The hydrological response of surface water to recent climate variability: A remote sensing case study from the central tropical Pacific

For small tropical islands with limited freshwater resources, understanding how island hydrology is influenced by regional climate is important, considering projected hydroclimate and sea level changes as well as growing populations dependent on limited groundwater resources. However, the relationship between climate variability and hydrologic variability for many tropical islands remains uncertain due to local hydroclimatic data scarcity. Here, we present a case study from Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2°N, 157°W), utilizing the normalized difference vegetation index to investigate variability in island surface water area, an important link between climate variability and groundwater storage. Kiritimati surface water area varies seasonally, following wet and dry seasons, and interannually, due to hydroclimate variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The NIÑO3.4 sea surface temperature index, satellite‐derived precipitation, precipitation minus evaporation, and local sea level all had significant positive correlations with surface water area. Lagged correlations show sea level changes and precipitation influence surface water area up to 6 months later. Differences in the timing of surface water area changes and variable climate‐surface water area correlations in island subregions indicate that surface hydrology on Kiritimati is not uniform in response to climate variations. Rather, the magnitude of the ocean–atmosphere anomalies and island–ocean connectivity determine the extent to which sea level and precipitation control surface water area. The very strong 2015–2016 El Niño event led to the largest surface water area measured in the 18‐year data set. Surface water area decreased to pre‐event values in a similarly rapid manner (<6 months) after both the very strong 2015–2016 event and the 2009–2010 moderate El Niño event. Future changes in the frequency and amplitude of interannual hydroclimate variability as well as seasonal duration will thus alter surface water coverage on Kiritimati, with implications for freshwater resources, flooding, and drought.     

Runoff sensitivity to snow depletion curve representation within a continental scale hydrologic model

The spatial variability of snow water equivalent (SWE) can exert a strong influence on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt delivery to a watershed. Therefore, the representation of sub-grid or sub-watershed snow variability in hydrologic models is important for accurately simulating snowmelt dynamics and runoff response. The U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model infrastructure with the precipitation-runoff modelling system (NHM-PRMS) represents the sub-grid variability of SWE with snow depletion curves (SDCs), which relate snow-covered area to watershed-mean SWE during the snowmelt period. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated runoff to SDC representation within the NHM-PRMS across the continental United States (CONUS). SDCs for the model experiment were derived assuming a range of SWE coefficient of variation values and a lognormal probability distribution function. The NHM-PRMS was simulated at a daily time step for each SDC over a 14-year period. Results highlight that increasing the sub-grid snow variability (by changing the SDC) resulted in a consistently slower snowmelt rate and longer snowmelt duration when averaged across the hydrologic response unit scale. Simulated runoff was also found to be sensitive to SDC representation, as decreases in simulated snowmelt rate by 1 mm day⁻¹ resulted in decreases in runoff ratio by 1.8% on average in snow-dominated regions of the CONUS. Simulated decreases in runoff associated with slower snowmelt rates were approximately inversely proportional to increases in simulated evapotranspiration. High snow persistence and peak SWE:annual precipitation combined with a water-limited dryness index was associated with the greatest runoff sensitivity to changing snowmelt. Results from this study highlight the importance of carefully parameterizing SDCs for hydrologic modelling. Furthermore, improving model representation of snowmelt input variability and its relation to runoff generation processes is shown to be an important consideration for future modelling applications.     

The Main Belt Comets and ice in the Solar System

We review the evidence for buried ice in the asteroid belt; specifically the questions around the so-called Main Belt Comets (MBCs). We summarise the evidence for water throughout the Solar System, and describe the various methods for detecting it, including remote sensing from ultraviolet to radio wavelengths. We review progress in the first decade of study of MBCs, including observations, modelling of ice survival, and discussion on their origins. We then look at which methods will likely be most effective for further progress, including the key challenge of direct detection of (escaping) water in these bodies.     

Development of a Default Vapor Intrusion Attenuation Factor for Industrial Buildings

An investigation at a major industrial facility in the Midwestern United States provides insights regarding the amount of attenuation of sub-surface vapors occurring at industrial buildings. The buildings at the facility were ranked in terms of vapor intrusion potential and testing began in October 2016 and is ongoing. Results have been evaluated for data collected at 718 unique locations across 77 buildings. A total of 1646 sample pairs (sub-slab and indoor air) have been collected and analyzed for 65 analytes, resulting in a total of 106,990 data pairs. As many as 49 sample pairs were collected within a given building during a single sampling event and up to 11 rounds of seasonal testing have been performed at selected buildings. Seasonal variability in sub-slab soil-gas concentrations was found to be negligible. Data analysis was performed to look for data trends across the entire data set and identify inter-building comparisons. This data evaluation focused on individual volatile organic compounds (e.g., tetrachloroethylene, trichloroethylene) present in the sub-slab soil gas at concentrations exceeding 1000 μg/m³. A total of 157 building-specific attenuation coefficients (α) were evaluated. This evaluation demonstrated that large industrial buildings have a much greater attenuation than that assumed for single-family residential buildings. All attenuation coefficient values were lower than 0.03, which is the standard regulatory default for non-residential buildings. The median value was 9.3E-05 and the 95% upper confidence limit was 2.7E-04. There is some evidence of lower attenuation under wintertime conditions. The data suggests that the default attenuation factor of 0.03 over-predicts indoor air impacts at this industrial facility by at least two orders of magnitude.     

