites deformed coherently with solid‐state rocks while still molten, in response to a combination of gravity‐driven and collision‐driven deformation.     

Crustal growth of the central-eastern Paleoproterozoic domain,SW Amazonian craton: Juvenile accretion vs. reworking

The Trans-Amazonian cycle was an important rock-forming event in South America, generating voluminous juvenile and reworked fractions of continental crust. The Bacajá domain, in the southern sector of the Maroni-Itacaiúnas Province in the Amazonian craton, is an example of the Trans-Amazonian terranes adjacent to the Archean Carajás block. Zircon Pb-evaporation and whole-rock Sm–Nd analyses were carried out on representative samples of six lithological units, and allowed the proposal of a comprehensive tectonic-magmatic evolutionary sequence for the central and eastern parts of this domain, from the Neoarchean to the Rhyacian. Gneisses with ages of ca. 2.67 and 2.44 Ga are the oldest rocks recorded in the region, and probably represent remnants of island and continental arcs. The Três Palmeiras succession, emplaced between 2.36 and 2.34 Ga, hosts gold deposits and represents the first record of Siderian supracrustal rocks in the Amazonian craton. It was probably part of an island arc/ocean floor accreted to a craton margin. Rhyacian granitogenesis lasted for ca. 140 My (2.22–2.08 Ga), marking different stages of the Trans-Amazonian cycle. The first stage is represented by continental arc granitoids formed by melting of Archean crust at 2.22–2.18 Ga. The second is characterized by the production of juvenile material between 2.16 and 2.13 Ga. The third and final stage at ca. 2.08 Ga is represented by a large volume of granitoids originated from either juvenile material or reworked crust during compressive stresses. Nd isotopes reveal that juvenile rocks dominated in the northern part of the domain, whereas those formed from reworked crust predominate in the south. The present-day configuration of the Bacajá domain results from collision against the Archean Carajás block at the end of the Trans-Amazonian cycle.     

Formation waters discharge to rivers near oil sands projects

Groundwater discharges in the western Canadian oil sands region impact river water quality. Mapping groundwater discharges to rivers in the oil sands region is important to target water quality monitoring efforts and to ensure injected wastewater and steam remain sequestered rather than eventually resurfacing. Saline springs composed of Pleistocene‐aged glacial meltwater exist in the region, but their spatial distribution has not been mapped comprehensively. Here we show that formation waters discharge into 3 major rivers as they flow through the Athabasca Oil Sands Region adjacent to many active oil sands projects. These discharges increase river chloride concentrations from river headwaters to downstream reaches by factors of ~23 in the Christina River, ~4 in the Clearwater River, and ~5 in the Athabasca River. Our survey provides further evidence for the substantial impact of formation water discharges on river water quality, even though they comprise less than ~2% of total streamflow. Geochemical evidence supporting formation water discharges as the leading control on river salinity include increases in river chloride concentrations, Na/(Na + Ca) ratios, Cl/(Cl + SO₄) ratios and decreases in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios; each mixing trend is consistent with saline groundwater discharges sourced from Cretaceous or Devonian aquifers. These regional subsurface‐to‐surface connections signify that injected wastewater or steam may potentially resurface in the future, emphasizing the critical importance of mapping groundwater flow paths to understand present‐day streamflow quality and to predict the potential for injected fluids to resurface.     

Settlement Analysis of Açu Dam,Brazil

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Dam, popularly known as The Açu Dam, is an important geotechnical construction in Rio Grande do Norte state,...