Probabilistic leak detectability assessment via state estimation in water transport networks

Leak detectability or leakage awareness refers to the capability of sensing losses from a water supply system. Several methods exist in the technical literature to tackle this problem, but only few address it with a state estimation approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new methodology that enables probabilistic assessment of the extent to which water loss could be detected using state estimation by only analysing a single hydraulic state, i.e. one time period. Significant leaks are sensed by identifying unusually high normalised state estimation residuals, which can be identified based on the largest normalised residual test. More specifically, the probability of detecting leaks is computed here by working with the multivariate distribution among measurements and estimates to take into account the noisy nature of measurements with an analytical approach rather than with sampling experiments, which are time-consuming. The methodology set out herein also provides a procedure to systematically assess the minimum leak that could be detected in different parts of the network for a specific measurement setting and operating condition. The method has been applied to a water transport network case study to show its potential and to highlight the usefulness of such a tool for practitioners. The limitations of such a methodology are also discussed, including its possible use for on-line leak detection strategies.     

A geostatistical protocol to optimize spatial sampling of domestic drinking water supplies in remote environments

This paper deals with the design of optimal spatial sampling of water quality variables in remote regions, where logistics are complicated and the optimization of monitoring networks may be critical to maximize the effectiveness of human and material resources. A methodology that combines the probability of exceeding some particular thresholds with a measurement of the information provided by each pair of experimental points has been introduced. This network optimization concept, where the basic unit of information is not a single spatial location but a pair of spatial locations, is used to emphasize the locations with the greatest information, which are those at the border of the phenomenon (for example contamination or a quality variable exceeding a given threshold), that is, where the variable at one of the locations in the pair is above the threshold value and the other is below the threshold. The methodology is illustrated with a case of optimizing the monitoring network by optimal selection of the subset that best describes the information provided by an exhaustive survey done at a given moment in time but which cannot be repeated systematically due to time or economic constrains.     

On the significance of the climate-dataset time resolution in characterising wind-driven rain and simultaneous wind pressure. Part I: scalar approach

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - The joint action of wind-driven rain and wind pressure is the main cause of water penetration in building facades, which causes various...     

Deglacial palaeoclimate at Puerto del Hambre,subantarctic Patagonia,Chile

The primary objective of this study is to further substantiate multistep climatic forcing of late‐glacial vegetation in southern South America. A secondary objective is to establish the age of deglaciation in Estrecho de Magallanes–Bahía Inútil. Pollen assemblages at 2‐cm intervals in a core of the mire at Puerto del Hambre (53°36′21″S, 70°55′53″W) provide the basis for reconstructing the vegetation and a detailed account of palaeoclimate in subantarctic Patagonia. Chronology over the 262‐cm length of core is regulated by 20 AMS radiocarbon dates between 14 455 and 10 089 ¹⁴C yr BP. Of 13 pollen assemblage zones, the earliest representing the Oldest Dryas chronozone (14 455–13 000 ¹⁴C yr BP) records impoverished steppe with decreasing frequencies and loss of southern beech (Nothofagus). Successive 100‐yr‐long episodes of grass/herbs and of heath (Empetrum/Ericaceae) before 14 000 ¹⁴C yr BP infer deglacial successional communities under a climate of increased continentality prior to the establishment of grass‐dominated steppe. The Bølling–Allerød (13 000–11 000 ¹⁴C yr BP) is characterised by mesic grassland under moderating climate that with abrupt change to heath dominance after 12 000 ¹⁴C yr BP was warmer and not as humid. At the time of the Younger Dryas (11 000–10 000 ¹⁴C yr BP), grass steppe expanded with a return of colder, more humid climate. Later, with gradual warming, communities were invaded by southern beech. The Puerto del Hambre record parallels multistep, deglacial palaeoclimatic sequences reported elsewhere in the Southern Andes and at Taylor Dome in Antarctica. Deglaciation of Estrecho de Magallanes–Bahía Inútil is dated close to 14 455 ¹⁴C yr BP, invalidating earlier dates of between 15 800 and 16 590 ¹⁴C yr BP. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Instability in spatial error models: an application to the hypothesis of convergence in the European case

This paper focuses on the hypothesis of stability in the mechanisms of spatial dependence that are usually employed in spatial econometric models. We propose a specification strategy for which the first step is to solve a local estimation algorithm, called the Zoom estimation. The aim of this stage is to detect problems of heterogeneity in the parameters and to identify the regimes. Then we resort to a battery of formal Lagrange Multipliers to test the assumption of stability in the processes of spatial dependence. The alternative hypothesis consists of the existence of several regimes in these parameters. A small Monte Carlo serves to confirm the behaviour of this strategy in a context of finite size samples. As an illustration, we solve an application to the case of the hypothesis of convergence for the per capita income in the European regions. Our results reveal the existence of a strong Centre-Periphery dichotomy in which instability extends to all the elements (coefficients of regression as well as parameters of spatial dependence) that intervene in a classical conditional β-convergence model.     