Circular plumes in Lake Pontchartrain estuary under wind straining

Circular shaped density plumes of low turbidity, low fecal indicator (Escherichia coli and enterococci) concentrations, and high salinity have been observed near the Industrial Canal in Lake Pontchartrain, north of the City of New Orleans. A conceptual model in polar coordinates and a numerical model are developed, together with data analysis, to illustrate the dense plume. It is demonstrated that the northward expansion of the plume occurs under northerly winds. The northward expansion of the plume occurs under northerly winds that drive downwind flow at the surface and upwind radial flow at the bottom. Northerly wind-induced straining, similar to tidal straining, promotes vertical stratification. As a result, the water becomes stratified near a thin bottom layer (<1 m), within which density currents are facilitated. The stability of the stratified plume suppresses wind-induced turbulent mixing inside the plume. The bottom water outside of the plume is more effectively stirred by the wind, the result being that the suspended sediment concentration outside of the plume area is much higher than inside. This contrast in mixing makes the plume visible from the surface by satellites even though the stratification is at the bottom. Laterally, wind stress produces a torque (vorticity) in areas of non-uniform depth such that upwind flow is developed in deep water and downwind flow in shallow water. The continuity requirement produces an upwind flow along the axis of the Industrial Canal (IC). The upwind flow is balanced by the downwind flow over the shallower peripheral areas along the coast.     

Emergent characteristics of rockfall inventories captured at a regional scale

High-resolution rockfall inventories captured at a regional scale are scarce. This is partly owing to difficulties in measuring the range of possible rockfall volumes with sufficient accuracy and completeness, and at a scale exceeding the influence of localized controls. This paucity of data restricts our ability to abstract patterns of erosion, identify long-term changes in behaviour and assess how rockfalls respond to changes in rock mass structural and environmental conditions. We have addressed this by developing a workflow that is tailored to monitoring rockfalls and the resulting cliff retreat continuously (in space), in three-dimensional (3D) and over large spatial scales (>10⁴ m). We tested our approach by analysing rockfall activity along 20.5 km of coastal cliffs in North Yorkshire (UK), in what we understand to be the first multi-temporal detection of rockfalls at a regional scale. We show that rockfall magnitude–frequency relationships, which often underpin predictive models of erosion, are highly sensitive to the spatial extent of monitoring. Variations in rockfall shape with volume also imply a systemic shift in the underlying mechanisms of detachment with scale, leading us to question the validity of applying a single probabilistic model to the full range of rockfalls observed here. Finally, our data emphasize the importance of cliff retreat as an episodic process. Going forwards, there will a pressing need to understand and model the erosional response of such coastlines to rising global sea levels as well as projected changes to winds, tides, wave climates, precipitation and storm events. The methodologies and data presented here are fundamental to achieving this, marking a step-change in our ability to understand the competing effects of different processes in determining the magnitude and frequency of rockfall activity and ultimately meaning that we are better placed to investigate relationships between process and form/erosion at critical, regional scales. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Ecological assessment to detect imminent change in coral reefs of Admiral Cockburn Land and Sea National Park,Turks and Caicos Islands

Coral reefs of the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCIs) (Caribbean Sea) constitute some of the few pristine coral reef systems in the world and play a crucial role in the islands’ economy because they support rich fisheries catches and tourism development. Ambitious development plans involving increase in fishing and tourism pressures are about to bring changes in coastal zone resources of the TCIs associated with increased sediments and nutrients and reduced predation by herbivorous fish on coral reefs. Understanding change is critical when attempting to protect the resources that these coral reefs support and to adopt proper management strategies. Yet, an environmental assessment program to detect imminent human‐induced changes on the surrounding reefs of the TCIs is lacking. Thus, (i) we obtained baseline data on benthic composition and coral community structure at seven reef sites of representative reefs of the TCIs within the Admiral Cockburn Land and Sea National Park (ACLSNP) of South Caicos Island and (ii) performed a priori statistical power analysis to calculate replication requirements for safely and confidently detecting small (δ = 0.1), medium (δ = 0.3), and large (δ = 0.5) effect sizes for a number of relevant to anticipated changes, univariate, benthic indices and for power β = 0.95. The platforms of the margin reefs studied (9–12 m depth) appeared rather variable regarding benthic composition but quite homogeneous regarding hard coral community structure. Mean percent cover of algal functional groups was 0.1 ± 0.3 (mean ± sd) percent for coralline algae and Halimeda, 0.1 ± 0.6 (mean ± sd) percent for macroalgae, 21.7 ± 33 (mean ± sd) percent for turf algae and 4.8 ± 4.0 (mean ± sd) percent for hard coral cover. The dominant benthic component, however, was carbonate substrate (mean ± sd = 30.4 ± 34.3), thus indicating an accreting reef framework. Mean hard coral density, colony size and recruit density were 5.5 ± 1.8 (mean ± sd) corals per 20‐m line transect, 13.0 ± 2.3 (mean ± sd) cm maximum colony diameter, and 1.3 ± 1.4 (mean ± sd) recruits per square foot, respectively. Due to high natural variance, hard coral colony size and density were practically the most sensitive indices in detecting even small size changes on benthos. Also, the geometric mean of log‐transformed colony size‐frequency distributions of the most abundant hard coral taxa, i.e. Montastrea annularis, Agaricia spp., Siderastrea spp. and Porites asteroides were practically sensitive for the same purpose. We hope that the study will optimize the spatial component of a necessary environmental impact assessment program on coral reefs of the TCIs once the natural spatial variability of the system has been assessed and sensitive, benthic, univariate indices have been identified for representative reference coral reef sites of the TCIs.