Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.     

An evaluation of beached bird monitoring approaches

Oil-pollution monitoring at sea through beach bird surveying would undoubtedly benefit from a further standardisation of methods, enhancing the efficiency of data collection. In order to come up with useful recommendations, we evaluated various approaches of beached bird collection at the Belgian coast during seven winters (1993-1999). Data received in a passive way by one major rehabilitation centre were compared to the results of targeted beach surveys carried out at different scales by trained ornithologists: 'weekly' surveys - with a mean interval of 9 days - restricted to a fixed 16.7 km beach stretch, 'monthly' surveys over the entire coastline (62.1 km) and an annual 'international' survey in Belgium over the same distance at the end of February. Data collected through Belgian rehabilitation centres concern injured, living birds collected in a non-systematical way. Oil rates derived from these centres appear to be strongly biased to oiled auks and inshore bird species, and are hence of little use in assessing the extent of oil pollution at sea. The major asset of rehabilitation centres in terms of data collection seems to be their continuous warning function for events of mass mortality. Weekly surveys on a representative and large enough section rendered reliable data on oil rates, estimates of total number of bird victims, representation of various taxonomic groups and species-richness and were most sensitive in detecting events quickly (wrecks, oil-slicks, severe winter mortality, etc.). Monthly surveys gave comparable results, although they overlooked some important beaching events and demonstrated slightly higher oil rates, probably due to the higher chance to miss short-lasting wrecks of auks. Since the monthly surveys in Belgium were carried out by a network of volunteers and were spread over a larger beach section, they should be considered as best performing. Single 'international beached bird surveys' in February gave reliable data on total victim number (once the mean ratio between numbers in various months is known) and oil rate (provided a sufficiently large sample can be collected), but failed in tracking events. It is a particularly attractive approach because of its long tradition, resulting in invaluable long-term databases, and the uniformity in which these surveys are organised on a large scale. The minimal distance for a monthly survey amounts to 25-30 km (40-50% of Belgian coastline) up to 40 km (65%) in order to attain sound figures for oil rate and species-richness, respectively. These distances are primarily determined by the number of bird corpses that may be collected and are hence a function of beaching intensity and corpse detection rate.     

Modelling centennial sediment waves in an eroding landscape – catchment complexity

Sediment flux dynamics in fluvial systems have often been related to changes in external drivers of topography, climate or land cover. It is well known that these dynamics are non‐linear. Recently, model simulations of fluvial activity and landscape evolution have suggested that self‐organization in landscapes can also cause internal complexity in the sedimentary record. In this contribution one particular case of self‐organization is explored in the Sabinal field study area, Spain, where several dynamic zones of sedimentation and incision are observed along the current river bed. Whether these zones can be caused by internal complexity was tested with landscape evolution model (LEM) LAPSUS (Landscape Process Modelling at Multi‐dimensions and Scales). During various 500 year simulations, zones of sedimentation appear to move upstream and downstream in eroding river channels (‘waves’). These waves are visualized and characterized for a range of model settings under constant external forcing, and the self‐organizing process behind their occurrence is analysed. Results indicate that this process is not necessarily related to simplifications in the model and is more generic than the process of bed‐armouring that has recently been recognized as a cause for complexity in LEM simulations. We conclude that autogenic sediment waves are the result of the spatial propagation in time of feedbacks in local transport limited (deposition) and detachment limited (erosion) conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heavy metal contamination in overbank sediments of the Geul river (East Belgium): Its relation to former Pb-Zn mining activities

Overbank sediments of the Geul River (East Belgium) are highly contaminated by the heavy metals Pb, Zn, and Cd due to former Pb-Zn mining activities in the drainage basin. Geochemical variations in vertical overbank sediment profiles sampled 1 km north of the mine tailings of Plombiéres allow metal fluxes back to the 17th century to be reconstructed. The vertical profiles are subdivided into three major units corresponding to different industrial periods based on sedimentological criteria as well as on the distribution of contaminants. Alluvial sediments with the highest heavy metal concentrations correspond to the major period of mining activity of the 19th century. The fact that Zn mining at the La Calamine open mine started before large-scale mining of the PbS-ZnS subsurface exploitations is reflected in the vertical profiles by an increase in Zn content before a marked increase in Pb and Cu. The regional extent of contamination in the alluvial deposits was evaluated on the basis of the geochemical analysis of sediments at depths of the 0–20 cm and 80–100 cm. Most of the upper samples are extremely contaminated. Significant local variations in heavy metal concentration in the lower samples are interpreted in terms of which overbank sediment horizon has been sampled at a depth of 80–100 cm. This indicates that blind sampling of overbank sediments to characterize the degree of contamination in shallow boreholes can give very erratic results.     

