Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century

Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Netherlands. We show that the total amount of urban area that can potentially become inundated due to floods from the sea or main rivers has increased six-fold during the 20th century, and may double again during the 21st century. Moreover, these developments took, and probably will take, place in areas with progressively higher potential inundation depths. Potential flood damage has increased exponentially over the 20th century (16 times) and is expected to continue to increase exponentially (∼ten-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a high economic growth scenario. Flood damages increase more moderately (two- to three-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a low growth scenario. The capacity to deal with catastrophic flood losses - expressed as the ratio damage/GDP - will, however, decrease slightly in the low growth scenario (by about 20%). This trend deviates from the historical trend of the 20th century, which shows an increasing capacity to cope with flood damage (almost doubling). Under the high growth scenario the capacity to deal with such losses eventually increases slightly (by about 25%). These findings illustrate that, despite higher projections of potential flood damage, high economic growth scenarios may not necessarily be worse than low growth scenarios in terms of the impact of floods.     

Novel applications of fluid inclusions and isotope geochemistry in unravelling the genesis of fossil travertine systems

The Denizli Basin is a fault‐bounded Neogene–Quaternary depression located in the Western Anatolian Extensional Province, Western Turkey. The basin is a unique geological site with abundant active and fossil (Quaternary) travertine and tufa deposits. Fluid inclusion microthermometry and isotopic analysis were applied to study the genesis of the Ball?k fossil travertine deposits, located in the south‐eastern part of the basin. Microthermometry on fluid inclusions indicates that the main travertine precipitating and cementing fluids are characterized by low salinity (<0·7 wt% NaCl equivalent) and variable temperatures that cluster at <50°C and ca 100°C. Fluids of meteoric origin have been heated by migration to the deeper subsurface, possibly in a local high geothermal gradient setting. A later uncommon cementation phase is related to a fluid with a significantly higher salinity (25·5 to 26·0 wt% bulk). The fluid obtained its salinity by interaction with Late Triassic evaporite layers. Strontium isotopes indicate that the parent carbonate source rock of the different travertine precipitates is very likely to be the Triassic limestone of the Lycian Nappes. Carbon isotopes suggest that the parent CO₂ gas originated from thermal decarbonation of the Lycian limestones with minor contributions of magmatic degassing and organic soil CO₂. Oxygen isotopes confirm the meteoric origin of the fluids and indicate disequilibrium precipitation because of evaporation and degassing. Results were integrated within the available geological data of the Denizli Basin in a generalized travertine precipitation model, which enhanced the understanding of fossil travertine systems. The study highlights the novel application of fluid inclusion research in unravelling the genesis of continental carbonates and provides several recommendations for hydrocarbon exploration in travertine‐bearing sedimentary basins. The findings suggest that travertine bodies and their parent carbonate source rocks have the potential to constitute interesting subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs.     

Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse,northwest Europe)

We used a calibrated coupled climate–hydrological model to simulate Meuse discharge over the late Holocene (4000–3000 BP and 1000–2000 AD). We then used this model to simulate discharge in the twenty-first century under SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1, with and without future land use change. Mean discharge and medium-sized high-flow (e.g. Q₉₉) frequency are higher in 1000–2000 AD than in 4000–3000 BP; almost all of this increase can be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture. In the twentieth century, mean discharge and the frequency of medium-sized high-flow events are higher than in the nineteenth century; this increase can be attributed to increased (winter half-year) precipitation. Between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, anthropogenic climate change causes a further increase in discharge and medium-sized high-flow frequency; this increase is of a similar order of magnitude to the changes over the last 4,000 years. The magnitude of extreme flood events (return period 1,250-years) is higher in the twenty-first century than in any preceding period of the time-slices studied. In contrast to the long-term influence of deforestation on mean discharge, changes in forest cover have had little effect on these extreme floods, even on the millennial timescale.     

Numerical investigation of alternative fracture stiffness measures and their respective scaling behaviours

We study the mechanical deformation of fractures under normal stress, via tangent and specific fracture stiffnesses, for different length scales using numerical simulations and analytical insights. First, we revisit an equivalent elastic layer model that leads to two expressions: the tangent stiffness is the sum of an “intrinsic” stiffness and the normal stress, and the specific stiffness is the tangent stiffness divided by the fracture aperture at current stress. Second, we simulate the deformation of rough fractures using a boundary element method where fracture surfaces represented by elastic asperities on an elastic half‐space follow a self‐affine distribution. A large number of statistically identical “parent” fractures are generated, from which sub‐fractures of smaller dimensions are extracted. The self‐affine distribution implies that the stress‐free fracture aperture increases with fracture length with a power law in agreement with the chosen Hurst exponent. All simulated fractures exhibit an increase in the specific stiffness with stress and an average decrease with increase in length consistent with field observations. The simulated specific and tangent stiffnesses are well described by the equivalent layer model provided the “intrinsic” stiffness slightly decreases with fracture length following a power law. By combining numerical simulations and the analytical model, the effect of scale and stress on fracture stiffness measures can be easily separated using the concept of “intrinsic” stiffness. We learn that the primary reason for the variability in specific stiffness with length comes from the fact that the typical aperture of the self‐affine fractures itself scales with the length of the fractures.     