Cultural land use and vegetation dynamics in the uplands of northern Portugal from the Middle Ages to the Modern period

In Europe, mountain landscapes have evolved in a long-term relationship with human communities and present-day landscapes reflect that ancient interaction. The present study aims to reconstruct human activity in two mountain areas in northern Portugal using palynological analysis integrated with the available regional historical, archaeological and palaeoenvironmental archives. Pollen records from two sedimentary sequences span the Medieval and Modern periods and show that mixed agriculture and livestock grazing were consistently present in both regions throughout these times. Variations in cultural indicators show that the extent of farming fluctuated throughout time, with a general increase in cultivation during the Medieval period but with contractions likely coinciding with times of social disturbance. Historical sources suggest that sociopolitical factors and population pressure were fundamental in the utilisation of upland spaces. This study did not find any convincing evidence to suggest that fire was a fundamental factor in heathland spread. We conclude that long-term occupation of the uplands was sustained by low-intensity land use throughout the Medieval to post-Medieval periods, and that the present landscape has assumed a very different character following depopulation of the mountain areas and a shift towards commercial forestry.     

On Sinkholes and Galaxies: An Example of Fractal Universality

Mathematical Geosciences - The universality of fractals implies that very different physical processes can give rise to similar complex spatial patterns. Sinkholes (dolines) and galaxies provide a...     

Threshold of motion of bivalve and gastropod shells under oscillatory flow in flume experiments

The threshold of motion of non-fragmented mollusc shells was studied for the first time under oscillatory flow. In this regard, flume experiments were used to investigate the threshold of motion of three bivalve and three gastropod species, two typical mollusc classes of coastal coquina deposits. The sieve diameters ranged from 2·0 to 15·9 mm. These experiments were performed on a flat-bottom setup under regular non-breaking waves (swell) produced by a flap-type wave generator. The critical Shields values for each species of mollusc were plotted against the sieve and nominal diameter. Moreover, the dimensionless Corey shape factor of the shells was evaluated in order to investigate the effect of mollusc shell shapes on the threshold of motion. According to their critical Shields parameter, the mollusc threshold data under oscillatory flow present smaller values than the siliciclastic sediments when considering their sieve diameter. In addition, the mollusc datasets are below the empirical curves built from siliciclastic grain data under current and waves. When considering the nominal diameter, the critical Shields parameter increases and the mollusc data are closer to siliciclastic sediments. Bivalves, which have a flat-concave shape (form factor: 0·27 to 0·37), have a higher critical Shields parameter for smaller particles and more uniform datasets than the gastropod scattered data, which have a rounded shape (form factor: 0·58 to 0·62) and have varied morphologies (ellipsoidal, conical and cubic). The comparison between previous current-driven threshold data of bioclastic sediment motion and the data of mollusc whole shells under oscillatory flow shows a fair correlation on the Shields diagram, in which all datasets are below the mean empirical curves for siliciclastic sediments. These findings indicate that the shape effect on the transport initiation is predominant for smaller shells. The use of the nominal diameter is satisfactory to improve the bioclastic and siliciclastic data correlation.     

An extreme wave event in eastern Yucatán,Mexico: Evidence of a palaeotsunami event during the Mayan times

The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region with little significant seismic activity. The region though, is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca 100 km of the eastern Yucatán and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing individual boulders measuring >1 m in length. The boulder ridges reach 5 m in height and their origin is associated with extreme wave event activity. Previously modelled tsunami waves from known seismically active zones in the region (Muertos Thrust Belt and South Caribbean Deformed Belt) are not of sufficient scale in the area of the Yucatán Peninsula to have produced the boulder ridges recorded in this study. The occurrence of hurricanes in this region is more common, but two of the most destructive (Hurricane Gilbert 1988 and Hurricane Wilma 2005) produced coastal waves too small to have created the ridges recorded here. In this paper, a new tsunami model with a source area located on the Motagua/Swan Island Fault System has been generated that indicates a tsunami event may have caused the extreme wave events that resulted in the deposition of the boulder ridges.     

Reanalysing strong-convective wind damage paths using high-resolution aerial images

Natural Hazards - High-resolution aerial imagery may provide very detailed information about strong-convective wind events, which can be very useful to enhance and make more robust severe weather...