Gully-head morphology and implications for gully development on abandoned fields in a semi-arid environment,Sierra de Gata,southeast Spain

In this paper we examine whether gully-head morphology can be used as an indicator for gully development and, hence, for sediment production. A survey was conducted at five hillslopes in the Sierra de Gata where different types of channel heads occur close to each other. The survey included measurements of morphologic and pedologic properties, ground surface, channel and catchment characteristics of every gully head present (n = 59). On the basis of the observed morphologies, the heads were subdivided into four types: gradual, transitional (a short inclined section), abrupt and rilled-abrupt. The analyses showed that it is possible to explain the differences of gully heads and the role of some environmental factors on the basis of their morphologies, at least for the gradual and the abrupt types. The results suggested that steep headcuts (abrupt) were formed from secondary headcuts in the channel, which migrated upstream. The abrupt headcuts were always formed in more than one soil layer of which one was a resistant (stony) layer. However, shear strength measurements (at saturation) showed that the top layer was not always the most resistant one. Width–depth relationships indicated that gradual type headcuts were controlled by fluvial processes and abrupt headcuts by a combination of fluvial and mass-wasting processes. Gradual types occurred more downslope than the abrupt types suggesting that the incisions started by fluvial processes and migrated upwards when knickpoints developed in the channel. The rilled-abrupt types are still actively retreating. Thus, the abrupt types correspond to slower retreat rates. Abrupt gully heads may deteriorate into transitional types when plunge-pool erosion becomes less effective. The conceptual model is supported by data from ephemeral gullies in two other study areas (Sierra de la Torrecilla, Spain, and Alentejo, Portugal). Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology? Discussion of “Prediction in a socio-hydrological world”*

Srinivasan et al. provide an interesting overview of the challenges for long-term socio-hydrological predictions. Although agreeing with most of the statements made, we argue for the need to take socio-hydrological analysis a step further and add some fundamental considerations, especially concerning the crucial importance of many (conscious and unconscious) assumptions made upfront of the modelling exercise. Eventual assumptions of technological determinism need correction: Models are not “value-free”, but uncertain, subjective and a product of the society in which they were shaped. It is important to acknowledge this uncertainty and bias when making decisions based on socio-hydrological models, considering also that these models are “social and political actors” in and by themselves. Furthermore, socio-hydrological models require a transdisciplinary approach, since physical water availability is only one of the boundary conditions for society. Last but not least, interaction with stakeholders remains important to enable understanding of what the variable of interest is.     

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.     

A Bayesian Statistical Analysis of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

This paper demonstrates that there is a robust statistical relationship between the records of the global mean surface air temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide over the period 1870–1991. As such, the enhanced greenhouse effect is a plausible explanation for the observed global warming. Long term natural variability is another prime candidate for explaining the temperature rise of the last century. Analysis of natural variability from paleo-reconstructions, however, shows that human activity is so much more likely an explanation that the earlier conclusion is not refuted. But, even if one believes in large natural climatic variability, the odds are invariably in favour of the enhanced greenhouse effect. The above conclusions hold for a range of statistical models, including one that is capable of describing the stabilization of the global mean temperature from the 1940s to the 1970s onwards. This model is also shown to be otherwise statistically adequate. The estimated climate sensitivity is about 3.8 °C with a standard deviation of 0.9 °C, but depends slightly on which model is preferred and how much natural variability is allowed. These estimates neglect, however, the fact that carbon dioxide is but one of a number of greenhouse gases and that sulphate aerosols may well have dampened warming. Acknowledging the fact that carbon dioxide is used as a proxy for all human induced changes in radiative forcing brings a lot of additional uncertainty. Prior knowledge on both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing is needed to say anything about the respective sizes. A fully Bayesian approach is used to combine expert knowledge with information from the observations. Prior knowledge on the climate sensitivity plays a dominant role. The data largely exclude climate sensitivity to be small, but cannot exclude climate sensitivity to be large, because of the possibility of strong negative sulphate forcing. The posterior of climate sensitivity has a strong positive skewness. Moreover, its mode (again 3.8 °C; standard deviation 2.4 °C) is higher than the best guess of the IPCC.     

