Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?

Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “alarmism”: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency “erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).” We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD.     

The April 2010 North African heatwave: when the water vapor greenhouse effect drives nighttime temperatures

Climate Dynamics - North Africa experienced a severe heatwave in April 2010 with daily maximum temperatures ( $$T_{max}$$ ) frequently exceeding $$40\,^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$$ and daily minimum...     

Rhizocarpon calibration curve for the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand

Development of Rhizocarpon growth curve from the Aoraki/Mount Cook area of New Zealand provides a means to assess Little Ice Age glacier behaviour and suggests approaches that have wider application. Employing a sampling strategy based on large populations affords the opportunity to assess which of various metrics (e.g. single largest, average of five largest, mean of an entire population) best characterise Rhizocarpon growth patterns. The 98% quantile from each population fitted with a quadric curve forms a reliable representation of the growth pattern. Since this metric does not depend on the original sample size, comparisons are valid where sample strategy must be adapted to local situations or where the original sample size differs. For the Aoraki/Mount Cook area a surface 100 years old will have a 98% quantile lichen diameter of 34.3 mm, whereas a 200‐year‐old surface will have a lichen diameter of 73.7 mm. In the Southern Alps, constraints from the age range of calibration points, the flattening of the quadric calibration curve and ecological factors limit the useful age range to approximately 250 years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐Younger Dryas deglaciation of the Greenland western margin as revealed by spatial analysis of lakes

Lake shapes and their spatial distribution are important geomorphological indicators in previously glaciated areas. Their shapes are influenced by the underlying geological structure and processes of glacial sediment deposition or erosion. Since these processes act on large areas, distribution of lakes can reflect the intensity of glacial erosional/depositional processes and their spatial extent. Landsat imagery was used to extract lake outlines from a selected pilot‐study area on the widest ice‐free coastal margin of the south‐western Greenland north of Kangerlussuaq. Analysis included image classification and spatial analysis of lakes with elevation data using geographic information system (GIS) tools. A morphometric index was applied to extract kettle lakes as indicators of a specific glacial process – ice stagnation. Analysis of their spatial distribution helped in the reconstruction of glacial dynamics in formerly glaciated terrain. Our results show that spatial lake distribution combined with elevation analysis can be used to identify zones of glacial erosion and deposition. The highest concentrations of lakes within the study area occupy the elevation range between 164 and 361 m above sea level (a.s.l.). This zone can be identified as an area where intensive glacial erosion took place in the past. The widespread distribution of modeled kettle lake features within the same elevation range and across the study area suggests that the last deglaciation process was accompanied by abandonment of blocks of stagnant ice. This conclusion is supported by surface exposure ages obtained in the same study area and published elsewhere. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The origin of Himalayan anatexis and inverted metamorphism: Models and constraints

The key to comprehending the tectonic evolution of the Himalaya is to understand the relationships between large-scale faulting, anatexis, and inverted metamorphism. The great number and variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain some or all of these features reflects the fact that fundamental constraints on such models have been slow in coming. Recent developments, most notably in geophysical imaging and geochronology, have been key to coalescing the results of varied Himalayan investigations into constraints with which to test proposed evolutionary models. These models fall into four general types: (1) the inverted metamorphic sequences within the footwall of the Himalayan thrust and adjacent hanging wall anatexis are spatially and temporally related by thrusting; (2) thrusting results from anatexis; (3) anatexis results from normal faulting; and (4) apparent inverted metamorphism in the footwall of the Himalayan thrust is produced by underplating of right-way-up metamorphic sequences. We review a number of models and find that many are inconsistent with available constraints, most notably the recognition that the exposed crustal melts and inverted metamorphic sequences not temporally related. The generalization that appears to best explain the observed distribution of crustal melts and inverted metamorphic sequences is that, due to specific petrological and tectonic controls, episodic magmatism and out-of-sequence thrusting developed during continuous convergence juxtaposing allochthonous igneous and metamorphic rocks. This coincidental juxtaposition has proven to be something of a red herring, unduly influencing attention toward finding a causal relationship between anatexis and inverted metamorphism.     

Corrections to: Interpreting lacustrine bulk sediment δ15N values using metagenomics in a tropical hypersaline lake system

Journal of Paleolimnology -     

Formation waters discharge to rivers near oil sands projects

Groundwater discharges in the western Canadian oil sands region impact river water quality. Mapping groundwater discharges to rivers in the oil sands region is important to target water quality monitoring efforts and to ensure injected wastewater and steam remain sequestered rather than eventually resurfacing. Saline springs composed of Pleistocene‐aged glacial meltwater exist in the region, but their spatial distribution has not been mapped comprehensively. Here we show that formation waters discharge into 3 major rivers as they flow through the Athabasca Oil Sands Region adjacent to many active oil sands projects. These discharges increase river chloride concentrations from river headwaters to downstream reaches by factors of ~23 in the Christina River, ~4 in the Clearwater River, and ~5 in the Athabasca River. Our survey provides further evidence for the substantial impact of formation water discharges on river water quality, even though they comprise less than ~2% of total streamflow. Geochemical evidence supporting formation water discharges as the leading control on river salinity include increases in river chloride concentrations, Na/(Na + Ca) ratios, Cl/(Cl + SO₄) ratios and decreases in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios; each mixing trend is consistent with saline groundwater discharges sourced from Cretaceous or Devonian aquifers. These regional subsurface‐to‐surface connections signify that injected wastewater or steam may potentially resurface in the future, emphasizing the critical importance of mapping groundwater flow paths to understand present‐day streamflow quality and to predict the potential for injected fluids to resurface.     

On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates

This study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates from eleven general circulation models participating in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and analyzes inter-model differences. This is done by taking into account the fact that the climate response to increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) is not necessarily only mediated by surface temperature changes, but can also result from fast land warming and tropospheric adjustments to the CO₂ radiative forcing. By considering tropospheric adjustments to CO₂ as part of the forcing rather than as feedbacks, and by using the radiative kernels approach, we decompose climate sensitivity estimates in terms of feedbacks and adjustments associated with water vapor, temperature lapse rate, surface albedo and clouds. Cloud adjustment to CO₂ is, with one exception, generally positive, and is associated with a reduced strength of the cloud feedback; the multi-model mean cloud feedback is about 33 % weaker. Non-cloud adjustments associated with temperature, water vapor and albedo seem, however, to be better understood as responses to land surface warming. Separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks. About 70 % of the spread stems from the cloud feedback, which remains the major source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, with a large contribution from the tropics. Differences in tropical cloud feedbacks between low-sensitivity and high-sensitivity models occur over a large range of dynamical regimes, but primarily arise from the regimes associated with a predominance of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. The combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback also contributes to the spread of climate sensitivity estimates, with inter-model differences arising primarily from the relative humidity responses throughout the troposphere. Finally, this study points to a substantial role of nonlinearities in the calculation of adjustments and feedbacks for the interpretation of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity estimates. We show that in climate model simulations with large forcing (e.g., 4 × CO₂), nonlinearities cannot be assumed minor nor neglected. Having said that, most results presented here are consistent with a number of previous feedback studies, despite the very different nature of the methodologies and all the uncertainties associated with them.