Latent heat effects of the major mantle phase transitions on low-angle subduction

Very low to zero shallow dip angles are observed at several moderately young subduction zones with an active trenchward moving overriding plate. We have investigated the effects of latent heat for this situation, where mantle material is pushed through the major mantle phase transitions during shallow low-angle subduction below the overriding plate. The significance of the buoyancy forces, arising from the latent heat effects, on the dynamics of the shallowly subducting slab is examined by numerical modeling. When a 32-Ma-old slab is overridden with 2.5 cm/yr by a continent, flat subduction occurs with a 4–5 cm/yr convergence rate. When latent heat is included in the model, forced downwellings cause a thermal anomaly and consequently thermal and phase buoyancy forces. Under these circumstances, the flat slab segment subducts horizontally about 350 km further and for about 11 Ma longer than in the case without latent heat, before it breaks through the 400-km phase transition. The style of subduction strongly depends on the mantle rheology: increasing the mantle viscosity by one order of magnitude can change the style of subduction from steep to shallow. Similarly, an overriding velocity of less than 1 cm/yr leads to steep subduction, which gradually changes to flat subduction when increasing the overriding velocity. However, these model parameters do not change the aforementioned effect of the latent heat, provided that low-angle subduction occurs. In all models latent heat resulted in a substantial increase of the flat slab length by 300–400 km. Varying the olivine–spinel transition Clapeyron slope γ from 1 to 6 MPa/K reveals a roughly linear relation between γ and the horizontal length of the slab. Based on these results, we conclude that buoyancy forces due to latent heat of phase transitions play an important role in low-angle subduction below an overriding plate.     

南加州地壳的伴随层析成像

使用基于伴随方法的反演策略,研制出了南加州地壳的三维地震模型。该模型涉及到16次层析成像迭代,需要6800次波场模拟和总计80万个中心处理单位小时。与南加州地震中心给出的最初三维模型比较,该新的地壳模型揭示了更强的非均匀性,包括±30%的局部变化。模型说明了诸如沉积盆地和横跨断层的构造反差的浅部特征。也揭示了深部的地壳特征,从而帮助重建诸如俯冲捕获洋壳碎块的南加州构造。新模型有助于对地震危险性做出更实际而准确的评估。     

Mortality by cause of death in Colombia: a local analysis using spatial econometrics

Journal of Geographical Systems - Colombia is undergoing major changes in mortality patterns. National- and department-level cause-specific analyses have previously been carried out, but very...     

ESR dating of tooth enamel in Mousterian layer 20, El Castillo,Spain

Nine faunal teeth from layer 20 of El Castillo cave in Cantabrian Spain were dated using electron spin resonance (ESR). Two teeth were rejected due to inconsistent subsample ages, while the remaining teeth yielded a mean age that is consistent with the stratigraphic expectations: 42.7±3.5. Uncertainty in the external γ dose rate results in a potential systematic uncertainty of±6.4ka that should affect all samples equally. The results provide independent confirmation of previously reported ¹⁴C ages for layer 20. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy

This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a widespread concern that a climate agreement will be very costly. This article considers the well-known Human Development Index (HDI) as an alternative criterion for judging the welfare effects of climate policy. We estimate what the maximum possible annual average increase in HDI welfare per tons of CO₂ would be within the carbon budget associated with limiting warming to 2°C over the period 2015–2050. Emission pathways are determined by a policy that allows the HDI of poor countries and their emissions to increase under a business-as-usual development path, while countries with a high HDI value (>0.8) have to restrain their emissions to ensure that the global temperature rise does not exceed 2°C. For comparison, the well-known multi-regional RICE model is used to assess GDP growth under the same climate change policy goals.

Policy relevance

This is the first study that shifts the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of GDP growth to a message of improving social welfare, as captured by the HDI. This could make it easier for political leaders and climate negotiators to publicly commit themselves to ambitious carbon emission reduction goals, such as limiting global warming to 2°C, as in the (non-binding) agreement made at COP 21 in Paris in 2015. We find that if impacts are framed in terms of growth in HDI per t CO₂ emission per capita instead of in GDP, the HDI of poor countries and their emissions are allowed to increase under a business-as-usual development path, whereas countries with a high HDI (>0.8) must control emissions so that global temperature rise remains within 2°C. Importantly, a climate agreement is more attractive for rich countries under the HDI than the GDP frame. This is good news, as these countries have to make the major contribution to emissions reductions.     

Climate change,income and happiness: An empirical study for Barcelona

The present article builds upon the results of an empirical study exploring key factors which determine life satisfaction in Barcelona. Based on a sample of 840 individuals we first look at the way changes in income, notably income reductions, associated with the current economic situation in Spain, affect subjective well-being. Income decreases which occur with respect to one year ago have a negative effect on happiness when specified in logarithmic terms, and a positive one when specified as a dummy variable (and percentage change). The divergence in results is discussed and various explanations are put forward. Both effects are however temporary and do not hold for a period longer than a year, probably for reasons of adaptation and a downward adjustment of reference consumption and income levels. Next, we examine the implications of experiencing forest fires and find a lasting negative effect on life satisfaction. Our results suggest that climate policy need not reduce happiness in the long run, even when it reduces income and carbon-intensive consumption. Climate policy may even raise life well-being, if accompanied by compensatory measures that decrease formal working hours and reference consumption standards, while maintaining employment security.     

The value of a physically based model versus an empirical approach in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion for loess-derived soils

A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L^1.29; R²=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.