Reconstructing Phreatic Palaeogroundwater Levels in a Geoarchaeological Context: A Case Study in Flanders,Belgium

The complex debate on prehistoric settlement decisions is no longer tackled from a purely archaeological perspective but from a more landscape‐oriented manner combined with archaeological evidence. Therefore, reconstruction of several components of the former landscape is needed. Here, we focus on the reconstruction of the groundwater table based on modeling. The depth of the phreatic aquifer influences, for example, soil formation processes and vegetation type. Furthermore, it directly influences settlement by the wetness of a site. Palaeogroundwater modeling of the phreatic aquifer was carried out to produce a series of full‐coverage maps of the mean water table depth between 12.7 ka and the middle of the 20th century (1953) in Flanders, Belgium. The research focuses on the reconstruction of the input data and boundary conditions of the model and the model calibration. The model was calibrated for the 1924–1953 time period using drainage class maps. Archaeological site data and podzol occurrence data act as proxies for local drainage conditions over periods in the past. They also served as a control on the simulated phreatic palaeogroundwater levels. Model quality testing on an independent validation data set showed that the model predicts phreatic water table levels at the time of soil mapping well (mean error of 1.8 cm; root mean square error of 65.6 cm). Simulated hydrological conditions were in agreement with the occurrence of archaeological sites of Mesolithic to Roman age at 96% of the validation locations, and also with the occurrence of well‐drained podzols at 97% of the validation locations.     

Sulfur and iron speciation in surface sediments along the northwestern margin of the Black Sea

The speciation of sedimentary sulfur (pyrite, acid volatile sulfides (AVS), S⁰, H₂S, and sulfate) was analyzed in surface sediments recovered at different water depths from the northwestern margin of the Black Sea. Additionally, dissolved and dithionite-extractable iron were quantified, and the sulfur isotope ratios in pyrite were measured. Sulfur and iron cycling in surface sediments of the northwestern part of the Black Sea is largely influenced by (1) organic matter supply to the sediment, (2) availability of reactive iron compounds and (3) oxygen concentrations in the bottom waters. Biologically active, accumulating sediments just in front of the river deltas were characterized by high AVS contents and a fast depletion of sulfate concentration with depth, most likely due to high sulfate reduction rates (SRR). The δ³⁴S values of pyrite in these sediments were relatively heavy (−8‰ to −21‰ vs. V-CDT). On the central shelf, where benthic mineralization rates are lower, re-oxidation processes may become more important and result in pyrite extremely depleted in δ³⁴S (−39‰ to −46‰ vs. V-CDT). A high variability in δ³⁴S values of pyrite in sediments from the shelf-edge (−6‰ to −46‰ vs. V-CDT) reflects characteristic fluctuations in the oxygen concentrations of bottom waters or varying sediment accumulation rates. During periods of oxic conditions or low sediment accumulation rates, re-oxidation processes became important resulting in low AVS concentrations and light δ³⁴S values. Anoxic conditions in the bottom waters overlying shelf-edge sediments or periods of high accumulation rates are reflected in enhanced AVS contents and heavier sulfur isotope values. The sulfur and iron contents and the light and uniform pyrite isotopic composition (−37‰ to −39‰ vs. V-CDT) of sediments in the permanently anoxic deep sea (1494 m water depth) reflect the formation of pyrite in the upper part of the sulfidic water column and the anoxic surface sediment. The present study demonstrates that pyrite, which is extremely depleted in ³⁴S, can be found in the Black Sea surface sediments that are positioned both above and below the chemocline, despite differences in biogeochemical and microbial controlling factors.     

First survey of fishes in the Betty's Bay Marine Protected Area along South Africa's temperate south-west coast

This first survey of fish in the Betty's Bay Marine Protected Area (MPA), on the south coast of South Africa, was conducted using baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVs). A total of 58 deployments recorded 42 species in 20?km², including reef, kelp and sand habitats in protected and exploited zones, at between 5 and 40?m depth. Chondrichthyans accounted for 28% of diversity. Teleost diversity was dominated by Sparidae, Cheilodactylidae, Sciaenidae and Ariidae. Diversity (H′) was highest in kelp and lowest over sand. Species composition differed among habitat and depths, but protection had no effect. Among four commercial species, only Pachymetopon blochii responded positively to protection. The apparent failure of protection may attest to poor compliance, but an investigation into fish size might show an effect. Many species were detected at the western extreme of their range. Diversity in Betty's Bay was predictably lower than in the more eastward Stilbaai MPA, but also lower than in the westward Table Mountain National Park MPA. Fish diversity did not follow a linear increase eastwards from Cape Point. Betty's Bay includes the most easterly protected kelp forests and contains seven species not recorded in the other two areas, and is therefore an important element in the MPA network.