Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records

High-resolution sedimentary paleoclimate proxy records offer the potential to expand the detection and analysis of decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability during recent millennia, particularly within regions where traditional high-resolution proxies may be short, sparse, or absent. However, time uncertainty in these records potentially limits a straightforward objective identification of broad-scale patterns of climate variability. Here, we describe a procedure for identifying common patterns of spatiotemporal variability from time uncertain sedimentary records. This approach, which we term Monte Carlo Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, uses iterative age modeling and eigendecomposition of proxy time series to isolate common regional patterns and estimate uncertainties. As a test case, we apply this procedure to a diverse set of time-uncertain lacustrine proxy records from East Africa. We also perform a pseudoproxy experiment using climate model output to examine the ability of the method to extract shared anomalies given known signals. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of our approach, including possible extensions of the technique.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Chlorinated Solvent Source‐Zone Remediation via ZVI‐Clay Soil Mixing: 1‐Year Results

ZVI‐Clay is an emerging remediation approach that combines zero‐valent iron (ZVI)‐mediated degradation and in situ stabilization of chlorinated solvents. Through use of in situ soil mixing to deliver reagents, reagent‐contaminant contact issues associated with natural subsurface heterogeneity are overcome. This article describes implementation, treatment performance, and reaction kinetics during the first year after application of the ZVI‐Clay remediation approach at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. Primary contaminants included trichloroethylene, 1,1,2,2‐tetrachloroethane, and related natural degradation products. For the field application, 22,900 m³ of soils were treated to an average depth of 7.6 m with 2% ZVI and 3% sodium bentonite (dry weight basis). Performance monitoring included analysis of soil and water samples. After 1 year, total concentrations of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) in soil samples were decreased by site‐wide average and median values of 97% and >99%, respectively. Total CVOC concentrations in groundwater were reduced by average and median values of 81% and >99%, respectively. In several of the soil and groundwater monitoring locations, reductions in total CVOC concentrations of greater than 99.9% were apparent. Further reduction in concentrations of chlorinated solvents is expected with time. Pre‐ and post‐mixing average hydraulic conductivity values were 1.7 × 10^?5 and 5.2 × 10^?8 m/s, respectively, indicating a reduction of about 2.5 orders of magnitude. By achieving simultaneous contaminant mass depletion and hydraulic conductivity reduction, contaminant flux reductions of several orders of magnitude are predicted.     

Quantifying terrain controls on runoff retention and routing in the Northern Prairies

The role of hummocky terrain in governing runoff routing and focussing groundwater recharge in the Northern Prairies of North America is widely recognised. However, most hydrological studies in the region have not effectively utilised information on the surficial geology and associated landforms in large-scale hydrological characterization. The present study uses an automated digital elevation model (DEM) analysis of a 6500-km² area in the Northern Prairies to quantify hydrologically relevant terrain parameters for the common types of terrains in the prairies with different surficial deposits widespread in the prairies, namely, moraines and glaciolacustrine deposits. Runoff retention (and storage) capacity within depressions varies greatly between different surficial deposits and is comparable in magnitude with a typical amount of seasonal snowmelt runoff generation. The terrain constraint on potential runoff retention varies from a few millimetres in areas classified as moraine to tens of millimetres in areas classified as stagnant ice moraine deposits. Fluted moraine and glaciolacustrine deposits have intermediate storage capacity values. The study also identified the probability density function describing a number of immediate upstream neighbours for each depression in a fill-and-spill network. A relationship between depression parameters and surficial deposits, as well as identified depression network structure, allows parametrisation of hydrologic models outside of the high-resolution DEM coverage, which can still account for terrain variation in the Prairies.     

Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.     

Summary of recent volcanic activity

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, v. 29, no. 4, April 2004 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this Bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

Simulation of gaseous diffusion in partially saturated porous media under variable gravity with lattice Boltzmann methods

Liquid distributions in unsaturated porous media under different gravitational accelerations and corresponding macroscopic gaseous diffusion coefficients were investigated to enhance understanding of plant growth conditions in microgravity. We used a single-component, multiphase lattice Boltzmann code to simulate liquid configurations in two-dimensional porous media at varying water contents for different gravity conditions and measured gas diffusion through the media using a multicomponent lattice Boltzmann code. The relative diffusion coefficients (D rel) for simulations with and without gravity as functions of air-filled porosity were in good agreement with measured data and established models. We found significant differences in liquid configuration in porous media, leading to reductions in D rel of up to 25% under zero gravity. The study highlights potential applications of the lattice Boltzmann method for rapid and cost-effective evaluation of alternative plant growth media designs under variable gravity.     

Can stable isotopes be used to monitor landfill leachate impact on surface waters?

Bacterially mediated methanogenesis in municipal solid waste landfills has been shown to cause an enrichment of carbon stable isotope ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon and hydrogen stable isotope ratios of water in landfill leachate. In the present study, we investigate the universality of this enrichment in leachate obtained from four diverse landfill sites in New Zealand. At each site, surface water samples upstream and downstream of landfills were analysed to examine the applicability of stable isotope ratios as a tool for monitoring leachate contamination in landfill-associated streams. The design of leachate collection systems, operational history, and landfill location appeared to strongly influence leachate isotopic values and the effectiveness of isotope ratios as an environmental monitoring tool for surface water.     

A discrete particle representation of hillslope hydrology: hypothesis testing in reproducing a tracer experiment at Gårdsjön,Sweden

Despite the long history of the continuum equation approach in hydrology, it is not a necessary approach to the formulation of a physically based representation of hillslope hydrology. The Multiple Interacting Pathways (MIPs) model is a discrete realization that allows hillslope response and transport to be simultaneously explored in a way that reflects the potential occurrence of preferential flows and lengths of pathways. The MIPs model uses random particle tracking methods to represent the flow of water within the subsurface alongside velocity distributions that acknowledge preferential flows and transition probability matrices, which control flow pathways. An initial realization of this model is presented here in application to a tracer experiment carried out in Gårdsjön, Sweden. The model is used as an exploratory tool, testing several hypotheses in relation to this experiment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.