Inputs of iron,manganese and aluminium to surface waters of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the European continental shelf

Dissolved Fe, Mn and Al concentrations (dFe, dMn and dAl hereafter) in surface waters and the water column of the Northeast Atlantic and the European continental shelf are reported. Following an episode of enhanced Saharan dust inputs over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean prior and during the cruise in March 1998, surface concentrations were enhanced up to 4 nmol L^− 1 dFe, 3 nmol L^− 1 dMn and 40 nmol L^− 1 dAl and returned to 0.6 nmol L^− 1 dFe, 0.5 nmol L^− 1 dMn and 10 nmol L^− 1 dAl towards the end of the cruise three weeks later. A simple steady state model (MADCOW, [Measures, C.I., Brown, E.T., 1996. Estimating dust input to the Atlantic Ocean using surface water aluminium concentrations. In: Guerzoni. S. and Chester. R. (Eds.), The impact of desert dust across the Mediterranean, Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp. 301–311.]) was used which relies on surface ocean dAl as a proxy for atmospheric deposition of mineral dust. We estimated dust input at 1.8 g m^− 2 yr^− 1 (range 1.0–2.9 g m^− 2 yr^− 1) and fluxes of dFe, dMn and dAl were inferred. Mixed layer steady state residence times for dissolved metals were estimated at 1.3 yr for dFe (range 0.3–2.9 yr) and 1.9 yr for dMn (range 1.0–3.8 yr). The dFe residence time may have been overestimated and it is shown that 0.2–0.4 yr is probably more realistic. Using vertical dFe versus Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationships as well as a biogeochemical two end member mixing model, regenerative Fe:C ratios were estimated respectively to be 20 ± 6 and 22 ± 5 μmol Fe:mol C. Combining the atmospheric flux of dFe to the upper water column with the latter Fe:C ratio, a ‘new iron’ supported primary productivity of only 15% (range 7%–56%) was deduced. This would imply that 85% (range 44–93%) of primary productivity could be supported by regenerated dFe. The open ocean surface data suggest that the continental shelf is probably not a major source of dissolved metals to the surface of the adjacent open ocean. Continental shelf concentrations of dMn, dFe, and to a lesser extent dAl, were well correlated with salinity and express mixing of a fresher continental end member with Atlantic Ocean water flowing onto the shelf. This means probably that diffusive benthic fluxes did not play a major role at the time of the cruise.     

Is there a first-order discontinuity in the lowermost mantle?

In 1983, Lay and Helmberger [Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 75 (1983) 799–837] reported the detection of a precursor to the seismic phase ScS. They attributed this precursor to a sharp seismic discontinuity located several hundred kilometers above the core–mantle boundary. Such a lowermost mantle discontinuity implies the existence of a sharp phase change or a chemical boundary. Precursors to ScS and, less frequently, PcP have since been observed in numerous locations, but are not a global phenomenon. Frequently, PcP precursors are weak or absent when ScS precursors are observed in the same location, and vice versa. There can be significant variations in the amplitude and arrival time of the precursor relative to the main phase. The presence or absence of these precursors has led to speculations about the nature of the lowermost mantle. Here we demonstrate that ScS or PcP precursors may be produced by gradients in seismic wave speed associated with large-scale lowermost mantle heterogeneity. Rather than a phase or chemical boundary with substantial topography, such gradients require lateral variations in temperature and, close to the core–mantle boundary, composition.     

On the role of subducting oceanic plateaus in the development of shallow flat subduction

Oceanic plateaus, aseismic ridges or seamount chains all have a thickened crust and their subduction has been proposed as a possible mechanism to explain the occurrence of flat subduction and related absence of arc magmatism below Peru, Central Chile and at the Nankai Trough (Japan). Their extra compositional buoyancy could prohibit the slab from sinking into the mantle. With a numerical thermochemical convection model, we simulated the subduction of an oceanic lithosphere that contains an oceanic crustal plateau of 18-km thickness. With a systematic variation, we examined the required physical parameters to obtain shallow flat subduction. Metastability of the basaltic crust in the eclogite stability field is of crucial importance for the slab to remain buoyant throughout the subduction process. In a 44-Ma-old subducting plate, basalt must be able to survive a temperature of 600–700 °C to keep the plate buoyant sufficiently long to cause a flat-slab segment. We found that the maximum yield stress in the slab must be limited to about 600 MPa to allow for the necessary bending to the horizontal. Young slabs show flat subduction for larger parameter ranges than old slabs, since they are less gravitationally unstable and show less resistance against bending. Hydrous weakening of the mantle wedge area and lowermost continent are required to allow for the necessary deformation of a change in subduction style from steep to flat. The maximum flat slab extent is about 300 km, which is sufficient to explain the observed shallow flat subduction near the Nankai Trough (Japan). However, additional mechanisms, such as active overthrusting by an overriding continental plate, need to be invoked to explain the flat-slab segments up to 500 km long below Peru and Central Chile.