Sea‐ice dynamics and CO2 sensitivity in a global climate model

Abstract

Present‐day results and CO₂ sensitivity are described for two versions of a global climate model (genesis) with and without sea‐ice dynamics. Sea‐ice dynamics is modelled using the cavitating‐fluid method of Flato and Hibler (1990, 1992). The atmospheric general circulation model originated from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1, but is heavily modified to include new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary‐layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle and the semi‐Lagrangian transport of water vapour. The surface models include an explicit model of vegetation (similar to BATS and SiB), multilayer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a slab ocean mixed layer.

When sea‐ice dynamics is turned off, the CO₂‐induced warming increases drastically around ～60–80°S in winter and spring. This is due to the much greater (and unrealistic) compactness of the Antarctic ice cover without dynamics, which is reduced considerably when CO₂ is doubled and exposes more open ocean to the atmosphere. With dynamics, the winter ice is already quite dispersed for 1 × CO₂ so that its compactness does not decrease as much when CO₂ is doubled.     

Macrofauna along the Sudanese Red Sea coast: potential effect of mangrove clearance on community and trophic structure

Mangroves along the Sudanese Red Sea coast are under constant anthropogenic pressure. To better understand the influence of mangrove clearance on the intertidal benthic community, we investigated the composition, biodiversity and standing stock of the macrofauna communities at high‐, mid‐ and low‐water levels in three contrasting habitats: a bare sand flat, a cleared mangrove and an intact mangrove. In addition, a community‐wide metric approach based on taxon‐specific carbon and nitrogen isotope values was used to compare the trophic structure between the three habitats. The habitats differed significantly in terms of macrofaunal standing stock, community composition and trophic structure. The high‐ and mid‐water levels of the intact mangroves showed a distinct macrofaunal community characterized by elevated densities and biomass, largely governed by higher decapod and gastropod abundances. Diversity was similar for cleared and intact mangroves, but much lower for the bare sand flat. Community‐wide metrics indicated highest trophic diversity and community niche breadth in the intact mangroves. Differences between the cleared and intact mangroves can be partly attributed to differences in sediment characteristics resulting from mangrove clearance. These results suggest a significant impact of mangrove clearance on the macrofaunal community and trophic structure. This study calls for further investigations and management actions to protect and restore these habitats, and ensure the survival of this ecologically valuable coastal ecosystem.     

Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

In Situ Observations of Solar Wind Stream Interface Evolution

The heliocentric orbits of the two STEREO satellites are similar in radius and ecliptic latitude, with separation in longitude increasing by about 45° per year. This arrangement provides a unique opportunity to study the evolution of stream interfaces near 1 AU over time scales of hours to a few days, much less than the period of a Carrington rotation. Assuming nonevolving solar wind sources that corotate with the Sun, we calculated the expected time and longitude of arrival of stream interfaces at the Ahead observatory based on the in situ solar wind speeds measured at the Behind observatory. We find agreement to within 5° between the expected and actual arrival longitude until the spacecraft are separated by more than 20° in heliocentric inertial longitude. This corresponds to about one day between the measurement times. Much larger deviations, up to 25° in longitude, are observed after 20° separation. Some of the deviations can be explained by a latitude difference between the spacecraft, but other deviations most likely result from evolution of the source region. Both remote and in situ measurements show that changes at the source boundary can occur on a time scale much shorter than one solar rotation. In 32 of 41 cases, the interface was observed earlier than expected at STEREO/Ahead.     

A review on stochastic differential equations for applications in hydrology

Fundamentals of the theory of stochastic calculus and stochastic differential equations (SDE's) which are finding increasing application in water resources engineering are reviewed. The basics of probability theory, mean square calculus and the Wiener, white Gaussian and compound Poisson processes are given in preparation for a discussion of the general Itô SDE with drift, diffusion and jump discontinuity terms driven by Gaussian white noise and compound Poissionian impulses. Also discussed are stochastic integration and the derivation of moment equations via the Itô differential rule. The lierature of SDE's is reviewed with an emphasis on the more accessible sources.     

δ18O record and temperature change over the past 100 years in ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau

The 213 m ice core from the Puruogangri Ice Field on the Tibetan Plateau facilitates the study of the regional temperature changes with its δ18O record of the past 100 years. Here we combine information from this core with that from the Dasuopu ice core (from the southern Tibetan Plateau), the Guliya ice core (from the northwestern Plateau) and the Dunde ice core (from the northeastern Plateau) to learn about the regional differences in temperature change across the Tibetan Plateau. The δ18O changes vary with region on the Plateau, the variations being especially large between South and North and between East and West. Moreover, these four ice cores present increasing δ18O trends, indicating warming on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 100 years. A comparative study of Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature changes, the δ18O-reflected temperature changes on the Plateau, and available meteorological records show consistent trends in overall warming during the past 100 years.     

Contrasting oceanographic conditions and phytoplankton communities on the east and west coasts of Australia

The composition and dynamics of the phytoplankton communities and hydrographic factors that control them are described for eastern and western Australia with a focus on the Eastern Australian Current (EAC) and Leeuwin Current (LC) between 27.5° and 34.5°S latitude. A total of 1685 samples collected from 1996 to 2010 and analysed for pigments by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) showed the average TChla (monovinyl+divinyl chlorophyll a) concentration on the west coast to be 0.28±0.16 ??g L⁻¹ while it was 0.58±1.4 ??g L⁻¹ on the east coast. Both coasts showed significant decreases in the proportions of picoplankton and relatively more nanoplankton and microplankton with increasing latitude. On both coasts the phytoplankton biomass (by SeaWiFS) increased with the onset of winter. At higher latitudes (>27.5°S) the southeast coast developed a spring bloom (September) when the mean monthly, surface chlorophyll a (chla) concentration (by SeaWiFS) was 48% greater than on the south west coast. In this southern region (27.5-34.5°S) Synechococcus was the dominant taxon with 60% of the total biomass in the southeast (SE) and 43% in the southwest (SW). Both the SE and SW regions had similar proportions of haptophytes; ∼14% of the phytoplankton community. The SW coast had relatively more pelagophytes, prasinophytes, cryptophytes, chlorophytes and less bacillariophytes and dinophytes. These differences in phytoplankton biomass and community composition reflect the differences in seasonality of the 2 major boundary currents, the influence this has on the vertical stability of the water column and the average availability of nutrients in the euphotic zone. Seasonal variation in mixed layer depth and upwelling on the west coast appears to be suppressed by the Leeuwin Current. The long-term depth averaged (0-100 m) nitrate concentration on the west coast was only 14% of the average concentration on the east coast. Redfield ratios for NO₃:SiO₂:PO₄ were 6.5:11.9:1 on the east coast and 2.2:16.2:1 on the west coast. Thus new production (nitrate based) on the west coast was likely to be substantially more limited than on the eastcoast. Short term (hourly) rates of vertical mixing were greater on the east coast. The more stable water column on the west coast produced deeper subsurface chlorophyll a maxima with a 25% greater proportion of picoeukaryotes.