Information systems playground—the target infrastructure

The Target infrastructure has been specially built as a storage and compute infrastructure for the information systems derived from Astro-WISE. This infrastructure will be used by several applications that collaborate in the area of information systems within the Target project. It currently consists of 10 PB of storage and thousands of computational cores. The infrastructure has been constructed based on the requirements of the applications. The storage is controlled by the Global Parallel File System of IBM. This file system takes care of the required flexibility by combining storage hardware with different characteristics into a single file system. It is also very scalable, which allows the system to be extended into the future, while replacing old hardware with new technology.     

A Comprehensive Modelling Approach for the Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Consistent Inflow Conditions, Wall Function and Turbulence Model

We report on a novel approach for the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modelling of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), using the standard k-ek-{\varepsilon} turbulence model. A new inlet condition for turbulent kinetic energy is analytically derived from the solution of the k-ek-{\varepsilon} model transport equations, resulting in a consistent set of fully developed inlet conditions for the neutral ABL. A modification of the standard k-ek-{\varepsilon} model is also employed to ensure consistency between the inlet conditions and the turbulence model. In particular, the turbulence model constant C _μ is generalized as a location-dependent parameter, and a source term is introduced in the transport equation for the turbulent dissipation rate. The application of the proposed methodology to cases involving obstacles in the flow is made possible through the implementation of an algorithm, which automatically switches the turbulence model formulation when going from the region where the ABL is undisturbed to the region directly affected by the building. Finally, the model is completed with a slightly modified version of the Richards and Hoxey rough-wall boundary condition. The methodology is implemented and tested in the commercial code Ansys Fluent 12.1. Results are presented for a neutral boundary layer over flat terrain and for the flow around a single building immersed in an ABL.     

Evaluation of the antarctic surface wind climate from ERA reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT simulations based on automatic weather stations

A continental scale evaluation of Antarctic surface winds is presented from global ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT regional climate model at 55 and 27 km horizontal resolution, based on a comparison with observational data from 115 automatic weather stations (AWS). The Antarctic surface wind climate can be classified based on the Weibull shape factor k _w . Very high values (k _w  > 3) are found in the interior plateaus, typical of very uniform katabatic-dominated winds with high directional constancy. In the coast and all over the Antarctic Peninsula the shape factors are similar to the ones found in mid-latitudes (k _w  < 3) typical of synoptically dominated wind climates. The Weibull shape parameter is systematically overpredicted by ERA reanalyses. This is partly corrected by RACMO2/ANT simulations which introduce more wind speed variability in complex terrain areas. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA-Interim over ERA-40, with an overall decrease of 14 % in normalized mean absolute error. In escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, ERA-Interim bias can be as high as 10 m s^?1. These large deviations are partly corrected by the regional climate model. Given that RACMO2/ANT is an independent simulation of the near-surface wind speed climate, as it is not driven by observations, it compares very well to the ERA-Interim and AWS-115 datasets.     

Wave run-up on slender piles in design conditions — Model tests and design rules for offshore wind

Wave run-up on foundations is a very important factor in the design of entrance platforms for offshore wind turbines. When the Horns Reef 1 wind turbine park in Denmark was designed the vertical wave run-up phenomenon was not well known in the industry, hence not sufficiently considered in the design of Horns Reef 1. As a consequence damage was observed on the platforms. This has been the situation for several sites and design tools for platform loads are lacking. As a consequence a physical model test study was initiated at Aalborg University to clarify wave run-up on cylindrical piles for different values of diameter to water depth ratios (D/h) and different wave heights to water depth ratios (H/h) for both regular and irregular waves. A calculation model is calibrated based on stream function theory for crest kinematics and velocity head stagnation theory. Due to increased velocities close to the pile an empirical factor is included on the velocity head. The evaluation of the calculation model shows that an accurate design rule can be established even in breaking wave conditions. However, calibration of a load model showed that it was necessary to increase the run-up factor on the velocity head by 40% to take into account the underestimation of run-up for breaking or nearly breaking waves given that they produce thin run-up wedges and air entrainment, two factors not coped with by the measurement system.